Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria Odds
Featherweight prospects Ryan Hall and Ilia Topuria will face each other on the prelim portion of Saturday's UFC 264 card.
Topuria is undefeated as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC, while Hall is has just one loss as a pro and rides a four fight unbeaten streak into his fifth fight under the promotion after being dormant for two years.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Hall | Topuria | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 10-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:57 | 8:49 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/22/85 | 1/21/97 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.32 | 2.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.96 | 1.87 |
| SS Defense | 75% | 68% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.31 | 4.25 |
| TD Acc | 16% | 55% |
| TD Def | 0% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 4.2 |
There seems to be a very split opinion regarding this bout, and I think the divide is between the crowd that believes Topuria, an undefeated prospect, is future championship material and those who don't recognize that potential.
Hall is nicknamed "The Wizard" for a reason. He is one of the most creative MMA fighters you will ever see, using imanari rolls or pulling guard to get his fights to the mat, where he immediately attacks legs like his hands are a pair of bear traps.
Hall is incredibly intelligent, puts himself in positions to succeed, and is a tricky opponent to figure out.
Topuria has displayed elite skills through his first two UFC fights, using his BJJ blackbelt to dominate Youssef Zalal on the mat (8:02 of control) before nuking Damon Jackson with powerful strikes to the body.
Ilia Topuria put Damon Jackson out COLD after some nasty body work 🥶 #UFCVegas16pic.twitter.com/Hj9lMaZy27
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 6, 2020
Hall vs. Topuria Pick
Despite his smaller stature (3 inches shorter, 1-inch reach discrepancy), Topuria is a more powerful man and a much better athlete than Hall.
Still, there is no duplicating Hall's style in the training room, and Topuria has been very dismissive of the TUF season 22 winner's abilities.
Perhaps Hall commits some black belt-on-black belt violence, but I think Topuria has as good a chance as anyone at being the first man to stop Hall.
Of the two Topuria camps, I am firmly on the "future championship material" side of things. "El Matador" has a unique skillset.
Still, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or any winning method props for the fight. However, I projected this fight to end inside the distance 67% of the time, and I would bet that prop up to -175 or play the under 2.5 Rounds to -130.
The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-162)
