Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo Odds
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The No. 2-ranked woman in the Flyweight division, Katlyn Chookagian, looks to get back into the win column against No. 4-ranked Cynthia Calvillo Saturday at UFC 255.
Chookagian is in here fourth fight this year and third since the pandemic shut down the sport, but she's just 1-2 over that span. On the flip side, Calvillo hasn't lost since 2017. Her only blemish over that span was a majority draw against Marina Rodriguez last year.
A win here for Chookagian or Calvillo would go a long way to securing a shot at the Valentina Shevchenko and the women's Flyweight title belt.
Below I break preview the matchup and odds for the UFC 255 bout. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Chookagian | Calvillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 | 9-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:43 | 13:22 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 64" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/88 | 7/13/87 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.18 | 4.21 |
| SS Accuracy | 35% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.25 | 3.37 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.3 | 1.97 |
| TD Acc | 15% | 46% |
| TD Def | 48% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.3 |
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo Betting Pick
Calvillo (5-foot-4, 64-reach) proved her mettle over five rounds in her return to Flyweight against Jessica Eye (5-foot-6, 66-inch reach), who owns a win over and is likely a tougher overall test than Chookagian.
The cut to 125 helped to preserve and manage Calvillo's gas tank better than in her previous fights, and she's going to be a difficult out in this division moving forward, particularly in 15-minute contests.
"Blonde Fighter" (5-foot-9, 68-reach) will have an even more pronounced size advantage against Calvillo, but her takedown defense (48%), will be tested early and often, and Calvillo (46% takedown accuracy, 1.97 landed per 15 minutes) should be able to win this matchup with control time unless Chookagian can consistently scramble back to her feet.
I show value on this fight to go the distance (projected 87%) but I would only play the distance prop to win a half unit up to -334 (implied 77%), and I have a small play on Chookagian by decision at +275 (implied 26.6%), a narrower edge relative to my projection at +232 (implied 30%).
Picks: Katlyn Chookagian wins by Decision (+300) | Calvillo/Chookagian goes the Distance (-323)
