Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Tim Elliott
| Flyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov Odds | -250 |
| Tim Elliott Odds | +200 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-175 / +145) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Tagir Ulanbekov (63.7%)
I provided Elliott as my favorite underdog bet on Friday's Action Network podcast.
He's getting up there in age for flyweight, but his strength of schedule stands on par with any current fighter in his division. Elliott has good metrics (+0.82 strike differential, 101 combined striking accuracy, and defense) over a large sample size and good opponents.
Most recently, Elliott won extended striking exchanges last October with a flyweight who I rate highly — and bet — in Matheus Nicolau but lost because his corner mistakenly decided that he was up 2-0 on rounds in the fight. Elliott never attempted to get out from the bottom position in the final two minutes of the third round.
Ulanbekov hasn't impressed in the UFC. I'm not sure that any fighter has had as much control time (12:04) in a 15-minute fight and failed to win a unanimous decision. He's a solid offensive wrestler and applies decent pressure from the top position, but he doesn't necessarily do anything with his takedowns.
Ulanbekov's takedown defense is below his takedown offense, and his striking volume at a distance is meager.
Elliott should be able to dictate the pace of the fight on the feet by creating awkward angles and kicking Ulanbekov's leg, and he has some offensive wrestling upside of his own (3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, 45% accuracy) to turn this fight into an absolute grind.
I certainly favor the younger fighter in terms of cardio, and I'm worried about Elliott losing a split decision on the thinnest of margins in the late stages. Still, he's a very worthy bet around +200.
I bet Elliott to win by decision (listed +450, projected +293) and for the fight to go the distance (projected -201, listed -150). Swallowing the juice is likely the best approach because this has Elliott looking like he has 100% win value while Ulanbekov scores a split-decision win written all over it.
Bets
- Tim Elliott (+200, 0.5u)
- Elliott wins by Decision (+450, 0.25 units)
- Fight goes to Decision (-148, 0.5u)
