Katlyn Chookagian vs. Viviane Araujo Odds
No. 7 Flyweight contender Viviane Araujo has a chance to map her path to a title shot with a win over No. 2 contender Katlyn Chookagian on Saturday.
Araujo has won five of her six UFC bouts, including a decision over Roxanne Modafferi in January. Chookagian has an 8-4 record in the UFC but has traded wins and losses in each of her past four fights.
Can the Brazilian progress one step closer to a title shot, or will "Blonde Fighter" retain her status near the top of the Flyweight rankings?
Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Chookagian | Araujo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-4 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:50 | 14:10 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1988 | 11/21/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.22 | 4.97 |
| SS Accuracy | 34% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.23 | 4.84 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.27 | 2.33 |
| TD Acc | 15% | 64% |
| TD Def | 51% | 94% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Chookagian has the height advantage in this fight (5-inch difference). Still, Araujo is right there with her in terms of reach and has arguably been the more efficient striker (+0.13 to -0.01 strike differential, +14% accuracy -3% defense) to date.
Any time you see the combined striking accuracy and defense number exceed 100% (108% for Araujo, 97% for Chookagian), that's a pretty telling figure.
Moreover, Araujo is the better grappler (2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, 64% accuracy), and Chookagian has struggled against fighters who can take her to the mat (51% takedown defense) with consistency.
Chookagian has the cardio edge, but Araujo has worked to close that gap in her game, and I think she's capable of sustaining for a full 15 minutes; 25 minutes, however, remains a significant question mark.
If Chookagian can keep this fight standing, she likely pulls away on the scorecards with pure volume – but Araujo won't be completely out of her depth, either.
But if Araujo can secure takedowns in separate rounds while mixing in her striking, then this is her fight to lose.
Chookagian vs. Araujo Pick
I projected Araujo as a 51% favorite in this fight, and I would bet her moneyline down to +106, at a 2.5% edge.
I show slight value on the distance prop (projected -400, listed -375), but not enough to make a play.
However, I also show value on Araujo's decision prop (projected +164), and I would bet that down to +186.
The Pick: Viviane Araujo (+115, 0.5 units) | Araujo wins by Decision (+200, 0.25u)
