UFC 235 betting odds: Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Anthony 'Lionheart' Smith
- Jon Jones -900
- Anthony Smith +550
- Time: Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: Pay-per-view
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The UFC will travel to the fight capital of the world this weekend for what has the early makings of the best card of the year. All the action will take place from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev.
Undisputed UFC light heavyweight champion and the potential pound-for-pound best fighter in the world Jon Jones will enter the octagon Saturday night less than three months after he defeated Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 232.
Meanwhile, challenger Anthony Smith has finished three consecutive fights since moving up from 185 pounds back in June of 2018.
Surprise: the sport's potential GOAT boasts massive physical, striking and takedown advantages over the challenger.
We're going to break down this fight a bit different than usual due to the astronomical odds. Jones' overwhelming technical and physical advantages make this matchup about as big of a mismatch as you could possibly imagine.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in a fist fight. Perhaps Smith's aggressive nature will enable him to catch JBJ off guard and pull off one of the greatest upsets in UFC history.
Smith has a chance of winning because technically every competitor has a "chance" of winning a one-on-one fight. Formulating an actual path to success against the sport's potential GOAT is where things get tricky, as nobody actually knows how to defeat Jones because it's never happened before.
Predicting JBJ to win this fight isn't a difficult task, but figuring out how Jones might win this fight is where we have the chance to make some money. Let's break down Jones' chances of defeating Smith by decision as well as by TKO/KO or submission.
Jones by Decision (+650)
A quick look at JBJ's history inside the octagon reveals that he's been just as likely to finish opponents with strikes as he is to win by decision.
- Jones has fought 19 times inside the Octagon.
- 7 (37%) of those fights were finished by TKO or KO (including Jones' "loss" against Matt Hamill and no contest in his rematch against Daniel Cormier).
- 5 (26%) of those fights were finished by way of submission.
- 7 (37%) of those fights reached the judge's scorecards and ended in a decision.
Still, Jones has looked like a different beast during his last two title fights, finishing both Daniel Cormier and Gustafsson by strikes in round three. JBJ wasn't able to finish either opponent when they originally fought back in 2013 and 2015, respectively.
The problem with picking Bones to win by decision is that win-or-lose, Smith has made a habit of not letting his fights reach the judge's scorecards. Overall, only two of Smith's 10 fights (20%) in the UFC have been decided by decision, while his remaining eight fights resulted in six victories and two defeats before the final bell.
Nobody has ever questioned Smith's toughness, and neither competitor has made a habit of gassing out during their respective fighting careers. Still, we've never seen Anthony Smith go a full five rounds; JBJ hasn't done so since April of 2016.
I'll pass on Jones by decision, as I believe the matchup's largest advantage in the champion's favor will result in this fight ending in less than 25 minutes.
Jones by Submission (+225) or by TKO/KO (-130)
Smith is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is far from a novice on the ground. Still, he's struggled to consistently keep the fight standing throughout his career when facing an opponent with a well-versed arsenal of takedowns.
It's safe to say JBJ's high-level wrestling ability is in a different stratosphere than Smith's last competitor Volkan Oezdemir, a career kickboxer who managed to pass Smith's guard twice after securing his first career takedown.
Jones has managed to take down every last one of his UFC opponents that he's attempted to drag to the mat. It's safe to say he's handled superior wrestling talents than Smith.
Jon Jones has completed a takedown against every opponent he's attempted to take to the ground during his UFC career pic.twitter.com/9AkLyRvZgS
— Action Combat (@ActionFights) March 1, 2019
Bones didn't let Gustafsson get up after taking him down in the third round at UFC 232, as he slowly gained dominant position before unleashing a vicious barrage of unanswered punches.
Jones has an eight-inch reach advantage that could also certainly help him dominate this fight on the feet. The champion is the more accurate striker and has better defense.
The key difference in Jones' recent ground-game strategy has been an apparent disregard for submission attempts: Jones hasn't even attempted a submission since April, 2014 during his unanimous decision victory over Glover Teixeira.
Overall, a modest 26% of Jones' fights have been finished by submission, while Smith hasn't tapped out inside the octagon since his UFC debut in June of 2013.
Perhaps the champion takes offense to the idea that Smith might have superior jiu-jitsu and we see Jones make a point of submitting the challenger. Still, it's tough to take a leap of faith like that when we've seen Bones simply choose to overwhelm his opponents with strikes on the ground in recent history.
Prediction
Jones was also a massive favorite in past fights against …
- Ovince Saint Preux (-750)
- Glover Teixeira (-500)
- Alexander Gustafsson 1 (-800)
- Chael Sonnen (-825)
- Vitor Belfort (-750)
- Rashad Evans (-530).
The sport's potential pound-for-pound GOAT was a -300 and -250 favorite during his last two fights against Gustafsson and Cormier, respectively.
There really hasn't ever been much betting value on Jones, but the man simply continues to win and make his bettors profitable. I don't see this Saturday night being any different, and I'll be betting Jones to finish this one with strikes before the final bell.
The pick: Jones by TKO/KO -130
