UFC 264 Odds, Predictions & Model Projections: Betting Analysis, Picks For All 13 Fights (July 10)

The UFC will put on a 13-fight card for UFC 264 on Saturday night in Las Vegas, including the trilogy fight between top Lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.

The early preliminary card will feature four fights on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET before moving to ESPN for four free fights at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight PPV main card commences at 10 p.m. ET. on ESPN+.

If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

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UFC 264 Moneyline Projections and Picks

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 13 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 264 Prop Projections and Picks

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter win inside of the distance.

UFC 264 Picks and Analysis

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Early Prelims

• ESPN
• 6 p.m. ET

Middleweight fight: Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski

Editor's Note: The Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski fight was cancelled due to COVID protocols.

Crowdsourced Projections: Yaozong (55%)

For additional information and stats on Saturday's first bout, check out the full fight preview from Erich Richter.

Not only do I agree with Erich's assessment, but I might also be even higher on Hu in this spot than he is. Hu ticks many boxes that I like to see for a fighter returning from a significant layoff (last fought November 2018).

A former Heavyweight (weighed 232 lbs. for his UFC debut), Hu has moved all the way down to Middleweight and likely made drastic improvements over the past 2.5 years between camps at Tiger Muay Thai and the UFC Performance Institute in China.

I have generally bet against Chinese prospects, whose records are inflated from low-level regional fights, but Yu's opponent, Alen Amendovksi, is a finish-reliant 33-year-old returning from a long layoff (last fought September 2019). As a rule, I generally trust the power and durability of fighters moving down from Heavyweight and don't expect to see drastic improvements from fighters on the wrong side of 30.

Hu will work the body and throw the calf kick aggressively, and I think he'll win the majority of minutes in this fight if Amendovski can't find an early knockout.

Sometimes you have to speculate in MMA betting, but my projections back up Hu as the value side in this spot, and I like his moneyline to -110.

Furthermore, I projected his decision prop at +353, and I would bet that down to +400.

Bets: 

• Hu Yaozong (+118, 1 unit)
• Hu Yaozong wins by Decision (+450, 0.25u)

Flyweight fight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera

Crowdsourced Projections: Zhumagulov (70%)

Rivera and Zhumagulov both debuted in the UFC during the pandemic. I unsuccessfully backed Zhumagulov and successfully faded Rivera, so naturally, I'm backing the latter in this spot.

I think Zhumagulov is clearly the better fighter, but it's hard to make him such a significant favorite from a matchup standpoint. Zhalgas should have won his UFC debut (won 16 of 20 media scorecards, 78% of fan scorecards) but dropped a split decision because he has a bit of an awkward low-volume style.

My primary concern with Rivera is durability. He's been finished three times in the UFC, yet this fight is considered very likely (listed -200) to go the distance. And if that's the case, I'm expecting another close decision that will make Zhumagulov bettors sweat.

Rivera has some big athletic advantages (six inches of both height and reach), and he can probably rack up enough volume on the feet to pull an upset.

Zhalgas will search for some big overhand rights to close the show, and if he connects, he may score a rare knockout. Otherwise, I anticipate a relatively close fight and would expect Zhumagulov to grapple at some point to stifle Rivera's range attack.

Zhumagulov may control this fight entirely on the mat, but if Rivera can keep it standing, it may look like a coinflip.

You can get fair value on Rivera to win by decision (+500) which I would sprinkle.

I didn't plan on betting this fight —  the line is just too wide given the matchup — and I'm sticking with a small play on Rivera's moneyline (to +260).

Bets: 

• Jerome Rivera (+275, 0.5u)
• Jerome Rivera wins by Decision (+500, 0.25u)

Middleweight fight: Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares

Crowdsourced Projections: Tavares (61%)

This seems like a good matchup for Tavares and his sturdy takedown defense (79%) against the Dagestani wrestler in Akhmedov (2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, 49% accuracy).

The Hawaiian faced a similar challenge in his recent fight against Antonio Carlos Junior (denied 11 of 12 takedown attempts, spent 6:28 in control), and if Tavares can keep this fight standing, he should eventually pull away on volume, based upon 1) the stats; 2) Akhmedov's lack of power, and 3) Akhmedov's lack of a three-round gas tank.

Brad has shown some durability concerns in the past, but Akhmedov has mostly been a point fighter in the UFC, and he doesn't have the type of power to keep Tavares from pressing forward with volume.

Even if Akhmedov does secure takedowns, Tavares has shown a good getup game, but there's a chance that he falls behind early when Akhmedov is freshest.

There's value on this fight to go to a decision, but since Tavares likely wins the third round at a high clip — and the other two rounds should be close — I also project value on Brad's decision prop too, and I prefer that play.

Bet Tavares to win by decision (+130 or better) and search for an improved price on his live moneyline after Round 1.

Bets: 

• Brad Tavares wins by Decision (+140, 0.75u)
• Brad Tavares Live after Round 1

Women's Flyweight fight: Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye

Crowdsourced Projections: Maia (67%)

Maia put forth an admirable effort in her championship appearance against Valentina Shevchenko. She took the second round off the Flyweight champion as a +850 underdog, and Shevchenko moved under -500 in the live market after the opening 10 minutes of action.

Maia secured an early takedown in the second round and held control for 4:33, but she lost the other four rounds in the fight decisively.

Still, she showed offensive grappling chops, which could pose problems for Jessica Eye (57% takedown defense), who would prefer to keep this fight standing.

The one concern on the Maia side is her gameplan. She's never been a high-volume wrestler (0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, 50% accuracy) or completed more than one takedown in a fight.

But if she aggressively pursues takedowns, then this is her fight to lose.

Maia has a good top game but is otherwise plodding, and Eye figures to be the far more effective striker from a distance despite relatively close metrics (-0.25 to -0.19 significant strike differential).

Eye will control the center of the octagon and provide better optics to the judges, but if this fight hits the mat more than once, I'm expecting Maia to see her hand raised.

I projected Maia's decision line at -101 and would play that prop at +110 or better, but I certainly wouldn't lay -200 on her moneyline.

Bets: 

• Jennifer Maia wins by Decision (+110, 0.5u)

Preliminary Card

• ESPN
• 8 p.m. ET

Middleweight fight: Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Crowdsourced Projections: Du Plessis (54%)

Du Plessis is an action fighter. All 17 of his professional MMA bouts have ended inside the distance, including his UFC debut last October.

The South African uses his leg kicks aggressively (landed 15 of 25 in under four minutes against Markus Perez), offers good power, and has shown a strong choke submission game.

The leg kicks and the chokes pose major problems for Giles, who has been submitted twice by Guillotine in the UFC. His output is unreliable, and he doesn't have the best gas tank, but Giles does offer power, and Du Plessis is very hittable.

If he doesn't wander into the pocket with his chin up, Du Plessis should be able to destroy Giles' lead leg, drag him to the ground, and choke him out. But I have major concerns about his defensive shortcomings too, and I think it's a matter of time before a UFC fighter finds the mark and puts Du Plessis to sleep. At best, he reacts poorly when absorbing damage.

Du Plessis is fun, but flawed, and he seems to have a high variance type of style which makes for some exciting fights. He's a former pro kickboxer with a ton of submission wins on his record, which is an encouraging sign, but his defensive grappling needs work, and I have reservations about his durability.

Since Du Plessis always forces the action, I think there's a good chance of violence in this spot. I projected the fight to end inside the distance 60%, and I would bet Under 2.5 Rounds to -115.

Bets: 

• Du Plessis / Giles, Under 2.5 Rounds (-108, 0.5u)

Featherweight fight: Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria

Crowdsourced Projections: Topuria (70%)

There seems to be a very split opinion regarding this bout, and I think the divide is between the crowd that believes Topuria, an undefeated prospect, is future championship material and those who don't recognize that potential.

Hall is nicknamed "The Wizard" for a reason. He is one of the most creative MMA fighters you will ever see, using iminari rolls or pulling guard to get his fights to the mat, where he immediately attacks legs like his hands are a pair of bear traps.

Hall is incredibly intelligent, puts himself in positions to succeed, and is a tricky opponent to figure out.

Topuria has displayed elite skills through his first two UFC fights, using his BJJ blackbelt to dominate Youssef Zalal on the mat (8:02 of control) before nuking Damon Jackson with powerful strikes to the body.

Despite his smaller stature (3 inches shorter, 1-inch reach discrepancy), Topuria is a more powerful man and a much better athlete than Hall.

Still, there is no duplicating Hall's style in the training room, and Topuria has been very dismissive of the TUF season 22 winner's abilities.

Perhaps Hall commits some black belt-on-black belt violence, but I think Topuria has as good a chance as anyone at being the first man to stop Hall.

Of the two Topuria camps, I am firmly on the "future championship material" side of things. "El Matador" has a unique skillset.

Still, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or any winning method props for the fight. However, I projected this fight to end inside the distance 67% of the time, and I would bet that prop up to -175 or play the Under 2.5 Rounds to -130.

