It's been a while, but the UFC has returned to Fight Island!
UFC 267 will take place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi Saturday with a 14-fight card headlined by a Light Heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira. In the co-main event, Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen go head to head for the interim Bantamweight belt. The prelim portion of the card begins early at 10:30 a.m. ET (on ESPN+) with the main card set to start at 2 p.m. ET.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks on Saturday’s massive card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Sean Zerillo: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Lerone Murphy
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Amirkhani is always dangerous for the first half of his fights, as he looks to take down and submit his opponents with a front choke. He can also win enough minutes in the first two rounds to secure a decision with dominant positioning.
Murphy is an incredibly talented prospect, but he has shown some grappling deficiencies (taken down six of eight times by Zubaira Tukhugov, who is also appearing on this card) and could get exposed in his toughest test to date.
I projected value on the Amirkhani moneyline (to +205) in addition to his submission prop (projected +536), odds to win inside the distance (projected +420), and his odds to win in Round 1.
Murphy doesn't throw a ton of volume (2.86 strikes landed per minute, on 42% accuracy) and I don't expect him to overwhelm "Mr. Finland" with volume, even though the striking should be one-way traffic.
Amirkhani has secured takedowns in all nine of his UFC fights since scoring an eight-second knockout win in his promotion debut. He should be able to put Murphy on his back early and get the Englishman in some dangerous positions.
The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani Moneyline (+250, 0.5u) | Amirkhani wins Inside the Distance (+425, 0.1u) | Amirkhani wins by Submission (+900, 0.1u)
Erich Richter: Ricardo Ramos vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Contributor at The Action Network
This is one of the most bizarre prop bets that you can find on any market.
Tukhugov is a fighter who prefers position over submission. (Makwan Amirkhani would do well to learn this skill from Tukhugov.) However, Tukhugov’s biggest problem is not throwing punches and not attempting submissions. It is great to go after takedowns and control your opponent, but some judges will value damage over control.
This has shown in Tukhugov’s most recent fights. Four of Tukhugov’s past five fights have ended in a split decision. He lands some takedowns, but does not throw enough strikes to get a consensus feeling that he won the round.
Ramos to win by split-decision has very solid value at +1100 on DraftKings — I cap it closer to +650. Tukhugov lost two of those four split-decision fights and one of them ended up as a draw (which is a win for a fight to go to a split-decision bet).
Obviously, these bets are at massive odds so tread lightly with half-unit bets or less. Still, I see this fight as a low-volume, grappling-heavy battle with a small chance at a finish.
If you do not have an account at DraftKings, you could do worse than a bet on Ramos by decision at +300. He is likely to be the more active striker and his grappling chops aren’t too bad either.
Most sportsbooks have Ramos’ decision prop at +300 so the value is pretty much agreed upon. I'll go heavy on the method of victory here with these two props.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Split Decision (+400) | Ramos by Split or Majority Decision (+1100)
Billy Ward: Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker
Contributor at The Action Network
Hooker is a significant underdog in this one, with the line bouncing all over the place. Our UFC Odds page has this one opening with Hooker at +260, and he got as high as +500 on BetMGM, before dropping back to +450.
This is a tough fight to handicap. Makhachev has been absolutely dominant in his UFC career, ripping off a 9-1 record with five stoppages. However, the quality of his competition has left something to be desired. He has yet to record a win (or a fight) against a competitor ranked inside the UFC’s top 15, according to Tapology's rankings.
Hooker is essentially the inverse. “Hangman” is 4-2 over his last six UFC bouts, but the losses have come against Dustin Poirier (No. 2-ranked lightweight) and Michael Chandler (No. 5). Hooker isn’t quite a title challenger, but he’s performed well against all but the best of the best.
Hooker defeated Nasrat Haqparast just over a month ago, and didn’t return to his native New Zealand due to visa and travel restrictions. This could be an advantage for him, with a six-week layoff being a sweet spot in terms of rest. It’s enough time to heal and recover, but not enough time to get out of shape or relax, especially away from home. This could prove to be an advantage for the highly motivated Hooker.
At this level, I also have a hard time believing any fighter realistically has less than a 20% chance of winning (excepting perhaps extremely dominant champions who are in a different league than the rest of the division, think prime Anderson Silva or current Amanda Nunes.) There simply isn’t that much between fighters at the top of their game like this.
Hooker deserves to be an underdog against Makhachev, but not by this much. I’d bet his moneyline down to +400.
The Pick: Dan Hooker Moneyline (+450)
