Betting odds: Max Holloway (c) vs. Brian Ortega
- Max Holloway -110
- Brian Ortega -120
- Time: Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: UFC Pay-Per-View
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There will be plenty of action going down in the octagon this Saturday night at UFC 231 from the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada.
Max 'Blessed' Holloway will take on Brian 'T-City' Ortega to determine the undisputed UFC Featherweight Champion in what is shaping up to be one of the best fights of the year. Both 145-pound fighters have a 69-inch reach, but Holloway (5-foot-11) holds a three-inch height advantage over Ortega (5-foot-8).
Saturday night will be the first time Holloway has entered the octagon since December 2, 2017. "Blessed" has since signed up for three fights, but pulled out against Frankie Edgar (leg injury), Khabib Nurmagomedov (short-notice weight cut) and Ortega himself (concussion like symptoms).
Also working against Holloway is the dreaded Drake curse.
🎶 Max said they only blessed when they attached to you 🎶@BlessedMMA x @Drake#UFC231pic.twitter.com/5zXMP2RfrW
— UFC (@ufc) November 30, 2018
T-City was last seen in March, when he became the first man to finish Edgar thanks to a wicked upper-cut that would make Francis Ngannou proud.
Holloway's last loss was to Conor McGregor on August 17, 2013, while Ortega is undefeated in 15 professional fights. This includes one no-contest after Ortega tested positive for drostanolone.
Let’s break down some of the matchup’s biggest questions and attempt to find some value with the odds.
How Can Brian Ortega Win?
Any conversation about Ortega begins with his world-class jiu-jitsu. The Rener Gracie black belt has arguably the most wicked submission game in the entire UFC regardless of weight class. Ortega has accordingly strangled seven of his 15 career opponents, regularly demonstrating the type of high-level jiu-jitsu ability to end a fight at any moment.
Ortega's slick submissions are capable of turning out the lights for any featherweight in the world, while his aforementioned knockout against Edgar demonstrated there's plenty of power in T-City's standup game as well.
Seven men have walked into the octagon with Ortega since he joined the UFC in 2014, and none of them have managed to take the fight to the judge's scorecards.
- Mike De La Torre: Submission (rear-naked choke)
- Thiago Tavares: TKO (punches)
- Diego Brandão: Submission (triangle choke)
- Clay Guida: KO (knee)
- Renato Moicano: Submission (guillotine choke)
- Cub Swanson: Submission (flying guillotine choke)
- Frankie Edgar: KO (punch)
However, not all of Ortega's victories would've necessarily ended up that way if he hadn't managed to finish the fight inside the distance. Ortega finished Moicano, Guida, Brandão and Tavares in the third and final round, but he hasn't exactly made a habit of controlling fights. T-City has only out-landed one of his seven opponents inside the octagon before closing the show.
Holloway might just have the division's best chin, as he joins Nurmagomedov as the only men to seemingly not be rocked by McGregor inside the octagon. Nobody has submitted Holloway since Dustin Poirier all the way back in 2012.
Ortega's ground game is certainly on another level than anything Holloway has seen, but it's uncertain if he'll be able to take the fight to the ground. Most of Ortega's submissions have come from snatching his opponent's neck or pouncing on them after knocking them to the ground, as he hasn't completed a takedown in six consecutive fights.
How Can Max Holloway Win?
Holloway might not have the same flash-finish ability as Ortega, but that doesn't mean the 27-year old Hawaiian isn't more than capable of finishing this battle inside the distance.
Overall, Holloway has emerged victorious via submission or (T)KO in 10 of his 18 career fights in the UFC, and he's finished three consecutive wars in the octagon over former champions in Jose Aldo (twice) and Anthony Pettis.
Holloway instead relies on relentless pressure and pace to overwhelm his opponents. This style has earned him positive comparisons to Nick and Nate Diaz over the years. His advanced striking statistics on both offense and defense are far superior to Ortega (via UFC.com, Holloway is denoted in red, and Ortega in blue).
Holloway's 82.6% takedown defense rate is the fifth-highest mark among all active featherweights. His ability to keep the fight both at a distance and on the feet will go a long way towards helping the champion pick apart the challenger for five rounds.
Speaking of five rounds, we haven't seen either competitor enter the championship rounds during their respective UFC careers. Still, the cardio advantage seems to point towards Holloway, as he's consistently upped his pace and volume round-by-round in each of his last five fights that have entered the third round.
The biggest question facing Holloway is his own health. His aforementioned issues in making it to each of his last three fight have varied, but the most-concerning aspect is the lack of clarity surrounding his most-recent pullout.
Specifically, the doctors don't seem to know why Holloway was suffering from concussion-like symptoms prior to his last fight. Holloway had this to say about his health back in July (via USA Today).
The update is I’ve seen multiple doctors and experts but they haven’t been able to give us any answers about what happened … But there’s one thing they know right now, and that’s that I’m OK. I’m OK. I’m going to fight again, but that’s all we know. As of right now I’m good.
Both Ortega and Holloway are estimated to walk around at ~185 pounds. Holloway has joked about eventually finishing his career as a heavyweight, but it wouldn't be surprising to see either fighter move up to lightweight sooner rather than later.
Current and Past Odds
The fight is almost a pick'em at the moment, although Ortega is the slight favorite.
Ortega was favored over Cub Swanson when they met, while Holloway was a +140 underdog. Meanwhile, Holloway opened up as a -285 favorite over Edgar for their fight, before Ortega ultimately stepped in as a +138 underdog.
Blessed was a -150 favorite over Ortega (+120) when these warriors were set to battle at UFC 226.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the odds shift towards Holloway's favor after Friday's weigh-ins once his aforementioned health issues are alleviated.
Prediction
Holloway's health concerns make this a tough fight to heavily invest in. Still, perhaps that's why we're seeing some value behind the champion against his talented, but still green, challenger.
Ultimately, I think Holloway's cardio, pressure and advantage on the feet will be too much for Ortega to overcome. Holloway's championship experience and high-volume makes him the heavy favorite to win if the fight goes to the judge's scorecards, so Ortega bettors should consider a wager on him to win inside the distance to better their odds.
The Pick: Holloway -110
