UFC 254 Odds, Model Projections: Betting Picks and Analysis For All 12 Fights (Saturday, Oct. 24)

The most anticipated UFC fight of the year will take place early on Saturday evening in the United States, as interim champion Justin Gaethje (22-2) looks to become the undisputed lightweight champion, and the first man to defeat Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0) in MMA.

UFC 254 begins with a six-bout undercard starting at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN+, which continues on ESPN 2 at 12 PM, and is followed by six fights on the main card at 2 p.m. ET.

In addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

Below, you can find my crowdsourced fair odds projections for each of Saturday’s 12 bouts, including forecasts for those fights to finish inside of the distance, moneylines, or for either fighter to win by decision, knockout, or Submission; with analysis and picks for my Saturday bets below.

Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

UFC 254 Model Projections

UFC 254 Odds & Picks

Preliminary Card

• ESPN+/ESPN2
• 10:30 a.m. ET

Lightweight fight: Joel Alvarez vs. Alexander Yakovlev

Crowdsourced Projections:  Alvarez (64%)

The first fight on Saturday's card is the only bout where I could not find value in one of the moneyline, total, or prop markets.

If you have been following this process for a little while, we cashed Alvarez as a +260 underdog back in June:

The line has moved towards Yakovlev after he opened as a +205 underdog.

Alvarez has recorded 15 of his 17 career wins by submission, but he has yet to attempt a takedown in three UFC fights – which speaks to his lack of confidence in his wrestling skills

Yakovlev's volume is so low (1.79 significant strikes landed per minute, 47% accuracy), that it's going to be difficult to keep up with Alvarez in terms of pace (+3.03 landed, 36% accuracy), particularly when Alvarez has the longer reach (+3 inches).

The Russian's best path to victory is to test the Spaniard's  takedown defense (1.56 attempts per 15 minutes, 33% accuracy), sprawl and brawl, and avoid getting tapped if he does get the fight to the ground.

There are a few betting angles to note.

Yakovlev has significantly more experience inside of the octagon (3-5) against the higher-level competition, including a bout with Kamaru Usman back in 2016.

He is also 10 years older than Alvarez, but when there is that significant of an age gap in the UFC, the younger fighter actually wins 65% of the time.

Lastly, Alvarez missed weight on Friday, and fighters who miss weight have a 48% win rate overall (4-13 since the restart in June)

The Bet

• Pass

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Women's Flyweight fight: Liana Jojua vs. Miranda Maverick

Crowdsourced Projections:  Maverick (74%)

There isn't enough projected value for me to make a play personally on the underdog, Jojua, in this spot, but you are getting a fair price on a 25-year-old coming off of her first UFC win, against a 23-year-old making their UFC debut.

UFC debutants carry just a 43% win rate against octagon veterans, but Maverick is an implied 80% favorite based on listed odds.

Jojua has recorded five of her eight career wins by armbar, and she'll likely need to find another one from her back against Miranda, the far more technical and powerful striker, and wrestler.

Jojua's output (1.39 significant strikes landed per minute) will likely be dwarfed yet again (-1.84 significant strike margin) on the feet, and Maverick's best path to victory is to keep the fight standing.

These women both have high-level submission grappling (combined 12 of 16 wins) and while Miranda was never finished in her Invicta career, Jojua has been stopped twice.

My projections show the fight going to the judges 55% of the time, however, implied odds of -122.

You could take the +120 (implied 45.5%) on the distance prop, or look to bet Over 2.5 rounds to -105 (implied 51.2%).

Fights in this division go to a decision more than 60% of the time.

The Bet

• Over 2.5 rounds (-102, 0.5 units)

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Light Heavyweight fight: Da-Un Jung vs. Sam Alvey 

Crowdsourced Projections: Jung (83%)

Jung is my favorite parlay piece on Saturday's card. Even at odds of -350, I see more than a 5% edge on Jung's moneyline, which I would personally set at -500.

Jung has the size advantage (two inches taller, three inches of reach), and his volume is twice as high as Alvey's (6.59 to 3.11 significant strikes landed per minute) through Sam's efficiency (+5% defense; superior -0.1 to -0.45 strike margin) closes the gap.

Alvey has taken steady money after opening at +400, but it's difficult to find a win condition for Sam beyond counterpunch knockout, on the heels of four consecutive UFC losses, including two stoppages.

