Cody Garbrandt has been on an unfortunate downward slope that saw him go from a champion to losing three fights in a row by stoppage over the past three years.
Garbrandt returns to the octagon after more than a year of being inactive due to surgery and sickness. His opponent, fellow 135-pounder Raphael Assuncao, is also look to snap a losing streak at UFC 250.
"No Love's" odds sit at -148 at DraftKings as of this writing, with Assuncao listed as a +120 underdog to come out on top on Saturday.
UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds, boosted from -600!
Tale of the Tape
| Raphael Assuncao | Cody Garbrant | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-7 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:41 | 8:50 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/19/82 | 7/7/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.32 | 3.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.35 | 3.53 |
| SS Defense | 68% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.54 | 0.94 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 33% |
| TD Def | 80% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Assuncao vs. Garbrandt Betting Pick
Garbrandt is an incredibly technical striker and sound defensive wrestler who has never been taken down in his UFC career. He has significant power and speed advantage over Assuncao, who has looked to be in decline over his past two fights, and I'm uncertain what the Brazilian has left at the age of 37.
The only question for Garbrandt is his chin – and whether he has healed after his substantial break from fighting. Seemingly, the public expects Garbrandt to get stopped with Assucano listed at +400 by KO or TKO, and +1000 by decision.
He only has four career knockouts, however, and one since 2012. If Garbrandt goes to sleep from Assuncao's power, he might as well retire.
A bet on Garbrandt is a bet on a fighter who hasn't won in four years, but the matchup and the price both look right.
Garbrandt by KO/TKO (+125) is the favorite under winning method, but I prefer Garbrandt by decision (+250) — Assuncao's only career loss by stoppage came in 2011.
Over 2.5 rounds (-125) is worth considering, but I'm just going to back Garbrandt on the moneyline and watch the fireworks:
