Jared Gooden vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov Odds
| Gooden odds | +198 |
| Nurmagomedov odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-164 / +128) |
| Venue | UFC APEX, Las Vegas |
| Time | Approx. 9 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN |
Our best undercard bet on Saturday's card lies with a member Nurmagomedov family. Not Khabib, his cousin Abubakar Nurmagomedov. He is fighting Jared Gooden this weekend after losing his UFC debut as a -400 favorite.
Both fighters have only been in the UFC for one fight — both losses. So this is a big fight in both of their careers. However, this could be the perfect time to get a discount on a future UFC star.
Let's break down the matchup between both fighters to see where we can find betting value.
Tale of the Tape
| Gooden | Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-5 | 15-3-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 2:50 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/5/93 | 11/13/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.67 | 1.41 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 11.20 | 0.71 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 81% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.00 | 5.29 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 100% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Nurmagomedov vs. Gooden Pick
Nurmagomedov shockingly lost his first fight in the UFC against David Zawada, but I think it was bizarre matchmaking for a debut. Zawada is a rock-solid 170-pound competitor who could've easily won a split-decision to contender Ramazan Emeev.
In just one fight, we learned that Nurmagomedov is focused on landing takedowns, mirroring his cousin Khabib at the beginning of his career. While the ground game is fierce, Abubakar struggles in the striking department.
The stats are a bit too inflated at this point to put a lot of stock into them. However, they do show strategic game plans between the two fighters.
Nurmagomedov lands 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. He didn't look totally lost in the striking department either — landing 1.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbing just .71 per minute per UFC Stats.
On the other hand, Gooden was in an all-out war with Alan Jouban in his first fight. Gooden defended the takedowns against Jouban resulting in a 100% takedown defense. That number seems legit as Gooden hasn't been submitted in his 22 fight professional career.
Gooden also absorbed 11.20 significant strikes per minute while landing 6.67, which is a stark disparity. He did land a takedown against Jouban, but he will surely be looking to stay on the feet in this fight.
Nurmagomedov was very close to mounting Zawada and he had the arm isolated. This could have resulted in a head and arm choke from mount to win the fight. Instead, Zawada recovered guard and caught Nurmagomedov in a triangle choke.
Gooden not being submitted in his career does give me hesitation on Nurmagomedov to win via submission at +550. However, I think that value is too much to pass up. I would project this prop to be closer to +400 in a fight like this.
You can get Nurmagomedov by submission or points -115 (53.47% implied) at FanDuel if you're looking for a safer bet. Nurmagomedov has not knocked out an opponent since 2016 and the UFC strikers are at a different level than fighters he has previously faced.
I would bet Nurmagomedov by submission or points down to -140 (58.33% implied) and his submission prop down to +450. The Nurmagomedov family may just take over the UFC before long.
The Pick: Nurmagomedov by Submission or Points -115 | Nurmagomedov by submission +550
