Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips Odds
I have gone back and forth regarding picking a side on this fight, but thankfully the projections have let me off the hook. Kyler Phillips opened as a +165 underdog but has come down roughly 5% as of writing and I wouldn't consider a bet on the underdog unless his moneyline gets back to +145 or better.
Below I preview Phillips' matchup with Song Yadong and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Song | Phillips | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4-1 (1 NC) | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:13 | 7:10 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/97 | 6/12/95 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.32 | 6.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.57 | 2.05 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.73 | 2.79 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 66% |
| TD Def | 61% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Phillips represents a step down in competition for Song, who is coming off of a controversial win over Marlon Vera (65% of fans scored for Vera) and a controversial draw against Cody Stamann (53% of fans scored the bout for Stamann and 46% scored it a draw).
He is a sound technical boxer, which creates good optics for the judges, regardless of whether he is actually landing more strikes, and Phillips has shown some defensive lapses on the feet.
However, Phillips has the grappling upside in this fight and offers a path to victory through his wrestling (2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, 66% accuracy) and top control.
Furthermore, while both men are good athletes, I'd give the cardio edge to Phillips and see him as the more likely man to win a third round, particularly due to his grinding style.
Song vs. Phillips Pick
If he can keep the striking numbers and optics relatively close on the feet with his spinning attacks while mixing in a few takedowns, that could be enough to put Phillips over the top with the judges, despite their past deference to Song.
Either way, I don't see a betting edge on either side of this fight. But while both men do have finishing upside, this is still a division that offers the lowest stoppage rate (41.3%) on the men's side.
I projected this bout to go to the judges 62% of the time and would bet the distance prop up to -145, at just about a 3% edge.
The Pick: Song/Phillips, Fight Goes the Distance (-130, 0.5u)
