Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda Odds
| Burns odds | -265 [BET NOW] |
| Pineda odds | +210 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+100/-134) [BET NOW] |
| Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Time | Saturday at 10 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Up-and-coming UFC talent Herbert Burns will take part in his third fight of 2020 when he faces Daniel Pineda at UFC 252. Pineda, who hasn't fought in the UFC since 2014, was 1-4 in his last five bouts in the octagon. Burns' stock is quickly rising after two exciting finishes since joining the UFC.
Here's an in-depth preview of Saturday's matchup below, including how I'm planning to bet the fight before the value is gone. You can also check out my analysis of all 11 bouts here.
Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Pineda | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 26-13 (2 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:11 | 8:19 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/2/88 | 8/6/85 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.60 | 2.99 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.67 | 2.51 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.59 | 1.46 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 25% |
| TD Def | 100% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 6.9 | 2.0 |
Burns vs. Pineda Betting Pick
The crowd projections show that there is no betting value on either side, or on the total for this fight.
Burns is currently riding the UFC hype train — aided in part by the success of his brother, Gilbert Burns — after scoring three first-round submission wins under the promotion’s banner. Dating back to his time on the regional scene, Burns has seven wins via first-round submission.
Once he faces a fighter who has high-level wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense, he could be in trouble, however.
Daniel Pineda went 3-4 on his previous run in the UFC, and I found it odd that the promotion recently signed him again, following a 2019 PED suspension. He is a potent finisher, however, recording all 26 of his career wins by stoppage (8 KO, 18 submission) and that doesn’t include his two October 2019 wins (TKO, Guillotine) that were overturned into no-contests following the suspension.
Pineda is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he puts himself into vulnerable positions and I still give the grappling edge to Burns. Pineda’s best path to victory is to keep the fight standing.
Burns by submission (-150) is the most likely outcome, but I cannot recommend placing a -EV wager on that prop relative to the crowd projection (-132), and I struggled to find an actionable betting angle for this fight.
It’s also worth noting that Burns missed weight for the fight and fighters who failed to make weight are on a 3-9 run during the pandemic, including a 3-3 record for favorites.
The Pick: No Bet
