Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis Odds
middleweight's Trevin Giles and Dricus du Plessis will face off in the Octagon Saturday to kick off the four-fight prelim card for UFC 264.
Giles is riding a three fight win streak that dates back to February 2020 while Du Plessis has fought just once in the UFC but has a 15-2 career record as a pro. Despite his lack of experience, Du Plessis proved to be dangerous in debut, which ended in a first-round KO victory.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Giles | Du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:31 | 3:22 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185.5 lbs. | 185.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/6/92 | 1/14/94 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.26 | 7.72 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.88 | 4.16 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.37 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 80% | 0% |
| TD Def | 79% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Du Plessis is an action fighter. All 17 of his professional MMA bouts have ended inside the distance, including his UFC debut last October.
The South African uses his leg kicks aggressively (landed 15-of-25 in under four minutes against Markus Perez), offers good power, and has shown a strong choke submission game.
The leg kicks and the chokes pose major problems for Giles, who has been submitted twice by Guillotine in the UFC. His output is unreliable, and he doesn't have the best gas tank, but Giles does offer power, and Du Plessis is very hittable.
If he doesn't wander into the pocket with his chin up, Du Plessis should be able to destroy Giles' lead leg, drag him to the ground, and choke him out. But I have major concerns about his defensive shortcomings too, and I think it's a matter of time before a UFC fighter finds the mark and puts Du Plessis to sleep. At best, he reacts poorly when absorbing damage.
Giles vs. Du Plessis Pick
Du Plessis is fun, but flawed, and he seems to have a high variance type of style which makes for some exciting fights. He's a former pro kickboxer with a ton of submission wins on his record, which is an encouraging sign, but his defensive grappling needs work, and I have reservations about his durability.
Since Du Plessis always forces the action, I think there's a good chance of violence in this spot. I projected the fight to end inside the distance 60%, and I would bet under 2.5 Rounds to -115.
The Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
