Tyron Woodley vs. Vicente Luque Odds
Former UFC Welterweight champion and No. 7-ranked contender, Tyron Woodley, will look to snap his three-fight skid against No. 10-ranked Vicente Luque in the co-main event of Saturday's UFC 260 card.
Woodley's last win in the octagon came in 2018, but he has since lost to the current champ (Kamaru Usman) and the top two contenders in the division (Colby Covington and Gibert Burns). Luque won back-to-back fights in 2020 and is 8-1 in his past nine fights going back to 2017.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for what should be an exciting co-main event. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Woodley | Luque | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6-1 | 19-7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:56 | 8:52 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/7/82 | 11/27/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.33 | 5.72 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.72 | 5.82 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 50% |
| TD Def | 87% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.8 |
It's hard to say if Woodley is completely washed, even if it looked that way in each of his past three fights, where he lost every minute of every round against Usman, Burns, and Covington.
At age 38, he no longer looks as ripped as he did during his championship run, and the power he once possessed in his killer right hand might be severely diminished from his prime.
To the UFC's credit, they are giving Woodley the opportunity to test that power against a fighter who will give him a war. Luque (5.72 strikes landed, and 5.82 strikes absorbed per minute) is one of the most entertaining, action-packed fighters in the promotion.
He'll look to pressure Woodley, and since he's hittable we will see how much power the former champion still has left.
It seems unlikely that Luque secures a takedown since Woodley was notoriously difficult to grapple with (87% takedown defense) prior to his last three fights, but a club and sub after continued pressure is very possible.
Woodley's best path to victory might be through his wrestling (1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes, 40% accuracy), but he's rarely gone to his D-1 base for offensive purposes and seems to lack self-awareness regarding his recent defeats.
Woodley vs. Luque Pick
Taking Luque by decision (+150) or playing the fight to end inside the distance (+115) both align with my projections — but there's not enough value for me to place a wager.
Luque's style should give Woodley his best chance to win in a while, and I'd lean either to the inside the distance prop or the under given the expected pace.
Don't forget, you can check out there rest of my picks projections and see the bets I have made in the Action app.
The Pick: No Bet
