Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Odds, Preview & Prediction: 2 Bets for Boxing vs MMA (Saturday, October 28)

Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Odds

Well, we're doing it again. This Saturday afternoon in Saudi Arabia, we have yet another MMA vs boxing crossover fight: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou.

Fury is the undefeated heavyweight boxing champion, and he takes on Ngannou, the lineal UFC heavyweight champion, in Saturday's pay-per-view headliner (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV).

Since the massive Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather fight in 2017 kicked off this trend, we've seen plenty of examples of this type of bout.

Without fail, they've all ended more or less the same way: with the boxing match being won by the boxer.

For once (twice, with apologies to James Toney), it would be great to see the boxer come over to MMA, but the poor pay structure in the cage makes that a pipe dream.

However, you could certainly tell yourself a story that this time will be different with Ngannou vs Fury.

Unlike past fights that featured MMA fighters known for their overall striking (McGregor), their wrestling (Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley), their jiu-jitsu (Nate Diaz) or their muay Thai skills (Anderson Silva), Ngannou's best attribute has always been his hands. Unlike most of that list, he's also not much past his prime, if at all.

Let's dig in below to see if Ngannou has a chance against "The Gypsy King" or if we'll simply relearn the lesson that these are different sports.

Fury vs Ngannou Fight Analysis

As alluded to in the intro, of all the MMA fighters to make the jump to high-profile boxing matches, Francis Ngannou might be the best suited.

He originally began his combat sports journey with the dream of becoming a heavyweight boxer, and all of his initial training was in the sweet science.

I broke down in the past how hard the transition is between the sports, but some of the hurdles are removed – or at least lowered – for "The Predator."

While former UFC champ Woodley was known for his punching power in the octagon, his wrestling and grappling ability played a large part in how he set up his shots. His opponents had to be wary of takedown attempts, which forced them to carry their hands lower, and stand more square.

Outside of the fight with Ciryl Gane, Ngannou has landed just one takedown in 14 UFC fights – and the grappling was initiated by his opponent.

That means Francis has had to find a way to land his power shots even with opponents focused solely (or at least primarily) on them. Obviously, Fury won't be worried about leg kicks or takedowns either, but at least Ngannou had dealt with that in the past.

Next is his stance.  That was something I focused on heavily with Woodley as his relatively square feet and upper body are sub-optimal for boxing.

However, Ngannou fights out of a much more bladed, boxing-style stance. His lead foot is at roughly a 45-degree angle to Mioccic, with his lead hand and shoulder well in front of his power side:

While it's still not exactly a "boxing stance," he at least won't have to worry about falling back on old habits as a wrestler or muay Thai stylist.

The final point toward the "this time is different" angle is the weight class. The nature of heavyweight fights means that a "puncher's chance" is a more reasonable argument since power plays a bigger factor than with lighter fighters.

Ngannou famously has (or at least, had) the hardest punch ever measured:

Ngannou also made major strides in the latter half of his UFC career in remaining patient and not overextending himself for big shots. That's important both for his cardio in a 10-round boxing fight, and against a more technical opponent who won't be easy to catch with wild bombs.

Now let's get to the bad.

While Ngannou is primarily a boxer, there are some tendencies on his tape that will make this a huge challenge for him. He likes to maintain the range at distance with kicks, primarily to the leg, before coming into range with punches. While it would be hilarious, it's not exactly a technique he can rely on in a boxing match.

He's also never fought against an opponent with a longer reach, where the massive Fury has him by two inches. That doesn't sound like a lot, but when paired with the stance (being more bladed gives fighters a longer reach on their lead hand) and Ngannou's reliance on kicks at range, it will compound to look like a lot more in the ring,

Finally, the obvious difference here is in opponent quality. While McGregor took on a 40-year-old Floyd Mayweather and the other crossover fights featured YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul, Fury is the undefeated heavyweight champion of the world.

While arguably past his true prime, he's still just 35 – which is about 28 in heavyweight years.

Fury's style also doesn't help Ngannou here. Fury is an adept defensive fighter who fights behind a long jab, and he uses excellent head movement to avoid power shots from his opponents.

His Philly shell-esque style does a great job mitigating big right hands with shoulder rolls – note the deflection around eight seconds in the above video – and even when punches land, they generally don't land clean.

Fury vs Ngannou Pick

Tyson Fury comes into this bout as a deserving massive favorite, at -1400 odds on DraftKings as of this writing.

Frankly, it's hard to argue with that line. Boxing and MMA are different sports for a reason, and outside of getting sucked into a brawl or being completely unprepared, it's hard to see how Fury drops this one.

Still, laying -1400 isn't fun, and the juice probably isn't worth the squeeze for a roughly 7% return. I'm also slightly concerned with how serious Fury is taking this bout, given he's already booked his next title defense.

When perusing the prop market, some alternate angles stood out as better ways to handle this one, and I'll be taking a sprinkle at each of them.

The first is Fury by decision at +600. While the likeliest outcome involves Fury finding a way to finish this one, I don't think a knockout should be such a massive chunk of his winning condition.

Ngannou has taken shots from some of the best strikers in UFC history, and he has managed to never even get knocked down, much less finished.

The length of this one (10 rounds) is a bit concerning, but that's only five minutes longer (with four more minutes of rest sprinkled in) than a UFC title fight.

If you want to really have some fun, there are also a couple of ways to bet on Ngannou scoring a knockdown here. Fury has been hurt at times, specifically by Deontay Wilder, who dropped him three times across their three bouts. Two of those knockdowns came via big right hands over the top of his lead shoulder defense, which is a similar strike Ngannou has landed in the UFC.

Like Wilder, Ngannou should have a general athleticism and power edge here, and he's fairly quick for a man his size – at least when he's had a pair of working ACLs.

Add to that the fact that Fury may be looking past Ngannou a bit here, and an early wake-up call isn't the craziest outcome.

Fury to get knocked down at any point is +500 odds, which is a reasonable "Prop Squad" style bet. However, I'm going to take it a bit further and bet on Fury to be knocked down and rally to win the fight, at +650 odds.

I expect him to rally back quickly if Ngannou puts him on notice.

(Both of those betting options are found under the "knockdowns" tab on DraftKings.)

The Bets: Tyson Fury Wins by Decision (+600 at DraftKings) | Fury To Be Knocked Down and Win (+650 at DraftKings)