He has just two knockout wins in the past five years and one at Light Heavyweight from 2018 where Marcin Prachnio literally walked into two punches:

The other knockout came back in 2016 against Kevin Casey, who never competed in the UFC or won a professional MMA bout again. Alvey, who previously competed at Middleweight, hasn't had the same pop in this division.

Jung has shown himself to be hittable (47% striking defense), and Alvey was much more aggressive than usual (57 significant strikes) in his most recent fight against Ryan Spann, a split decision loss where he came on late.

But Jung is also known for his durability, and Alvey needs to be mindful of the Korean's power:

I projected Jung to win inside of the distance 62.2% of the time, implied odds of -163. You can play the Korean to close the show to -134 (implied 57.2%), a five percent edge.

I wouldn't be surprised with a decision victory, however, which is why I'm keen to include Jung in a moneyline parlay.

The Bets

• Parlay: Jung/Murphy (-110, 0.5u)
• Jung to win Inside the Distance (-105, 0.5u)

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Welterweight fight: Alex Oliveira vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Crowdsourced Projections: Rakhmonov (59%)

Undefeated Khazakstani Shavkat Rakhmonov is the second debutant on this card facing a UFC veteran (43% win rate), but Oliveira is the fourth scheduled UFC opponent, and a short-notice late replacement (38% win rate on less than 40 days) against "Nomad"

Rakhmonov was previously scheduled against three tough fighters – Bartosz Fabinki in March, Ramazan Emeev in July, and Eliezu Zaleski for Saturday – so the UFC clearly thinks highly of him.

And over the past week, the odds have moved dramatically towards Rakhmonov, turning him from an underdog into a favorite (via Best Fight Odds):

Rakhmonov has finished all 12 of his professional wins before the third round. He has shown improved confidence in his distance striking of late, but he'll likely be more comfortable grounding Oliveira (61% takedown defense) and trying to find a finish with his wicked ground and pound or creative submission game.

Oliveira is extremely powerful, but he doesn't fight at a particularly quick pace (2.89 strikes landed per minute), leaving him susceptible to the judges if Rakhmonov can secure multiple takedowns.

Most importantly, he typically runs out of gas after five minutes, and Rakhmonov not only has the better cardio but also possesses the killer instinct to put away fading opponents:

Rakhmonov has everything that you want to see from a debutant, and he is coming into this fight off of an extended training camp due to all of the cancellations – so the 26-year-old has likely made further improvements to his game.

Oliveira missed weight on Friday. To reiterate my point from earlier, fighters who missed weight have a 48% win rate overall (4-13 since the restart in June), and unless he clips Rakhmonov early I doubt he'll have much left in the final two rounds.

Given the increased likelihood that a finish occurs, as a result, I'm not interested in Rakhmonov's prop to win by decision, or the fight to go the distance – both of which show potential value.

I would play the Khazak's moneyline to -117 (implied 54%) at a 5% edge. I would also look to add more to Rakhmonov live after Round 1.

The Bets

• Rakhmonov's Moneyline (-110, 1u)
• Rakhmonov live after Round 1

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Catchweight fight: Nathaniel Wood vs. Casey Kenney

Crowdsourced Projections:  Kenney (62%)

If you want a different betting perspective and some additional analysis on this fight, check out the preview from my colleague Reed Wallach. 

From my perspective, the moneyline aligns with my projections, but I do show slight value on the fight to go to a decision (78%, implied odds of -355) relative to listed odds (-200, implied 66.7%), with Kenney by decision (+110) or Wood by decision (+300) each representing fair value if you prefer a side.

Kenney destroyed Heili Alateng for three rounds (30-25 on one scorecard) on Oct. 3, racking up a career-best 109 significant strikes while turning his opponent's torso black and blue from body kicks.

But he's also an adept wrestler and exciting scrambler, which makes this matchup with Wood so interesting, stylistically.

Wood also set a personal best, with 131 significant strikes in his recent win over John Castaneda. He has 14 finishes in 17 career wins, including three in the UFC, but Kenney has never been stopped, and he's also more of a point fighter, both stylistically and statistically.

As Reed points in the article linked above, the data indicates that Wood has some statistical advantages, in addition to his finishing ability.

No matter the winner,  I like this fight to go the full 15 minutes at a higher frequency than the odds suggest. I would risk 1 unit on the fight to go the distance (or to go to decision), up to -212; a 10% edge relative to the projection.

