With 12 fights on Saturday night's UFC 250 card, there's a good opportunity to find some value bets. But among the fights offering value, one stands out in particular: Alex Caceres vs. Chase Hooper.
Hooper's metrics are based upon a one-fight UFC sample when he dominated Daniel Teymur in December as a -175 favorite.
"The Dream" opened as a -125 favorite at Draftkings against Caceres and has been bet up to as high as -190.
Hooper is the younger man by more than 10 years, with slight advantages in both height and reach.
Tale of the Tape
| Alex Caceres | Chase Hooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-12-0 (1 NC) | 9-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:10 | 9:47 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 6/20/88 | 9/13/99 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.98 | 5.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.86 | 1.89 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 31% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 16% |
| TD Def | 58% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 3.8 |
Here's an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including how I'm planning to bet matchup before the value is gone.
GET FIVE 50% PROFIT BOOSTS FOR UFC 250!
Caceres vs. Hooper Betting Pick
Occasionally, the UFC hype machine goes full force behind a young prospect, to capitalize on the limited shelf life that these sublime athletes have as potential superstars.
And during their ascent, UFC matchmakers often feed those hyped prospects ideal opponents; to help them gain confidence and name recognition while padding their career records against veteran gatekeepers.
We saw that type of situation play out last week with Mackenzie Dern (-550) winning with ease by a first-round submission against Hannah Cifers, who lost the very moment that she was taken to the ground.
We could see a similar situation play out on Saturday, with Hooper facing Caceres:
"The Dream" has some glaring deficiencies in his game — namely below-average wrestling and weak striking defense — but Caceres isn't built to take advantage of those vulnerabilities.
The UFC veteran has been taken to the mat with ease by superior grapplers — including his submission loss to Kron Gracie in February 2019 — and with one TKO win in 21 UFC fights, he also doesn't have the type of knockout power to make Hooper hesitant about coming forward.
The smaller 25-foot cage should also help Hooper close the distance against an opponent who usually likes to be on his back foot. Seven of Hooper's nine career wins have been by knockout or submission, and Caceres could be in significant trouble on his back.
This fight is -220 (implied 68.7%) to finish inside the distance, but Caceres by decision (after picking Hooper apart on the feet) seems like the underdog's only path to victory.
A crowdsourced projection of more than 1,500 picks for this fight picked Hooper to win 85% of the time (implied odds of -568), however.
At current odds of -190 (implied 65.3%), that is a significant betting edge on the favorite, who should probably be closer to a -300 (implied 75%) favorite than -200 (implied 66.7%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
Back the wunderkind up to -200 on the moneyline to continue the flawless start to his MMA career, in an ideal stylistic matchup. And in the prop market, look to bet Hooper to finish the fight inside of the distance.
