UFC 271 will be live from Houston in front of a sold-out crowd.
The big Pay-Per-View card gets us started for perhaps the biggest sports betting weekend of the year. Between the Super Bowl and UFC 271, no one can complain about this weekend's sports slate.
With 14 fights scheduled to take place on Saturday, DraftKings Sportsbook is projecting 10 bouts to end inside the distance. Below I break down the best finishing props for UFC 271, plus two-play parlay on PrizePicks.
Let's dive right in!
UFC 271 Prop Bets
Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+165) / No (-225)
Kyler Phillips will face Marcelo Rojo in a Bantamweight scrap in the prelims. Phillips is a consensus -400 favorite in this bout with Rojo, a striker first who was more than willing to stand and bang with Charles Jourdain.
Where Rojo's game falls short is in the grappling department. He has four submission losses in his career and is clearly vulnerable in that regard. Phillips only has one win by submission in his career, but his BJJ black belt and wrestling skills show that there is a distinct disparity in the grappling department. A nearly 6-1 odds on this prop at PointsBet, I like Phillips to pull off the submission win here.
Prop bet: Kyler Phillips Wins by Submission +560
Jeremiah Wells vs. Mike "Blood Diamond" Mathetha
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+350) / No (-550)
Philadelphia's own Jeremiah Wells will face off against UFC newcomer Mike "Blood Diamond" Mathetha, a sparring partner of Israel Adesanya. In fact, the champ had plenty of praise for him at the UFC 271 Pre-Fight Press Conference.
Wells has been in the UFC for one fight, but showed off some impressive explosiveness. It would appear that both of these fighters are extremely impressive at finishing fights early. Mathetha is a kickboxer just like Adesanya is. It would be fair to assume that he has next to no grappling, but we have not seen much of any of his game in his three fights.
Watching some of his K1 kickboxing tapes, 'Blood Diamond' does leave his chin high but clearly has creative kicks and strikes. Mathetha is going to be tested very early in his UFC debut because Wells loves pushing the pace.
This fight is overwhelmingly expected to end early, but at -340 on FanDuel, there's no value on betting the under 2.5. Instead, I'm going with a time prop that is listed at plus money.
Prop bet: Fight Doesn't Start Round 2 (+102)
PrizePicks Parlay
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator that allows you to parlay two or more MMA props together. If both hit, you’ll get paid out 2X your initial wager. However, if only one hits, you’ll still get paid out 0.5X your initial wager.
Pick 1: Derek Brunson Under 3.0 Takedowns
Are we witnessing a rebirth for Derek Brunson? It sure seems that way with his wins over Kevin Holland and Darren Till. However, those two fighters have exhibited awful takedown defense. Jared Cannonier has defended almost all of the takedowns he has seen since moving from light heavyweight to middleweight.
In fact, Cannonier has the highest takedown defense in the history of the division (84.6%). I expect Cannonier to win this fight rather easily, and Brunson will badly struggle to drag Cannonier down to the mat.
Pick 2: Ronnie Lawrence Over 4.5 Takedowns
Ronnie Lawrence is another grappler on this weekend's card, but I am going in the opposite direction I did with Brunson. Lawrence is a fierce grappler for a Bantamweight and doesn't have bad striking either. This helps him set up his takedowns much better than other grapplers.
In Lawrence's two fights, he has eight and 11 takedowns, averaging 10.86 per 15 minutes. Lawrence has never had a submission victory, so expect a high volume of takedowns before a late ground and pound TKO or a decision win.
