It's an exciting weekend in the UFC with two title fights slated for the 12-bout UFC 276 pay-per-view card. Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya will take on Jared Cannonier in the main event and Alexander Volkanovski will face Max Holloway in the third fight of their trilogy.
The card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN with three early prelims, then switches to ABC for the featured prelims at 8 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight PPV card at 10 p.m. ET.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Billy Ward: Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green
Contributor at The Action Network
Gabe Green is taking on undefeated Irish prospect Ian “The Future” Garry on the UFC 276 prelims. Garry is a former Cage Warriors champion, and will be making his third UFC appearance on Saturday night. However, it’s a major step up in competition for Garry.
Both of his prior UFC fights came against fighters without a UFC win — either before or after fighting Garry. Green is 2-1 in his UFC sting, with a pair of fairly impressive wins. He outwrestled Phillip Rowe en route to a decision victory last year, the followed that up with a knockout of Yohan Lainesse in his last bout.
Lainesse, like Garry, was an undefeated prospect known for his striking, but Green was able to overcome a knockdown and put him away. Both of Green’s wins came against fighters with reach advantages — something the 6-foot-3 Garry relies on heavily.
Green has clearly solved that puzzle though, and is giving up only an inch in reach to the much taller Garry. Green is also 29 years old — at or near his physical peak — and should be much stronger than the 24-year-old Garry.
Finally, Green should possess the wrestling upside here. Garry hasn’t shown an ability to wrestle yet in the UFC, with a few half-hearted takedown attempts so far. That gives Green a path to winning rounds even if the striking doesn’t go his way.
I’d make this fight as roughly a toss-up, with even that being based on the assumption of significant growth from Garry. At +150 odds, Green is too good to pass up. Garry has a bright future, but Green is the better bet in the present.
The Pick: Gabe Green ML (+150)
Sean Zerillo: Brad Tavares vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Staff Writer at The Action Network
All 18 of Dricus Du Plessis' pro-MMA fights have ended inside the distance, including his losses. Brad Tavares doesn't have much finishing ability (12 of his 14 UFC wins came by decision), but he has been knocked out three times — so he isn't exceptionally durable either.
Du Plessis is a fast starter who tends to gas out the longer his fights go. He's a bit of an unorthodox mover but is very accurate with his hands and capable of changing levels and submitting opponents on the ground.
While Tavares should be able to deny any takedown attempts (79% career) from Du Plessis, the South African is an all-action fighter who will find ways to land on Tavares off the counter.
Tavares is the more technical striker — and likely the better minute winner. However, Du Plessis has substantially more finishing upside, justifying his favoritism.
Middleweight fights end inside the distance around 60% of the time, and I put this one at 62% (-163 implied). I'm surprised that the number is around 4.5% below the divisional average.
As a result, I bet the fight ends inside the distance art -110; and although that price has increased, you can still play that up to -150 at a 2% edge.
Additionally, you can bet Du Plessis to win inside the distance down to +117 at a similar edge (projected +108, listed +138 at BetRivers).
The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+138, 0.25u) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-124, 0.5u)
