Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier Odds & Picks
| Miocic odds | -104 [BET NOW] |
| Cormier odds | -115 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-148/+110) [BET NOW] |
| Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Time | Saturday at 11:45 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
Odds as of Friday at 2 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
After splitting their first two meetings, this trilogy fight will determine the Greatest of All-Time in the UFC Heavyweight Division – and the crowd appears to have the fight correct right around a pick’em, with a small lean towards Cormier just like in the betting markets.
History is not kind to the favorite in this matchup – Cormier won the first bout as a +140 underdog, before Stipe won the rematch at +130.
After surveying the odds board, there was only one bet that offered value – Stipe by KO/TKO (+185) compared to a crowd projection at +164, but the edge is slight.
Stipe Miocic Odds History
| Date & Opponent | Opening & Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 8/17/19, Daniel Cormier | +130, +105 | W |
| 7/8/18, Daniel Cormier | -170, -227 | L |
| 1/20/18, Francis Ngannou | +130, +135 | W |
| 5/13/17, Junior Dos Santos | -205, -185 | W |
| 9/10/16, Alistair Overeem | -170, -146 | W |
Stipe made a crucial adjustment in the fourth round of the second encounter – doling out punishment to Cormier’s body (14-of-16 strikes landed) which eventually put the gassed out champion down for good.
It’s easy to remember, because it’s the last thing we saw – but let’s not forget that Cormier had essentially dominated the head to head matchup until that point. In the first fight, he flattened Miocic in the first round, catching him with a perfect overhand right hand inside of the clinch.
The dominance continued into the second fight, with Cormier carrying a wicked pace while out-landing Stipe 37-7 in round one, and nearly gaining a late Round 1 stoppage after deploying his wrestling.
He out-landed Stipe 56-46 in round 2, and 57-34 in Round 3 – and was significantly more efficient (68% to 53% accuracy) before eventually tiring and succumbing to the body blows.
Daniel Cormier Odds History
| Date & Opponent | Opening & Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 8/17/19, Stipe Miocic | -150, -161 | L |
| 11/3/18, Derrick Lewis | -800, -500 | W |
| 7/7/18, Stipe Miocic | +140, +132 | W |
| 1/20/18, Alex Garcia | -380, -390 | W |
| 4/8/17, Anthony Johnson | -140, -105 | W |
Cormier has mostly worked on his conditioning for the trilogy fight – he is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, and if he’s willing and able to go back to his wrestling, it could present major problems for Miocic.
However, that game plan certainly factored into his tiring out in their last bout – but if the fight goes the distance it’s hard to imagine Cormier not winning more rounds.
“I love fighting at the APEX,” Cormier said on his ESPN show. “That old leg is gonna be right in front of me to grab … If you want to see a 25-minute stand-up fight, that’s not what you’re getting.”
He led on all three scorecards prior to the fourth-round knockout last August, but if Stipe comes out with a different game plan and focuses on those body shots, Cormier’s only option might be to grapple.
Miocic is certainly the bigger man (five inches taller, eight inches longer) as "DC” is a natural Light-Heavyweight, but Cormier has looked like the more physical fighter.
Tale of the Tape
| Stipe Miocic | Daniel Cormier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-3-0 | 22-2-0 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:39 | 11:53 |
| Height | 6'4" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 240 lbs. | 235 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/19/82 | 3/20/79 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.95 | 4.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 2.75 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.20 | 1.95 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 44% |
| TD Def | 73% | 77% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.5 |
He has continually pressured Stipe and forced his way to the clinch, leading to both men maintaining a ridiculously high pace. I’m curious to see whether Stipe goes back to that adjustment immediately, or whether he saves it for the middle and later rounds against a tiring opponent.
Given his comments, I certainly expect Cormier to go back to his wrestling early, as he did in the second fight. If he cannot use it to gain an early stoppage, and looks to be fading again by the fourth round, Stipe could be well worth a wager as a live underdog.
Miocic vs. Cormier Betting Pick
There is a reason that these two are competing for the title of Heavyweight GOAT – and it’s difficult to find betting value no matter where you land on the fight.
Although retirement fights typically do not go well for the man with one foot out the door, DC – like George St. Pierre – is a special case. And it’s hard not to see him making further adjustments for his final trip to the octagon.
The longer the fight goes, the more that Stipe’s chances improve of winning inside of the distance. DC got out of shape during quarantine, but he is clearly the more skilled fighter and has proven that for the majority of the time that these two have squared off.
I have to back the better fighter here in a pick’em, but I will keep the play small given the low degree of confidence, and lack of projected value. You can play Cormier to -115.
The Bet: Daniel Cormier (-115, 0.5 units)
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