Makhmud Muradov vs. Andrew Sanchez Odds
Makhmud Muradov is stepping in for Andre Muniz, who dropped off the card in December because of injury, to take on Andrew Sanchez in a middleweight bout on Saturday night's UFC 257 card.
It's been a long road back to the Octagon for Muradov, who has seen his last four fights canceled. We last saw him in action in December 2019 when he scored a third-round knockout against Trevor Smith. He's 2-0 since joining the UFC and now meets the Ultimate Fighter Season 23 champion.
It's been an up-and-down career for Sanchez since that victory. He's fought to a 4-3 record, most recently defeating Wellington Turman via knockout back in August.
Where's the betting value in this fight? I'll break down the matchup and betting odds below, and you can find my full breakdown of Saturday's card here.
Tale of the Tape
| Muradov | Sanchez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-6 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:35 | 13:01 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/8/90 | 4/8/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.97 | 4.57 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.57 | 4.92 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.51 | 2.16 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 32% |
| TD Def | 100% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Muradov vs. Sanchez Betting Pick
Muradov – who fights under Floyd Mayweather's banner with The Money Team, will hope to extend his 13-fight winning streak against Sanchez – who flattened Wellington Turman with a first-round knockout back in August:
Andrew Sanchez vence a Wellington Turman por KO al 4:14, Round 1 #MMa#MMAMexico#UFCVegas6
pic.twitter.com/xfUhAiCynf— SoloMMA (@Solo_MMA) August 8, 2020
Sanchez is known for gassing later in fights and showed much more aggression in that outing. Still, he'll likely need to deploy his wrestling against Muradov (2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, 32% accuracy), who has denied all three takedown attempts he has faced with the promotion.
Muradov is active enough (4.97 strikes landed per minute) on the feet to wear Sanchez down, and I think his defensive wrestling checks out to the point where I'm not particularly worried about him being ragdolled or dominated on the mat on first entry.
If he survives early, I believe that Muradov will begin to look like a massive favorite in this spot. I see slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -124, listed -110) and for Muradov to win inside the distance (projected +122, listed +165), but Sanchez has shown durability until late in fights (both UFC knockout losses in Round 3), and I'm not interested in that sweat.
I prefer Muradov on the moneyline up to -163 (implied 62%), a three percent edge compared to my projected odds (65%).
He seems to have a substantially higher ceiling as a fighter, and I'm expecting to see improvements after a one-year layoff.
The Pick: Makhmud Muradov (-150)