The Bet

• Fight Goes the Distance (-180, Risk 1u)

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Heavyweight fight: Stefan Struve vs. Tai Tuivasa

Crowdsourced Projections:  Tuivasa (53%)

Per the projection, this is the most likely fight on the undercard, and the second most-likely bout on the night to finish inside the distance, but it also looks like exactly the type of sloppy Heavyweight matchup that cruises over the total of 1.5 rounds.

Tuivasa opened as an underdog but has started to turn to a favorite as we approach fight time, despite losing each of his past three UFC bouts, and reportedly being released by the promotion.

"Bam Bam" will be nine inches shorter, with a nine-inch reach disparity against his 6'11" opponent Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve.

Struve has attempted 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes in the UFC, recording 18 of 29 career wins by tap, and though his offensive wrestling is pretty poor (0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, 50% accuracy) Tuivasa's defensive wrestling (42%) is no better.

Tuivasa is the superior striker (+0.97 strikes per minute margin vs. Struve, with a +0.55 differential to -0.87 for Struve), with way more power, and the Dutchman doesn't use his length particularly well from range.

Struve will look to get the fight to the clinch, and then the ground, and test Tuivasa's defensive grappling.

Struve retired following his most recent win in February 2019, but returned last December and lost by knockout to Ben Rothwell. When a fighter, particularly one who has been knocked out eight times in 41 professional fights, already has one foot into retirement, they move to the top of my fade list.

I show slight projected moneyline value on Tuivasa, and I set his odds to win inside the distance at 47%, implied odds of +113.

If the fight stays standing for any lengthy period of time, his power will eventually win out.

You can play the Tuivasa inside the distance prop down to +138 (implied 42%), a five percent edge relative to the projection, or take his KO/TKO prop to +150.

While you could bet the fight to end inside the distance at -250 (implied 71.4%) relative to my projection at 79%, all of that stoppage value is coming from the Tuivasa side.

The Bet

• Tuivasa to win Inside the Distance (+150, 0.5u)

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Main Card 

• ESPN PPV
• 2 p.m. ET

Light Heavyweight fight: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

Crowdsourced Projections:  Ankalaev (74%)

This rematch has already been rescheduled three times since April and is at risk yet again due to Cutelaba's cornerman testing positive for COVID on Friday.

My thoughts on the bout have not changed, and I'll keep them brief in case we see its fourth cancelation.

Ankalaev has been the superior fighter for 99% of his time inside the octagon, save for a conspiracy-level highly-questionable late submission loss to Paul Craig in his debut, as a substantial favorite – and I believe that the Dagestani-born fighter is destined for stardom:

I projected Ankalaev’s odds to win inside the distance around 63%, implied odds of -170 and I would make a small play up to -138 (implied 58%) at a five percent edge.

There's no denying that the first encounter between these two ended in an extremely controversial manner. Cutelaba was playing rope a dope so to speak, but he was also getting clipped repeatedly.

The Bet

• Ankalaev to win Inside the Distance (-135, 0.5u)

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Women's Flyweight fight: Lauren Murphy vs. Liliya Shakirova

Crowdsourced Projections:  Murphy (76%)

Now that her odds have dipped to -200 in some spots, there is certainly projected moneyline value on Murphy, taking on a late-replacement debutant in Sakirova, who appears to have some real long-term upside.

To reiterate some stats from earlier, late-replacements have a 38% win rate in the UFC, and debutants have just a 43% win rate against UFC veterans, so this is an extremely difficult spot.

Murphy is nearly a decade older than her opponent, however, leading to a 35% win expectancy, historically, based on age alone.

But she has also fought against a much higher level of competition and has continued to make improvements in her game when most fighters are building game plans around any remaining strengths.

Murphy is very physical at 125, and I'm not sure if Shakirov, who has shown a diverse set of techniques and skills on the regional scene, will have the strength to overpower this caliber of fighter.

I set her odds to win by decision at 64.6% (implied -183), and you can bet it to -148 (implied 59.6%) at a five percent edge.

I'll also include her in a parlay with Da Un Jung from the undercard.

The Bets

• Murphy to win by Decision (-115, 0.5u)
• Parlay: Jung/Murphy (-110, 0.5u)

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Middleweight fight: Jacob Malkoun vs. Phillip Hawes

Crowdsourced Projections: Hawes (67%)

Hawes is the primary sparring partner for Jon Jones. Makoun is the primary sparring partner for Robert Whittaker. Both are making their official UFC debuts on a PPV main card.

