It's time! Saturday's UFC 255 card is stacked with great fights throughout, including title fights in both the women's and men's Flyweight divisions. The action kicks off with seven prelim bouts beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 with the five-fight main card switching over to ESPN PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With 12 action-packed bouts on the slate, there is plenty of value to be found on the card. So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights on Saturday’s card that present betting value in three different ways.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Sean Zerillo: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
I was against Royval in his bout against Kai Kara-France (and paid for it), but Moreno presents another significant jump in competition, and the Mexican contender is too well-rounded to find a true edge for Royval in this fight.
Royval's advantage is in the chaos and unpredictably that he creates – spinning attacks, flying knees, submission attempts from every angle in his rubber guard. He's uncomfortable to watch, and I can't imagine how overwhelmed some of his opponents must feel.
While this scrap should be highly entertaining, Royval has gassed out in the past when he has been unable to secure an early finish. He is 1-4 on the scorecards and has never been finished himself, including in a 25-minute battle with Casey Kenney in LFA.
Similarly, Moreno has never been finished, and despite the opportunities that might present themselves for both men, I think this fight goes to the judges at a decent rate (projected 64%), which obviously plays to Moreno's hand.
Though the moneyline projection looks spot-on for this fight, I bet Moreno to win by decision at +140 (implied 41.7%) relative to my projection at -111 (implied 52.6%). You can play that to +110.
I also made a smaller play on the fight to go the distance at -120 (implied 54.5%), which I would play to -144 (implied 59%).
Check out my full undercard and main card preview for more ways to bet on this matchup.
The Bet: Brandon Moreno wins by Decision (+140, 1u) | Moreno / Royval goes the Distance (-120, 0.5u)
Reed Wallach: Mike Perry vs. Tim Means
Contributor at The Action Network
Tim Means is set to fight in his 44th professional scrap, and will be facing an interesting and very likely spiraling opponent in Mike Perry.
This line has dropped precipitously as Perry continues displaying erratic behavior. “Platinum” tweeted early Friday that he was not going to be able to make weight ahead of the morning’s weigh in, and questioned his career in the process. When he got to the scales, he missed it by 4.5 pounds!
The fight will go on, but Perry may be swimming in deep waters against veteran Means. Perry has taken on bigger men and came out victorious, but it doesn’t hurt “The Dirty Bird” that he has a 4-inch height and reach advantage on Perry.
Perry has been all over the place of late, but what he is also riding is a misplaced reputation. Perry is known for being a violent striker, but has not landed a knockout since 2017. Perry was able to score an ugly decision victory over Mickey Gall in July as a -335 favorite.
In his corner for that fight was just his girlfriend, who has zero MMA experience. Means’ has fought in nearly five times as many fights as Gall, and will not let Perry control a grind-it-out fight like the July co-main.
While who is in Perry’s corner is not the end all be all, it does show where his head is at. Up against a veteran like Means, it will be exploited. Means is a smart fighter who defends strikes at a 61% clip, per UFC Stats.
As this fight potentially drags into the third round, Perry will be outmanned and out coached. His corner for this fight will be his girlfriend once again, and his friend Matthew, according to Perry on media day this week.
At any plus number I’m going to back Means to win as a professional and put the hurt on Perry.
The Pick: Tim Means ML (+105)
