Dana White can celebrate another weekend of being the biggest live sport on TV this Saturday with an absolutely stacked MMA card.
UFC 250 begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ on Saturday with a seven-fight preliminary card. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, featuring five bouts, including the women’s Featherweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer.
But our combat crew is betting two other fights on tonight's main slate. See where they are finding some betting value below.
UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds, boosted from -600!
Malik Smith: Magny vs. Martin
Editor, The Action Network
Neil Magny enters this matchup as a -136 favorite (fair odds of about 54%), but as Zerillo noted in his piece here, crowdsourced projections have him winning this fight about 81% of the time.
Magny has the physical advantages in this matchup with Anthony Rocco Martin (a 3-inch height advantage and a 7-inch reach advantage) and he also lands more strikes per minute (3.93 compared to 2.70) at a more accurate clip (46% to 36%). Magny's takedown percentage is also notable for the division, as he ranks seventh among active welterweights (47.4%). Martin's take down as a welterweight is even better, though (71.4%), and should negate that part of Magny's game if he's on point.
This fight is one of two that are most likely to go to a the distance at DraftKings (-225). Magny has seen nine of his 15 wins in the UFC come by the judges' score cards and I think, given his advantages, you can get some value by betting him to win by taking him to win by decision tonight.
Sean Zerillo: Wineland vs. O'Malley
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Undefeated 25-year-old Bantamweight Sean O'Malley is both a current and future star in this sport, and his return to the octagon at UFC 248 was a welcome sight:
Sean O'Malley finishes Jose Quinonez pic.twitter.com/K0agfpScKJ
— CFU FU (@CFUVT) June 3, 2020
He's incredibly technical and lands at a high volume (6.87 significant strikes per 15 minutes) with incredible accuracy (57%) and defense (66%) on the other end of exchanges.
O'Malley is the better athlete, with a four-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage over Wineland, in addition to being ten years younger and significantly faster.
This bout should mostly stay on the feet, which is what makes O'Malley by KO/TKO so appealing.
The crowd projects O'Malley as a 91% favorite, with 70% of those predictions calling for a win by KO/TKO, which suggests that the fair odds for his knockout prop should be -175 (implied 63.7%).
Even at his current odds of -500 (implied 83.3%), multiplied by that 70% knockout probability, you get fair odds of -139 (58.1%), meaning that O'Malley by KO, TKO, or DQ is actionable at -121. I would also use O'Malley in parlay pieces tonight.
Zerillo: Nunes vs. Spencer
If you want a more in-depth analysis of the main event, check out my full fight preview.
In short, Felicia Spencer showed a lot of toughness and determination in her fight with Cris Cyborg, continuing to come forward and press the classier fighter for three rounds while taking a beating.
While Nunes has significantly more power than Cyborg and represents a more stringent test in a five-round fight, I have to go against the grain and look at Nunes by decision (+300).
We saw a higher percentage of stoppages last Saturday in the smaller 25-foot cage than we would typically see in the 30-foot octagon — and Nunes will undoubtedly be able to land some big shots during the fight.
But if Spencer can survive the first round, there���s a strong chance that this fight does go to the scorecards – as Nunes has shown a tendency to gas out after winning the early rounds before grappling with her opponent until the clock runs out.
While I’m unwilling to lay significant juice (-200) on over 1.5 rounds, Nunes by decision (+300) is the most appealing prop bet on the board. I'll also be using Nunes as a parlay piece.
UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds, boosted from -600!