The line has consistently moved towards Makoun after opening around +260 and now appears to be in line with my projected odds.

While I wouldn't ever really consider betting the under 1.5 rounds in a middleweight fight, this fight does show some value to finish inside the distance, projected at 78% relative to listed odds at -240 (implied 70.6%).

However, I don't have enough video or information on either of these two fighters to make an appropriate read, and since nothing else stands out I'm just going to skip this one and reset before an excellent close to the card.

The Bet

• Pass

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Heavyweight fight: Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris

Crowdsourced Projections: Volkov (70%)

Volkov is my favorite value play of the night for reasons I will discuss below, but I also think he's the best live target of the night. If you're unwilling to lay close to -200 on a favorite, you might be able to get a significantly better live price on him after Round 1.

The Russian was rag dolled in his last matchup with Curtis Blaydes, taken down a Heavyweight-record 14 times in five rounds. But Volkov was extremely tough through that pressure, consistently finding ways to get back to his feet before winning the final 10 minutes of the five round fight.

Unfortunately he'll only have 15 minutes against Walt Harris, which narrows his path to victory – but he won't have to deal with any takedowns.

Harris typically gasses out after five minutes of fury, and at age 37 his cardio is not going to suddenly improve without a drastic change in style. It's difficult to imagine Harris having success with anything besides his current strategy, which has led to a 100% finish rate.

But Volkov is extremely durable – knocked out just twice in 39 pro fights – and if he can survive the early going against Harris, the Russian should completely take over.

Volkov keeps up a ridiculously efficient pace for a heavyweight (4.65 strikes landed per minute, 58% accuracy, +2.12 margin) and he's good enough defensively (54%) to avoid getting caught.

He'll also have a size advantage against Harris (three inches of reach, two inches taller) and owns significantly more fighting experience.

This fight isn't so dissimilar from Harris' last matchup with Alistair Overeem, though I think the Reem has more power, and a lesser chin than Volkov.

As a result, I see this fight ending in three ways: (1) Harris Round 1 Finish; (2) Volkov Round 2 or 3 Finish; (3) Volkov by decision.

I projected Volkov by decision at +134 (implied 42.7%), and you can find it in the market over +200 (implied 33.3%). Play Volkov's decision prop to +165 (implied 37.7%) at a five percent edge.

You can play Volkov's moneyline to -186, and look to bet him live after Round 1.

The Bets

• Volkov's Moneyline (-180, Risk 1u)
• Volkov to win by Decision (+225, 0.5u)
• Volkov live after Round 1

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Middleweight fight: Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier

Crowdsourced Projections: Whittaker (56%)

I had initially expected to be on the Cannonier side of this fight, but he appears to be a very popular pick this week and I ended up showing value on the former Middleweight champion Whittaker, now that you can find him at plus money.

The 36-year-old Cannonier, who once competed at heavyweight, has been extremely impressive in his three wins since making his own middleweight debut, knocking out David Branch, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermannson in succession.

Following a knockout loss, and losing his title to Israel Adesanya, Whittaker returned with a five-round, unanimous 48-47 decision over Darren Till that was close throughout.

Historically, Whittaker should have the pace edge against Cannonier, landing an extra 0.79 strikes per minute, with a superior margin (1.08 to 0.9), but Cannonier is far more efficient (+11% accuracy, +5% defense) and will have the reach advantage (+4 inches) in addition to the power edge.

Whittaker should have an edge with his grappling, but he has mostly used it defensively in the octagon (0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes) as wrestling empties his gas tank, but perhaps he could go it once or twice in a three-round fight.

That being said, while Cannonier has 51% takedown defense for his career, getting back up is one of the more improved areas of his game. See the Hermannson fight, above.

Whittaker wasn't particularly impressive against Till, but he does have the technical kickboxing skills to beat Cannonier.

That being said, Jared has maintained his heavyweight power while cutting off nearly 50 pounds, and perhaps he is just a force to be reckoned with in this division.

So long as you can get plus money, take a small shot on Bubby Knuckles to setup his rematch with Adesanya:

The Bet

• Whittaker's Moneyline (+100, 0.5u)

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Lightweight fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje

Crowdsourced Projections: Nurmagomedov (64%)

First, we have to talk about the weight cut. Not only did Khabib look surprised that he made weight for Saturday's main event, but if you actually look at the scale, it's pretty clear that he was overweight.