Bets: 

• Hall/Topuria, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-160, 0.5u)

Welterweight fight: Niko Price vs. Michael Pereira

Crowdsourced Projections: Pereira (63%)

Aside from the main event, this might be my favorite fight on the card, but it's also the one bout where I don't see actionable betting value in any market.

I suppose there is slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -186, listed -177) or on Pereira to win inside the distance (projected +143, listed +150). Still, there's not enough of an edge to make a play, and it's difficult to determine how this matchup might play out.

Price is a balls-to-the-wall action fighter, landing and absorbing more than 11 significant strikes per minute (-0.50 strike differential). In contrast, Pereira (+0.90 strike differential) is happy to engage in high-volume wars and pick away his opponents from a distance with wildly creative attacks.

The Brazilian's power and creativity seem to slow the pressure from his opponents, and Price does have the reach advantage (+3 inches) in this fight, so Michael could struggle to win the range game.

Pereira should have the grappling edge (1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, 70% accuracy) against Price (72% takedown defense), and I think he's both the more talented and more calculated fighter, especially of late.

If Pereira leans on his grappling, I think he finds a submission or secures a one-sided decision, but he's prone to letting his opponents hang around late into fights. Since he's generally untrustworthy, I see no reason to force a play.

Pereira's grappling and power could slow the pace of this fight to a crawl.

Bets: 

• Pass

Welterweight fight: Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Crowdsourced Projections: Griffin (61%)

Like the Maia-Eye fight, Griffin seemingly has a clear path to victory on the mat, but his ability to execute and pursue an optimal game plan is a big question mark.

Condit offers zero resistance to takedowns (39% takedown defense), and Griffin (1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, 51% accuracy) has the wrestling skills to capitalize on that weakness. Still, he doesn't always fight to that style.

His striking (+0.20 strike differential to +1.14 for Condit) is much improved, and he can keep up with Condit in terms of output if the fight stays standing. But Condit is the far more technical striker, and both men are seemingly durable.

I see value in this fight to go the distance (projected -233, listed -180) regardless of the game plan that Griffin chooses to pursue.

Furthermore, I also see value on both fighters to win by decision (projected +135 for Griffin and +265 for Condit) relative to their listed odds (+135 and +280, respectively), but not enough to make a play on either side.

I definitely prefer the distance prop given the fight IQ concerns on Griffin, and I expect both competitors to make it to the finish line.

Bets: 

• Condit/Griffin, Fight Goes the Distance (-180, 0.5u)

Check out our free UFC odds page, which automatically surfaces the best moneyline and round total odds for every fight.

Main Card

• ESPN PPV
• 10 p.m. ET

Bantamweight fight: Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho

Crowdsourced Projections: O'Malley (90%)

O'Malley was supposed to fight Louis Smolka but will now face a short notice-debutant in Moutinho, 9-4 on the regional scene, with two knockout losses and two submission losses.

O'Malley's implied odds (89.3%) align with my projection on the fight. And at that price, he's not even worth including in parlays.

Most of the props are steamed beyond reason, too. O'Malley's first-round prop (-110) is a coinflip and figures to climb higher if anything.

I projected value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -773, listed -455) and on O'Malley to win inside the distance (listed -345, projected -426), but it's not my style to lay that much juice on a fight.

I'm playing O'Malley to win in Round 2 (+300) since he could be tentative to avoid an early mistake. He also made that specific prediction in his press conference — I never read too much into those things — because even if that is his intention, it probably depends more upon his opponent's chin.

The Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) is also interesting, and I think that ends up cashing. But a one-sided fight like this isn't particularly bettable, and O'Malley may make you sweat it out into the second round.

O'Malley could absolutely flatten Moutinho with his first punch or catch him clean with a head kick. He has massive physical advantages (4-inches in height and reach), is significantly more explosive, and I'm not certain that Moutinho is UFC caliber.

O'Malley has everything to lose by taking this fight too, and even if he wins spectacularly, he may not secure a performance bonus; he's that big of a favorite where the outcome — a public execution — is almost assumed.

"Sugar" looked spectacular in his recent win over former big-time prospect Thomas Almeida, picking apart the Brazilian with footwork and an assortment of strikes for 2.5 rounds (91-25 on significant strikes) before securing a violent finish.

O'Malley has extra incentive to figure out all of Moutinho's tendencies before launching his assault. An upset of this caliber would be both astonishing and legacy-defining.

