The first MMA Pay-Per-View of the year will be live from Anaheim, CA on Saturday night. UFC 270 kicks off with two early prelims at 7 p.m. ET and 11 fights in total. Seven of those 11 fights are projected to end inside the distance, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Those projections offer us plenty of value for finishing and decision props on this weekend's fight card. In addition, we're going even bigger with a two-pick parlay on PrizePicks (more on that later).
Let's take a look at my two favorite props for UFC 270.
UFC Fight Night Prop Bets
Pete Rodriguez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+300) / No (-450)
Pete Rodriguez, who only has four professional fights, is a bit of an unknown. All four of his wins are by first-round knockout and he packs a serious punch.
He is a little undersized for the welterweight division at 5-foot-9, but that should be negated by his 71-inch reach. Maddalena is a Dana White Contender's Series alum. Normally I like to fade these fighters, however, Maddalena isn't as unskilled as some of the fighters we have seen come from the DWCS in the past.
I think the reputation Rodriguez has built as a knock out puncher will hold up. This is a stab for sure, but Rodriguez's tape in the IFF is impressive enough for me to sprinkle a bit on his Round 1 odds at +1100.
Prop bet: Pete Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO (+460) | Round 1 KO (+1100)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+134) / No (-172)
Deiveson "God of War" Figueiredo looked terrible making weight for the second installment of this trilogy last summer. However, he looked excellent this week, making weight with ease. More importantly, he has been training with Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler and former two-division UFC champion, Henry Cejudo.
The expectation from me is that Figueiredo comes in with a wrestling-heavy approach this weekend. Looking for top control is a great way to counteract Brandon Moreno's volume striking. These fighters know each other well, there will be adjustments from Figueiredo in this fight, but I think he wins this on the cards.
Prop bet: Deiveson Figueiredo wins by Decision (+500)
PrizePicks Parlay
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator that allows you to parlay two or more MMA props together. If both hit, you’ll get paid out 2X your initial wager. However, if only one hits, you’ll still get paid out 0.5X your initial wager.
Pick 1: Brandon Moreno Over 62.5 Significant Strikes
In the first fight between Moreno and Figueiredo, Moreno landed 132 significant strikes. In the second, he finished the fight in the third round. I am projecting this fight to follow the first and go the distance this weekend. If that happens, Moreno going over 62.5 should cash with ease.
Moreno has never been finished in his MMA career (24 fights) and Figueiredo was finished for the first time last summer (22 fights).
Pick 2: Michael Morales Under 55.5 Significant Strikes
Another DWCS alum! PrizePicks is giving Morales plenty of credit this weekend setting this line at 55.5 significant strikes for a three-round fight. Morales did not clear this number in his first fight, which went the full 15 minutes.
He faces off against Trevin Giles who is a +100 underdog. I am expecting Giles to win this fight and possibly via finish. Obviously, if that projection comes to fruition we would expect this fight to go under. Even if I am wrong on the finish, Morales getting 55.5 might be a tall order. Morales is more of a wrestler, so he might not be throwing very many strikes.
