Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy Odds
Hard-hitting heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy will face off on the main card at UFC 264 in a fight between a former rugby player and former football player.
Tuivasa is coming off back-to-back TKO wins entering this fight while Hardy is looking to bounce back after getting knocked out by Marcin Tybura.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Tuivasa | Hardy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 7-3 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:18 | 7:15 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 263 lbs. | 264.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 80" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/93 | 7/28/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.38 | 4.83 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 3.12 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.21 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 33% |
| TD Def | 46% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Hardy was relatively late to the scales at Friday's weigh-ins and revealed that he had ballooned up to 340 pounds prior to training camp. That's a bad sign for an athlete who has struggled with his cardio — and asthma — throughout his UFC career.
Hardy famously used an inhaler between rounds of his 2019 bout against Ben Sosoli (overturned from a decision win to a no-contest) and gassed out quickly, after some early success, in his recent stoppage loss to Marcin Tybura.
Fortunately, the former NFL lineman is the much better athlete in the cage against Tuivasa — an Aussie Kickboxer who has more of a Butterbean physique.
Tuivasa vs. Hardy Pick
Hardy has looked supremely durable until his cardio falls off of a cliff, and Tuivasa can match Hardy's ability to absorb early damage.
Leg kicks for Tuivasa should eventually pay dividends. Hardy hasn't shown an ability to deal with that weapon, and he'll be content to stand at range and to try to use his length (5-inch reach advantage, 3-inch height advantage) to win the opening round.
If Tuivasa can keep landing leg kicks, the fight should eventually swing in his favor. I'm not fully certain that he has the better cardio between these two fighters — Hardy is such a superior athlete in general, and it's difficult to know whether his asthma will act up on a specific night.
However, Tai has shown an ability to dig deep in the past — particularly against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 225 — and I think he'll be the more effective man down the stretch.
Hardy will land the cleaner headshots in Round 1, while Tuivasa goes to work on the legs. He may drop the round on optics, but I would look for him to pull ahead late. I would gladly back Tuivasa at plus-money or a pick'em price after a close Round 1.
The pre-fight moneyline, totals, and props look about right to me on this fight, compared to my projections. Blindly, I like the over 1.5 rounds, but it has moved from -175 to -200 and is in the correct range now.
Tuivasa Round 2 (+550) or Round 3 (+100) props are also interesting, but the live angle is my preferred play; I think we get a sloppy, three-round decision.
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa Live after Round 1
