We've got a big fight weekend in Houston, Texas with UFC 262 brining the noise to the Toyota Center Saturday night. Tonight's card will feature 12 enticing fights, including a battle for the UFC Lightweight title between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler in the main event.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights that stand out among the rest. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Billy Ward: Jacare Souza vs. Andre Muniz
Contributor at The Action Network
While “legend” seems like a bit of a strong word, well-regarded 41 year old veteran Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza takes on up-and-comer Andre Muniz to close out the UFC 262 prelims. Jacare is riding a three fight losing streak, While 31 year old Muniz has had his hand raised after his six previous outings (two in the UFC.)
If you read my last best bet (shout out to us going 3-0 by the way,) this will be eerily reminiscent of my thoughts on the Cerrone vs. Morono fight. Jacare is 41, coming off three losses, with the last one being a weird KO at the hands of a seated Kevin Holland. Fighters' chins rarely, if ever, get better with age and mileage, and seeing a clean KO from a seated/lying opponent is a huge red-flag.
Both guys have well-below-average workrates in terms of striking, and a moderate amount of power, with both of them finishing roughly 20% of their pro wins by knockout. With that said, given the age-related durability and hand speed concerns, I don’t see this ending well for Souza if it does.
Jacare has historically been dominant is with his grappling — 44% of his UFC wins have been subs, compared to the UFC average that hasn’t broken 20% since 2010.) Unfortunately for him, Muniz is also an exceptional Jiu-Jitsu player, as the third degree black belt has 13 submission wins himself, and has never been submitted in an MMA fight.
While not as juicy as the +160 we could get on Morono last week, Muniz can be had at +110 at BetMGM in what looks to be a very similar situation. I’ll take the younger, rising fighter over the aged name, especially when their styles so closely mirror each other. Muniz takes this one.
The Pick: Andre Muniz ML (+110)
Sean Zerillo: Jacare Souza vs. Andre Muniz
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
I'm going in the opposite direction of my colleague on this fight.
Muniz has a significant reach advantage (+6 inches) in this matchup, but he doesn’t make the most of his length. He’s much more of a grappling specialist and could be out of his depth going against a superior wrestler and grappler in Souza.
Jacare is also the better striker and carries more power. Unless Jacare’s chin is completely shot, or unless his athleticism has fallen off the table in his forties, it’s difficult to see where Muniz has the advantage in this fight.
If the UFC was merely trying to protect Jacare from a second consecutive knockout loss, they couldn’t have handed him a better stylistic matchup. Muniz looks like a talented grappler, but he doesn’t pack much power. And Jacare is one of the best grapplers on the planet.
FanDuel has the best odds on Souza at -120 and I would bet Jacare’s moneyline up to -123, at a 2.5% edge.
The Pick: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (-120)
Erich Richter: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Contributor at The Action Network
A new lightweight king will be crowned at UFC 262.
Chandler is a particularly fast starter and came out like he was shot out of a cannon in his last fight. The opening minutes of this fight should be fascinating as Oliveira and Chandler both get after it early.
Oliveira is known for his superb ground game resulting in 19 submission wins over his 38 fight career, including five submissions in his past eight fights.
However, as fights wear on we have seen Oliveira sapped of his energy and get finished. Most notably, Oliveira tapped to strikes against Paul Felder in Round 2 — a particularly embarrassing way to lose for a UFC fighter. He was also submitted by Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Pettis when he grew especially tired.
If Oliveira is not careful, there will be a huge adrenaline dump during his first UFC title shot and in front of a live crowd.
I prefer Chandler in this fight as he should have the striking and cardio edge making it especially tough for Charles in his first five-round fight.
Chandler by submission is +1700 on FanDuel which is a ridiculous line considering Oliveira has lost via submission three times and Chandler has seven submission wins on his resume. Oliveira prefers to be on the ground, so if Chandler wants to utilize takedowns and top pressure, we could see Charles give up the back as he begins to tire. This is worth a small stab, but nothing more.
The moneyline is really an excellent value as I think Chandler should be the favorite here. I would bet this down to -110.
The Pick: Michael Chandler ML +114 (1u) and via submission +1700 (.25u)