Bets: 

• Sean O'Malley wins in Round 2 (+300, 0.25u)

Women's Bantamweight fight: Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Crowdsourced Projections: Kunitskaya (54%)

Aldana was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday (139.5 pounds), coming in 3.5 pounds over the Bantamweight limit.

Fortunately, I already bet the Kunitskaya side, and I like her even more now that Aldana may be suffering from a bad weight cut.

At a distance, Aldana is the far cleaner striker, but Kunitskaya is very adept at controlling her opponents both in the clinch and on the mat, and she stays very active (500+ strike attempts in her last two fights, combined) even when she's being controlled herself (spent 8:38 in control, still won 47-7 on significant strikes and 215-35 on total strikes vs. Ketlen Vieira).

Aldana hasn't shown great ability to get up off of her back. Still, even if she doesn't take her down, Kunitskaya should be able to control her up against the cage for extended periods and win the majority of minutes. 

Kunitskaya has superior metrics (+1.6 to -0.45 in significant strike differential) despite her strange style.

Holly Holm took Aldana down five times (14 attempts) and controlled her for more than a full round (5:16) in a one-sided decision. Kunitskaya isn't nearly the same level of athlete, but I envision her having a reasonable amount of success in that realm.

I'm comfortable betting on Kunitskaya because she knows her limitations and will execute an optimal game plan. She has made noticeable improvements in her recent fights after moving her camp to American Top Team in Florida.

Aldana has seemingly peaked and is not going to get the distance striking style of fight where she excels most. Kunitskaya will turn this matchup into an absolute grind.

I projected Kunitskaya as a slight favorite, and I would bet her moneyline to -105. I also show value on her decision prop (projected +145) which I would sprinkle at +160 or better.

Bets: 

• Yana Kunitskaya (+100, 1u)
• Yana Kunitskaya wins by Decision (+160, 0.25u)

Heavyweight fight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy

Crowdsourced Projections: Tuivasa (53%)

Hardy was relatively late to the scales at Friday's weigh-ins and revealed that he had ballooned up to 340 pounds before training camp. That's a bad sign for an athlete who has struggled with his cardio — and asthma — throughout his UFC career.

Hardy famously used an inhaler between rounds of his 2019 bout against Ben Sosoli (overturned from a decision win to a no-contest) and gassed out quickly, after some early success, in his recent stoppage loss to Marcin Tybura.

Fortunately, the former NFL lineman is the much better athlete in the cage against Tai Tuivasa, an Aussie Kickboxer with more of a Butterbean physique.

Hardy has looked supremely durable until his cardio falls off of a cliff, and Tuivasa can match Hardy's ability to absorb early damage.

Leg kicks for Tuivasa should eventually pay dividends. Hardy hasn't shown an ability to deal with that weapon, and he'll be content to stand at range and to try to use his length (5-inch reach advantage, three inches taller) to win the opening round.

If Tuivasa can keep landing leg kicks, the fight should eventually swing in his favor. I'm not fully certain that he has the better cardio between these two fighters. Hardy is such a superior athlete in general, and it's difficult to know whether his asthma will act up on a specific night.

However, Tai has shown an ability to dig deep in the past, particularly against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 225, and I think he'll be the more effective man down the stretch.

Hardy will land the cleaner headshots in Round 1, while Tuivasa goes to work on the legs. He may drop the round on optics, but I would look for him to pull ahead late. I would gladly back Tuivasa at plus-money or a pick'em price after a close Round 1.

The pre-fight moneyline, totals, and props look about right to me on this fight, compared to my projections. Blindly, I like the Over 1.5 rounds, but it has moved from -175 to -200 and is in the correct range now.

Tuivasa Round 2 (+500) or Round 3 (+900) props are interesting, but the live angle is my preferred play; I think we get a sloppy, three-round decision.

Bets: 

• Tai Tuivasa Live after Round 1

Welterweight fight: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson

Crowdsourced Projections: Thompson (62%)

For additional information and stats on Saturday's co-main event, check out the full fight preview from Erich Richter. 

I mostly agree with Erich's assessment but feel the need to disclose a bias here. I am a fan of Wonderboy and Karate-style fighters (Georges St. Pierre and Lyoto Machida amongst my favorites) in general.

Wonderboy's style is fluid and fascinating, which makes this matchup with Gilbert Burns so intriguing.

Even as a former lightweight, Burns is an absolute powerhouse. And one big shot from Durinho could put Thompson to sleep. He wobbled Kamaru Usman in the first round of their title fight and is one of only two fighters to knockout Demian Maia in 39 professional bouts.

