Player props are one of the most popular (and profitable) ways to bet sports, and now with PrizePicks, MMA fans can get in on the action. Projecting MMA statistics is a challenge, but there are certainly edges to be found.
Below, I'll give my two favorite selections for UFC 273, as well as some other lines that I think have edges — in case you're looking to build parlays with longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC 273 PrizePicks Parlay
Ian Garry: Fight Time Under 10 minutes
Undefeated Ian Garry (1-0 UFC) is taking on Darian Weeks (5-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) in the featured prelim bout of UFC 273. Ireland's Garry is one of the UFC's more prized prospects, and this bout looks to be a showcase for him.
Of his eight wins, six have came by finish, all within the first two rounds. He's also a big (-360 or so) favorite against Weeks, and betting markets have the over/under set at 1.5 rounds. (with under as the favorite.) Garry should have no problem dispatching Weeks so long as the fight remains standing — though he'll have to defend some takedowns along the way.
On the flip side, it's hard to see Week's picking up a win by riding this one to a decision. All five of his professional victories have taken less than 10 minutes, and he'll be looking to get Garry out of there quickly.
All in all, betting under on round props when we have lopsided betting odds is a solid strategy. Especially with larger fighters (this bout is at welterweight) who's finishing rates tend to be higher. The 10 minute line from PrizePicks is generous, so let's take advantage of it.
Julio Arce: Under 60.5 Significant Strikes
Minutes props aren't available on PrizePricks for the Juilo Arce vs. Daniel Santos fight, but we have an even better opportunity with his strikes prop. This is a fight I don't see going to a decision, but we have more ways to win by taking the under on strikes — let's see why.
Arce lands a relatively low volume of strikes relative to the rest of the division, at 4.14 per minute. That means we should expect him to fall right around the 60.5 this line as set at — if the fight makes it all 15 minutes.
However, Arce has finished all of his wins inside the Octagon. Santos has finished four of his last five pro fights as well. He's a dangerous striker, which could compel Arce to try to turn this into a grappling match.
If this one ends up being grapple heavy, it's hard to see Arce going over his line. A win inside 10 minutes or so — by either fighter — also virtually guarantees a win for the under.
Anytime we have a bet where there's a lot more ways to win than there are to lose, we should take it. That's the situation here.
Quick Hits:
- Khamzat Chimaev Under 2.0 Takedowns: Khamzat has never landed more than one takedown in a round in his UFC career. His opponents simply don't get back up. While I wish this line was 2.5, It's hard to see Gilbert Burns surviving two trips to the ground with Chimaev. A push might be the likeliest outcome here, but a win is more likely than a loss.
- Vinc Pichel Under 52.5 Significant Strikes: Pichel is facing Mark "The Olympian" Madsen. Madsen will be looking for takedowns throughout this fight. Even if Pichel is able to fend them off, it doesn't leave him much time to throw strikes. His 3.42 per minute rate projects just under on a 15-minute fight, and that doesn't take into account the matchup.
- Alexander Volkanovski Over 2.0 Takedowns: Volk averages roughly 0.6 takedowns landed per round across his UFC career. He's fighting Chan Sung Jung, who's tough to put away standing but doesn't excel defensively. Jung should be durable enough to make this a longer fight, giving Volk plenty of chances to pick up takedowns.
