Tom Nolan (8-1) faces Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1) in the UFC 312 prelims on Saturday night at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Nolan is fresh off a unanimous victory against Alex Reyes back in August, while Borshchev's record is as inconsistent as it gets. He recently came out with a win against James Llontop but only has two wins in his last six fights.
Here's my Nolan vs. Borshchev prediction.
Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Odds
| Nolan Odds | +100 |
| Borshchev Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds -115/-115 |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena | Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Nolan vs. Borshchev Prediction, Pick
Tom Nolan is gigantic (6'3") for the lightweight division, with a four-inch height and reach advantage against Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borshchev.
Younger fighters hold a significant advantage when there's at least a seven-year age gap between UFC opponents, winning about 12% more often than their average betting odds suggest.
Still, Borshchev is the far more technical striker. He uses a diverse array of boxing combinations to the head and body, hard low kicks and the ability to switch his stance and give his opponents different looks.
Slava has had a problematic slate of matchups against grapplers in the UFC (he spent 42% of his fight time grappling) and has rarely been gifted pure striking fights until recently. He's undoubtedly the slower, less athletic fighter. Still, he has much better timing and a far higher striking IQ than Nolan (+3.2 to +1.5 strike differential per minute). His ability to rip the body pays dividends the longer his fights extend.
Nolan is the bigger, more powerful puncher but is a bit of a glass cannon. I don't think he'll make the most of his length at a distance, but I expect him to be dangerous in the clinch — where he can leverage his size into knees and elbows. The more he can grapple – or at least cage push on Slava – the better his chances; if he gives Slava the distance to make his reads, Nolan will probably get picked apart.
While Borschev doesn't have significant power in individual strikes, his body shots create attritional damage. Conversely, while Nolan doesn't have a great chin, he's won several decisions throughout his professional and amateur career despite the assumption that his frame at 155 pounds would lead to poor cardio.
Like the Topuria-Thicknesse bout, I lean toward a contrarian Over 1.5 or go to decision wager in this fight. The bout is at +250 (28.6%) to reach a decision, compared to a divisional average of about 54%.
Bet the Over 1.5 Rounds to -150, and/or play the distance prop to +200 (projected +176).
Additionally, depending on the book, I project value on either fighter to win by decision. In that market, both fighters are near +450, compared to odds of +500 for Slava and +650 for Nolan; I'd lean to the former on round-robin tickets.
Picks
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -150
- Fight Goes to Decision (+250, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +200