Burns is also a highly dangerous submission grappler, and Thompson hasn't spent much time on his back in recent years. In fact, Thompson hasn't faced a takedown attempt since his UFC 217 matchup with Jorge Masvidal, and he hasn't really faced any high-level grapplers with consistency.

So while Wonderboy's takedown defense (78%) is considered elite, there's a chance that that skill set is overrated based upon his matchup history. If he does get taken down by Burns,it could essentially be the end of the round or the fight.

On the feet, Thompson has all of the tools to frustrate Burns and potentially knock him out. He'll make the most of a 4-inch reach advantage, and the 30-foot-cage should provide some relief; his last fight against Geoff Neal took place in the 25-foot octagon at UFC Apex.

I would have some pause about playing Thompson's moneyline. While he's tough to hit, he does have to mind the takedown attempts and could eat an overhand if he misreads a shot. Furthermore, caught kicks could result in a takedown, so he may be more reliant on his hands instead of his varied kicking game.

I projected slight value on Thompson to win by decision (projected +149) which I would play to +160, but I have a gut feeling that this fight ends violently since both fighters have durability concerns.

Bets: 

• Stephen Thompson wins by Decision (+160, 0.5u)

Lightweight fight: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor

Crowdsourced Projections: McGregor (53%)

For additional information and stats on Saturday's main event, make sure to check out my full fight preview for Poirier-McGregor III.

Erich Richter also has you covered with additional data on UFC trilogy fights.

I think this is an over-adjustment in odds movement from one fight to the next.

McGregor closed as a -333 favorite (implied 77%) in January after opening around -175 (implied 63.6%) and taking consistent sharp and public action all the way until fight time.

McGregor opened as a -140 favorite for the third fight, but the odds have flipped in recent weeks, and Poirier now sits as about a 55% favorite, roughly a 30% upgrade in implied odds relative to his chances six months ago.

McGregor's success will always be front loaded, but he clearly won the majority of minutes in the second fight. Outside of his failure to check the leg kicks, he looked pretty sharp — and I don’t see a reason to downgrade him by 30% this time around.

His defensive grappling, in particular, is underrated. I think Conor keeps this fight wherever he wants to.

I projected McGregor as a 53% favorite for the trilogy fight, and I’m comfortable taking any plus-money price.

If you bet Dustin as a big underdog last time, I could understand you taking another shot here, but I think you’re better off waiting for a live bet.

However, if you didn’t bet Poirier around +200 the last time, I don’t see how you can justify a play at the current price. And if you bet McGregor or parlayed him at -300 last time, how are you not jumping on him at plus money?

This fight is close to a pick’em for a reason. I really don’t know who will win, and honestly, I never expected to bet on Conor. In particular, I’m not a Conor fan and have typically bet against the Irishman because that’s usually where the value lies.

But the public sentiment in this rivalry has seemingly flipped since the last fight –- perhaps some bettors who lost money on Conor are looking to make their money back by fading him -– and I’m happy to wager against the narrative recency bias and market overcorrection.

McGregor to win in under 2.5 Rounds (+265 at PointsBet) probably encapsulates most of his win condition. I think that’s probably another way to play the fight at plus money; otherwise, I don’t see any value on totals or props for this fight.

Regardless of your pre-fight position, it’s worth betting Poirier after Round 1 at plus money.

Bets: 

• Conor McGregor (+115, 1u)
• Dustin Poirier Live after Round 1

Zerillo’s UFC 264 Betting Card

Distance or Decision Props and Totals

• Hu Yaozong wins by Decision (+450, 0.25 units)
• Jerome Rivera wins by Decision (+500, 0.25u)
• Brad Tavares wins by Decision (+140, 0.75u)
• Jennifer Maia wins by Decision (+110, 0.5u)
• Condit/Griffin, Fight Goes the Distance (-180, 0.5u)
• Yana Kunitskaya wins by Decision (+160, 0.25u)
• Stephen Thompson wins by Decision (+160, 0.5u)

Inside the Distance Props

• Du Plessis / Giles, Under 2.5 Rounds (-108, 0.5u)
• Hall/Topuria, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-160, 0.5u)
• Sean O'Malley wins in Round 2 (+300, 0.25u)

Moneylines

• Hu Yaozong (+118, 1u)
• Jerome Rivera (+275, 0.5u)
• Yana Kunitskaya (+100, 1u)
• Conor McGregor (+115, 1u)

Live Betting Notes

• Brad Tavares Live after Round 1
• Tai Tuivasa Live after Round 1
• Dustin Poirier Live after Round 1

Don’t forget to follow my picks in the Action Network App.