UFC 277 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for Each of Saturday’s 13 Fights

The UFC returns to Dallas with a 13-fight card on Saturday for UFC 277, highlighted by a pair of title fights in the women's bantamweight and men's flyweight divisions.

The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ before moving to ABC and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight PPV main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET via ESPN+.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 277 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission.

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

UFC 277 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 277 Odds

Orion Cosce vs. Blood Diamond

Crowdsourced Projections: Orion Cosce (69.2%)

Cosce missed weight by 1.5 pounds on Friday, adding reason to doubt his already-suspect cardio. Fighters who miss weight in the UFC win at a 46% clip, compared to closing odds of +100 (50% implied), or four percent below expectation.

Orion – and his brother Louis – are both fast starters and frontrunners who tend to wilt after five to seven minutes. And any additional drain on their gas tank – from a rough weight cut or attritional work by opponents in their fights – can severely limit their chances in an extended fight.

Unlike Lewis, Orion has a trio of third-round finishes on his record. Perhaps he has the better gas tank of the two brothers.

And he should be the far better wrestler in this matchup. Blood Diamond's MMA skillset – and physical attributes, including cardio – are still largely a mystery.

The 34-year-old only has four minutes of cage time in the past two years, and he spent most of it fighting off submission attempts from Jeremiah Wells in a difficult UFC debut.

While he should be the more dangerous striker, I'm dubious that the gap in MMA striking between the pair is nearly as wide as the grappling differential. And while I'm skeptical of Cosce's ability to sustain in the second half of the fight, I could say the same for his opponent.

Aside from the weight miss, I was happy to take the younger fighter with more MMA experience and a significant wrestling advantage against a kickboxer whose MMA skillset likely rates between "UFC replacement level" and "doesn't belong at this level."

However, given the correlated concerns surrounding his cardio and weight miss, this could also be a spot to pass.

You can bet Cosce on the moneyline, small, up to -200 (66.7% implied) at a 2.5% edge compared to my projected number.

Bets

• Orion Cosce (-190, Risk 0.5 units) at PointsBet

Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria

Crowdsourced Projections: Nicolae Negumereanu (53.4%)

Negumereanu is a fortunate 3-1 in the UFC, including a pair of (likely undeserved) split decisions, while Potieira – a potent finisher – makes his promotional debut.

The line flipped toward the octagon veteran after opening closer to +150; I agree with the movement. UFC veterans win at a 57% clip against debutants. Even though Negumereanu has fewer career fights, he has proven competitive at the highest level. Having a three-inch reach advantage, and potentially a grappling advantage, doesn't hurt either.

Negumereanu's striking is sloppy (39% accuracy), and he absorbs a lot of strikes (38% defense). Still, he hits hard and has proven exceedingly durable, which has helped to sway those split decisions in his favor despite getting out-landed by 31 strikes in each fight.

Enthusiasm and aggression play well to the judges in sloppy fights, and Negumereanu thrives in the slop when his fights become a grind.

I don't show value in this fight from a moneyline, total or prop perspective. However, you can look to live bet Negumereanu after Round 1, when Potieira (14 of 19 wins in Round 1) will likely begin to slow down.

Bets

• Nicolae Negumereanu Live after Round 1

Joselyne Edwards vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Crowdsourced Projections: Ji Yeon Kim (52.4%)

Edwards missed weight for Saturday's fight, and to reiterate the stat from earlier, fighters who miss weight in the UFC win about four percent below expectation (46% win rate, +100 or 50% average odds).

I expected Edwards to be the bigger fighter at 135 pounds, having competed at featherweight (145) six weeks ago, while Kim is moving up from flyweight (125).

Still, Kim will have the reach advantage (two inches) and try to keep Edwards at the end of her long straight punches, while the Panamanian fighter tries to counter with hooks.

Kim's defensive wrestling (36% takedown defense) is a liability in most matchups. Still, Edwards does her best work on the feet, and I doubt these two spend significant time grappling.

Kim should be the more active and faster striker and likely land more volume over 15 minutes, while Edwards should have the power advantage. Kim lost a striking battle with Priscila Cachoeira despite landing 68 additional strikes (170-102) in her most recent fight, succumbing to pure physicality and aggression. She may see a repeat of that outcome here, with Edwards' power spoiling her output.