Now, by itself, this wouldn't be overly concerning – Khabib always struggles to get down to 155 a bit – but in the context of Khabib's 2020, that reaction could shed some light onto his training regimen and overall mindset heading into this fight.

His father and longtime trainer Abdulmanap contracted and passed away from COVID-19 in July. That's obviously horrible, but it certainly had to affect Khabib's training – not only in terms of quality after losing his coach and mentor but also in terms of the amount of time he was able to spend in the gym.

We have never seen a relieved Khabib before. Only the stone-cold smasher that plows through and dominates every opponent, seemingly with ease:

Now, I'm assuming that Khabib is fully prepared for this fight. I wouldn't expect anything less. But if he is even 99% the fighter that he used to be — if he has taken any sort of half step back rather than making improvements relative to his competition, as he has done in the past — the window opens just enough for his first loss to catch air.

Regardless of the timing, Justin Gaethje is the most dangerous opponent that Khabib has ever faced. And he has coach Trevor Wittman in his corner – one of the sharpest minds in the sport.

Gaethje is the most actively violent fighter in the sport, averaging a record 7.74 significant strikes landed per minute and forcing his opponents to brawl, sending back 8.37. He is a decorated wrestler, but he has only used that wrestling defensively (80% takedown defense), which is obviously one of the key components to this fight.

Gaethje has an advantage on the feet against Khabib, whose striking stats (4.11 landed per minute, 1.65 absorbed) are skewed by his plethora of dominant control time. Khabib has averaged 4.11 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, on 47% accuracy, but he does his best work up against the cage with regards to dragging his opponents down. His grip strength is one of the strongest tools in the sport.

Gaethje needs to refuse to respect Khabib's power, as he did with Tony Ferguson, stand in the center of the octagon, and make Khabib shoot for legs and try to chain wrestle him backward.

Gaethje will look to spend a ton of time circling and setting up calf kicks and counter hooks, as he did against Tony Ferguson to capture the interim title:

Gaethje went off as a +175 underdog in that fight after taking the fight on late notice, and while the overall striking was close (143 to 136 in significant strikes) Gaethje's efficiency (72% to 45% accuracy) was off the charts. He owns the highest significant strike accuracy (59.2%) in lightweight history – besting the competition by more than 5%.

On a full camp, Gaethje's stamina will be even better for this bout, and I expect to see him constantly on his bike. The more time that Gaethje spends in the middle of the octagon Saturday, the more that his chances of winning this bout will continue to increase.

But Khabib will inevitably gain control along the fence, and likely drag Gaethje to the mat. The question is whether Gaethje is able to get back up and if Khabib is able to go to his game plan with success, repeatedly.

Given how tough both of these fighters are, I'm not going to bet Under 4.5 rounds or an inside the distance prop, regardless of projection value.

I don't think that Gaethje needs to rely on the knockout to win. I probably thought that going in against Ferguson, but he managed his gas tank wonderfully and his power and volume could win the fight on the scorecards against an ironclad opponent like Khabib.

As a result, while Gaethje's knockout (+375) or inside the distance (+375) props technically offer value too, I would stick to the underdog moneyline at +225 (implied 30.7%) or better – a 5% edge relative to the crowd projection.

The Bet

•  Gaethje's Moneyline (+260, 1u)

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Zerillo’s UFC 254 Bets

Moneylines

• Shavakt Rakhmonov (-110, 1 unit)
• Alexander Volkov (-180, Risk 1u)
• Robert Whittaker (+100, 0.5u)
• Justin Gaethje (+260, 1u)
• Parlay: Jung/Murphy (-110, 0.5u)

Props and Totals

• Jojua/Maverick, Over 2.5 Round (-102, 0.5u)
• Jung to win Inside the Distance (-105, 0.5u)
• Wood/Kenney, Fight Goes the Distance (-180, Risk 1u)
• Tuivasa to win Inside the Distance (+150, 0.5u)
• Ankalaev to win Inside the Distance (-135, 0.5u)
• Murphy to win by Decision (-115, 0.5u)
• Volkov to win by Decision (+225, 0.5u)

Live Betting Notes

• Rakhmonov live after Round 1
• Volkov live after Round 1