Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano Odds
UFC veteran Rafael dos Anjos faces Renato Moicano in a last-minute catchweight (160 pounds) fight in the UFC 272 co-main event.
Moicano stepped in at the last second for Rafael Fiziev, who contracted COVID after traveling to Las Vegas for this fight earlier in the week. Enter Moicano, who is coming off a second straight submission win last month at UFC 271 over Alexander Hernandez.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| dos Anjos | Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-13 | 16-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:16 | 8:11 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 160 lbs. | 160 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/26/84 | 5/21/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.49 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 3.58 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.93 | 2.14 |
| TD Acc | x37% | 53% |
| TD Def | 58% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice in place of Fiziev, who was listed as high as -275 in that fight before dropping off the card.
I would have bet dos Anjos ("RDA") as a sizable underdog against Fiziev, but seeing a 30%+ swing in implied probably from one matchup to the other initially gave me pause.
Still, RDA is a former lightweight champion and experienced five-round veteran (eight fights over 3.5 rounds, 10 scheduled for five rounds since 2015) who has possibly the most challenging slate of opponents in UFC history (Eddie Alvarez, Benson Henderson, Donald Cerrone, Colby Covington, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Anthony Pettis, Tony Ferguson and Kamaru Usman, to name a few).
Moicano is making his first venture into a five-round fight — and he hasn't responded well to pressure. Despite scoring a second-round finish at UFC 271 just three weeks ago, he lost the first round to Alexander Hernandez on one scorecard, and the live line tightened after the opening five minutes of action.
I don't necessarily trust the durability for Moicano, a former featherweight now fighting at 155, let alone at a 160 catchweight against a former welterweight in RDA, especially after cutting weight mere weeks ago.
Skill for skill, Moicano can undoubtedly make this fight competitive. He's a highly technical and efficient striker (+1.54 differential, 111 combined striking accuracy, and defensive percentage). In the early stages, I think he can edge minutes on the feet against dos Anjos (+0.27 differential, 107 combined number).
Moicano is a bit taller (three inches), longer (two-inch reach advantage) and likely faster on the feet when both fighters are fresh. He may be a superior wrestler (2.14 per 15 minutes, 53% accuracy vs. 58% defense for RDA), and he's very dangerous on top.
However, I suspect their grappling credentials neutralize one another's success on the mat and essentially turn this fight into a kickboxing match, one that could see RDA's pressure could pose problems for Moicano, whose game falls apart when he's pushed backward.
With an entire training camp for a three-round fight, I would consider betting Moicano at this same price. I see the skills and the path to victory. But this is as short notice as it gets and against as experienced an opponent as there is, who is also more durable with proven cardio over five rounds.
Unless RDA has declined at age 37 following a roughly 15-month layoff, he's on the clear side, given all the circumstances, for five rounds. And I think he can have some late grappling success, too.
dos Anjos vs. Moicano Picks
I would bet RDA's moneyline up to -200 (projected -250). You should also eye the live market for a better price after Round 1 and/or Round 2.
If Moicano sustains and survives a hard 25 minutes given the short notice double weight cut amidst his world travels, I'm happy to admit I got this one wrong.
Bets
- Rafael dos Anjos (-175, Risk 1u)
- Rafael dos Anjos Live after Round 1 and/or Round 2