I expect the speed for Kim to prove the most significant difference in the matchup, and if she can stick and move in the big cage and keep Edwards from bullying her around, I expect her to land the cleaner strikes in the fight.

You can bet Kim's moneyline at any plus-money price (projected -110).

Kim by decision (projected +155, listed +163 at Rivers) is the closest thing to value in the prop or total markets.

Bets

• Ji Yeon Kim (+110, 0.5u at BetMGM)

Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt

Crowdsourced Projections: Michael Morales (85.6%)

Fugitt is a short-notice debutant, stepping in for Ramiz Brahimaj. Earlier in this piece, I referenced the win rate for debutants (43%) against octagon veterans.

In general, short-notice replacements (within 40 days of the fight) win at a 35% clip in the UFC, at average odds closer to +186 (34.97% implied), roughly in line with expectation.

Beyond that, there's a 10-year age gap between these two fighters. When UFC opponents have an eight-year age gap or more, the younger fighter wins 66% of the time, at average odds of -125 (55%), about 11% above expectation.

Morales is a young prospect with good wrestling, judo and jiu-jitsu. He's also physically strong – with excellent top pressure – and carries legitimate knockout power at 170. At 23, he looks every bit like a future contender.

Fugitt is a competent striker and grappler with a collegiate wrestling background, but he's likely at a physicality disadvantage and a strength deficit in all clinch positions and scrambles. He can survive off his back, but I don't think he can stop Morales from bringing the fight to the mat if that's where he wants it.

Morales should be able to dictate every minute of this fight with his wrestling, and I would lean to Morales inside the distance as a pick. However, my projected odds (-179) fall short of the market (-190 at Draftkings).

I don't see any value in this fight from a moneyline, prop, or live-betting perspective. You could take a poke at the Over 1.5 Rounds up to -110, which I sprinkled in a small parlay with another Over 1.5 on the card.

Bets

• Parlay (+354, 0.1u): Morales/Fugitt Over 1.5 Rounds (-108) & Lewis/Pavlovich Over 1.5 Rounds (+136) at Fanduel

Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia

Crowdsourced Projections: Drakkar Klose (66.9%)

Klose is the more technical fighter, but Garcia is a bit more enthusiastic in the cage, which could mean the difference on the scorecards.

Garcia has shown an ability to fight to his level of competition and turn his bouts into coinflips – whether for good or bad, depending on his moneyline price.

He keeps a solid pace on the feet and shoots takedowns at high volume (8.5 attempts per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy). He's also shown a more well-rounded skillset and improved cardio in his recent fights, so "Gifted" may be hitting his prime at age 27.

Klose has the better wins and has faced the superior slate of opponents. And he may be the more skilled fighter everywhere in this matchup. Still, the margins aren't particularly drastic in any one area.

Neither fighter had a significant advantage in any aspect of this fight, and I don't view either lightweight as a potent finisher. I could easily foresee Garcia stealing a close decision.

I projected this bout to go to a decision 67% of the time (-200 implied), and I would bet the Fight to Go to a Decision up to -183 (listed -180 at FanDuel), at a two percent edge compared to my number.

Garcia wins by Decision (projected +404, listed +420 at FanDuel), could be worth a small poke too.

Bets

• Fight goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Rafa Garcia wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

Crowdsourced Projections: Don'Tale Mayes (70.3%)

Abdelwahab is fighting in place of Justin Tafa as a short-notice debutant. He is an Olympic-level wrestler with limited MMA experience.

Mayes has faced better competition and made significant strides as a fighter, particularly in his wrestling and grappling. And he should be the cleaner striker in this matchup while standing 4 inches taller, with a nine-inch reach advantage.

If Mayes can deny the takedowns (62% career takedown defense) and keep this fight standing, he should pour damage on Abdelwahab. And even if he's on the wrong end of some wrestling exchanges, I expect him to land the shots when these two eventually return to their feet.

