Maryna Moroz vs. Mariaya Agapova Odds
Maryna Moroz goes for her third straight win in the UFC women’s flyweight division at UFC 272 against Mariya Agapova.
Following two losses to veterans to Angela Hill and Carla Esparza, the Ukrainian Moroz won a pair of decisions against Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva, the latter of which earned her a Fight of the Night bonus. Agapova is 2-1 in the UFC with a pair of submission wins over Hannah Cifers and Mazo.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Moroz | Agapova | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:19 | 8:48 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/8/91 | 4/7/97 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.09 | 5.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 31% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.15 | 4.63 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.56 | 0.85 |
| TD Acc | 18% | 66% |
| TD Def | 47% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.8 |
For my money, Agapova vs. Moroz is Saturday's best grudge match, and I would have loved to see this fight as the main card opener. It should be a Fight of the Night contender.
I'll save you the backstory — google that on your own time — but just know that there is legitimate hatred here between these former teammates.
Naturally, I'm betting a decision prop in a fight that could be extremely violent.
Moroz, who's Ukraine's Olympic boxing coach, can keep this fight competitive on the feet with Agapova, a fluid, powerful, and high ceiling striker who is six years younger but has shown a wide degree of variance in her performances.
Moroz is technical on the feet and likely has the grappling upside here, too. She has shown a greater urgency for takedowns (17 attempts) in her past two fights — following a two-fight losing streak, and Agapova's takedown defense (33%) and getup game-rank amongst her lesser skills.
I'm very high on Agapova's long-term potential, but she has shown questionable fight IQ and cardio in the past (losing to Shana Dobson as a -1500 favorite). I don't see enough of a gap in any area of this matchup — aside from power/aggression — where Agapova has a significant skill advantage to justify her price tag.
Moroz vs. Agapova Pick
If Agapova comes out guns blazing and cannot secure a finish, she will likely wilt after the first round based upon prior results. I would look to bet Moroz live after Round 1.
I would need something closer to +170 to bet Moroz pre-fight (projected +148) since Agapova should win the opening frame. That said, I show value on Moroz to win by decision (projected +231, listed +400 at Caesars) and made that my only pre-fight position. I would bet that prop down to +300.
Bets
- Maryna Moroz wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
- Moroz Live after Round 1
