UFC 272 doesn't have a title fight, but it has value for bettors up and down the card.
With 13 bouts set for Saturday night in Las Vegas, headlined by a grudge match at welterweight between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal, the event has a few matchups between fighters with similar styles. You know what they say: Styles make fights.
Our staff of MMA betting analysts have broken down the card and identified three fights with great value for bettors. Two of them are on the same fighter in the co-main event.
Check out their picks and detailed breakdowns below.
Billy Ward: Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Contributor at The Action Network
“Hussar” is the underdog in the first fight of the night, which is expected to be a stand-up war with Dustin Jacoby. A decorated striker, Jacoby has experience as both a boxer and kickboxer. However, Oleksiejczuk has superior power to his opponent.
Oleksiejczuk has three UFC wins by knockout and nearly quadrupled the knockdown rate as Jacoby. That creates a situation where Jacoby needs to win this fight for 15 minutes, but Oleksiejczuk only needs to land a punch or two.
Oleksiejczuk has both of his UFC losses coming by submission, and he has shown a solid chin.
With Jacoby showing little interest or ability in bringing the fight to the mat (1 for 4 on takedowns in five UFC fights), this one is likely to be decided on the feet.
If it does hit the floor, I’d give a slight edge to Oleksiejczuk, as well. He secured two takedowns in his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree, a unanimous decision win that was later ruled a no contest. I’m not sure he tries to take Jacoby down since he hasn’t taken anyone down since, but it’s a nice option to have if the striking isn’t going his way.
Hopefully, Oleksiejczuk mixes in some takedowns early on, which would force Jacoby to lower his hands and respect the possibility. If he gets the takedown it looks good to the judges, but even if he doesn’t it provides a strategic advantage.
I like getting +175 betting on a fighter with more paths to victory. Those paths individually aren’t as likely, but the combination of them favors Oleksiejczuk.
Pick: Oleksiejczuk +170
Erich Richter: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano
Contributor at The Action Network
The UFC 272 co-main event will take place at a 160-pound catchweight. dos Anjos has been preparing to fight for a long time, once expected to face off against Rafael Fiziev and then briefly perhaps Islam Makhachev. Now, it’s Renato Moicano.
Moicano fought three weeks ago at UFC 271, when he beat Alexander Hernandez. dos Anjos does not have that type of recent activity, having last fought in November 2020 when he beat the now-retired Paul Felder.
dos Anjos has faced off against some of the best fighters at 155 pounds (and 170 too). That list features Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2014 and championship bouts against Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez, among many others. He even outstruck Robbie Lawler in a five-round unanimous decision win in late 2017.
Outside of a potential early stoppage for Moicano, I don’t see how he wins this fight. For starters, dos Anjos should have a clear advantage while striking. Moreover, he has never been submitted in his 44 professional fights.
I am expecting a decision win here from dos Anjos, who just grinds his opponent down en route to a win. Moicano has been on at least four flights, spanning over 20 hours while cutting 20 pounds this week. This would require a herculean effort from him to get a win while being deficient in the striking department.
Back dos Anjos confidently to win via decision. The 37-year-old Brazilian has gone to the cards in six of his last seven fights against the UFC’s elite. This is worth a bet down to +190.
Pick: dos Anjos wins by decision +200
Sean Zerillo: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
It's challenging to lay a ton of juice on a favorite with limited finishing upside, despite the potentially dominant wrestling advantage. Colby's pace could potentially break Masvidal late, and his Round 4 (+1800) or Round 5 (+2500) props crossed my mind, but I would need to see double those odds to make a play.
Covington by decision (between -105 to -120, depending on the book) is likely the surest winning method bet (projected -129). Still, there is a far better way to play this fight.
I projected the fight to go the distance 64% of the time (-175 implied odds), and I bet that prop at FanDuel at -122.
Looking at the listed odds on that same book, they're telling you that Covington wins by decision at least 51.2% of the time (-105 listed odds) and that Masvidal wins by decision 7.7% of the time (+1200).
Based upon that information alone, one would expect the Goes the Distance odds to be -143 or higher before accounting for any vig, yet that Distance/Decision prop is shorting someone (likely Masvidal's) decision-driven equity.