Abdelwahab carries power, and Mayes needs to keep this fight at range and use his length to avoid eating a knockout blow. Ultimately, I expect the more experienced and well-rounded fighter to pull away and Mayes to secure another attritional-based stoppage.

I projected Don'Tale Mayes as a 70% favorite in this fight and would bet his moneyline up to -215 at a two percent edge compared to my number.

Moreover, I projected Mayes to win inside the distance 49% of the time (70% of his win condition), and I would bet his odds to win inside the distance down to +125.

Bets

• Don'Tale Mayes (-180, 0.75u) at Caesars
• Don'Tale Mayes Wins Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves

Crowdsourced Projections: Drew Dober (58.9%)

Alves is a dangerous fighter with an early finishing upside in any bout before fading in the second half of his matchups. Conversely, Dober is a master survivalist who outlasts opponents with superior cardio and durability.

As a result, Alves's violence props (inside the distance, submission, win in round 1) and Dober's late props or live bets are the best ways to wager on such a stylistic clash.

Alves carries enough power to stun Dober on the feet, but he'll likely have to turn that opportunity into a club 'n' sub to secure the finish. And he's a highly opportunistic grappler who can seize upon that chaos. He might even be able to take down Dober (52% takedown defense) and go to work from there.

I expect Alves to have frontloaded success in this matchup, but once the momentum flips and Dober takes over, it should be one-way traffic for the American.

Alves wins by submission (projected +343, listed +480 at Caesars), or Alves wins inside the distance (projected +225, listed +275) have my attention from a pre-fight betting perspective. I'm going to think about adding a position

However, the better angle may be to wait to play Dober live after Round 1, hopefully at a plus-money price, if he can survive the opening frame.

Bets

• Drew Dober Live after Round 1

Alex Morono vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Crowdsourced Projections: Matthew Semelsberger (57.8%)

While Morono has more MMA experience – and has faced a more challenging slate of competition than Semelsberger – the former could be at a severe athletic disadvantage in this matchup against a taller and longer fighter (2 inches of height, three inches of reach).

Semelsberger should be the bigger, faster and stronger athlete, and the striking output should be relatively similar.

Morono is likely the better grappler, and Semelsberger has shown deficiencies in takedown defense and fighting off his back. However, Morono rarely shoots takedowns (0.35 per 15 minutes), and I don't trust his wrestling to get this fight to the mat.

I expect to see a striking fight where Semelsberger lands the more impactful shots, but Morono keeps the optics close throughout.

Morono wins by Decision (projected +216, listed +235 at BetRivers) was the only wager that stands out from a value perspective. And perhaps – with a takedown or two – the Texas native can extend his three-fight winning streak.

It's not something I'm inclined to stake significantly, however, at a slight edge and with the power optics and finishing upside all pointing toward Semsleberger.

Bets

• Pass

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith

Crowdsourced Projections: Magomed Ankalaev (80.1%)

Ankalaev may be the uncrowned light heavyweight champion, but his recent efforts have underwhelmed.

His lone blemish remains a (somewhat suspicious) stoppage loss in his promotional debut (with one second remaining) in a fight he dominated against Paul Craig (as a -800 favorite).

After rattling off four finishes in his next five bouts, Ankalaev has recorded a trio of underwhelming decisions. He enters Saturday on the cusp of title contention, but he needs a highlight-reel performance.

Smith's primary weakness is takedown defense (48%), and Akalaev is a solid wrestler, but he rarely grapples as much as he should (three takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 33% accuracy). If he brings his wrestling singlet to this fight, he may look like a massive favorite from the jump.

Smith has excellent jiu-jitsu but isn't nearly as adept at attacking his back as in top position. And Ankalaev has shown firm control when he puts opponents on their backs. Still, he's not reliable to wrestle, but we'll see if that changes in this fight.

I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet. And the striking matchup between Smith's jab and Ankalaev's check left hook could largely determine the outcome.

While I would give Ankalaev more finishing upside, Smith is a crafty fighter with a wealth of experience (52 professional fights), and he can undoubtedly edge a decision – in Texas against a Russian – in a slow-paced kickboxing match. It's a pace and distance that Ankalaev is far too happy to oblige.

