Live from Las Vegas, UFC 266 features 13 fights and a loaded main card. The final three main card fights — Volkanovski vs. Ortega, Shevchenko vs. Murphy and Diaz vs. Lawler — are each scheduled for five rounds while the rest of the card will feature three-round fights.
Consistent with previous Pay-Per-View fights we've seen this year, this weekend's action will take place at the T-Mobile Arena, which features a larger octagon than the UFC APEX. (Sean Zerillo pointed out in great detail how this can negatively affect the frequency that fights end via knockout or submission.)
As of this writing, six of the 13 fights are expected to go to the judge's scorecards on Saturday. With that in mind, I decided to focus on the fights that are less likely to make it to the cards and analyzed two prop bets centered around fights that could end in a stoppage.
Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+140) / No (-190)
Uros "The Doctor" Medic is a sparring partner of budding UFC star, Giga Chikadze. Like his fellow Kings MMA partner, Medic has all of the credentials of a future star in the UFC. His 7-0 record and ease of victory thus far in the UFC echos that potential. He faces off against Jalin Turner whose 10-5 record also includes three losses by knockout, which is where I am predicting this fight to end up this Saturday.
FanDuel has the Medic Round 1 or 2 prop at +210 and also has Medic to win in Round 1 at +430. Both of these are likely the play here as Medic has been that dominant early. In just two fights, Medic has an unheard of 19.91 significant strikes landed per minute.
I would bet Medic Round 1 or 2 down to +155 before I take a shot at his more generous Round 1 prop.
Prop bet: Medic Round 1 or 2 (+210)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+150) / No (-200)
This is the only heavyweight fight on the main card and both men have the skill to put the other away at any point.
Blaydes has a 76.4% finish rate in 17 fights, none of which ended in a submission. In fact, he has never even attempted a submission in the UFC despite having the second-highest takedown accuracy rate among active heavyweights per UFC Stats. Rozenstruik, who has an 80% takedown defense (second-highest among active heavyweights), has also never been submitted.
I would pretty surprised to see Rozenstruik survive a long fight here. And as we saw when Blaydes fought Derrick Lewis, 'Razor" can get caught charging in. Rozenstruik boasts a 85.7% finish rate and has the power to sit him down with one strike.
I thought about betting the fight doesn't start Round 3 prop at -122 odds here, but I think there is value on betting the fight to end by knockout. PointsBet has the best odds on this prop at -157 and I would bet this line up to -170 before I bet on fight does not start Round 3.
Prop bet: Fight to end via KO/TKO (-157)