Ankalaev's lack of urgency toward minute-winning will eventually cost him, and that variance increases in a three-round fight. And Smith is enthusiastic enough to steal a close decision.

I projected this fight to reach a decision 60% of the time and would bet that prop up to -135 (57.5% implied) at a 2.5% edge.

Additionally, I could make a case for the Smith moneyline (projected +403), and I will monitor his line until closer to fight time, but I would love to get something closer to +500.

I also show value on Ankalaev by Decision (projected -110, listed +110) and Smith by submission (projected +1337, listed +1500), but I'm going to stay on the Goes to Decision side of things and look for a peak price on Smith.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-128, 0.5u) at FanDuel

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexandre Pantoja (59.4%)

Thanks to a series of canceled bouts, Perez hasn't competed since his short-notice November 2020 title shot against now-champ Deiveson Figueiredo.

I view him as the more technical fighter, with superior wrestling and cardio, against the more powerful striker and dangerous grappler in Pantoja. Those respective skill sets point toward Perez as the superior minute-winner throughout three rounds, mainly down the stretch.

He should dictate where the fight takes place and be able to mix his striking and wrestling. And so long as he doesn't get his back taken in a scramble or get clipped on the feet, this could be his fight to lose.

Perez owns the superior striking metrics (+1.54 to +0.9 strike differential per minute, +6% defense), and he's reliable to wrestle (6.5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 45% accuracy). And Pantoja is not nearly as dangerous off his back as he is in scrambles – where he can snatch a back or a neck in the thick of chaos.

Perez may be able to take down Pantoja and control him in guard while landing moderate ground and pound. And he should land slightly more volume – though perhaps less damaging blows – when the fight returns to striking range.

All signs point to a competitive flyweight bout in which Perez has higher decision equity while Pantoja has more finishing upside, particularly early.

I projected Perez at +146 (40.6% implied) in this fight and would bet him down to +150 pre-fight. You can also look for live prices after Round 1 since his success should build the longer the fight goes.

And you can also bet Perez to win by Decision (projected +310, listed +380 at BetRivers) in the winning method market.

On the Pantoja side, I'd prefer his knockout and submission props (or inside-the-distance prop) to his moneyline.

Bets

• Alex Perez (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Alex Perez wins by Decision (+380, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Alex Perez Live after Round 1

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Crowdsourced Projections: Sergei Pavlovich (52.5%)

A heavyweight matchup between two finish-reliant brawlers with poor cardio can only play out in one of two ways: quick finish or gassy slop-fest.

Surprisingly, these fighters are a combined 7-2 on the scorecards. But one must imagine Lewis would benefit from a close, low-volume fight in his home state of Texas.

While Lewis isn't a technical fighter or the best minute-winner, his presence and power still represent a serious step up in competition for Pavlovich relative to the Russian's previous opponents.

Lewis has competed with the best heavyweights in the world for nearly a decade, and Pavlovich's best win – over an aged Shamil Abdurakhimov – is someone Lewis knocked out in the fourth round back in 2016.

Experience and strength of schedule certainly point toward Lewis, though he may certainly be reaching the tail-end of his career.

He likely has the grappling upside here, too, though. Pavlovich's lone loss came after a takedown and ground and pound from Alistair Overeem.

Lewis utilized the same trip technique in his past two bouts against Chris Daukaus (leading to a knockout) and Tai Tuivasa (leading to a pair of takedowns) in his past two fights. If he can pine Pavlovich up against the cage, take him down and land a couple of big shots, it could be a wrap.

And Lewis owns the puncher's chance of all puncher's chances in any matchup.

Pavlovich does have a five-inch reach advantage, and he's undoubtedly faster and more technical. Still, despite some decision wins – including a five-round fight on the regional scene – his cardio and durability in a slugfest remain a question mark.

The Russian opened closer to +120 in this matchup, but the line has flipped. I would have taken either fighter at this number in what essentially amounts to a coinflip matchup.

Pavlovich certainly had value at the open, but Lewis seems like the clear value side at the close; you can bet him to +120.

Playing the Fight to Go to a Decision (projected +467, listed +510 at FanDuel) or the Over 1.5 rounds (+136) seems reasonably contrarian too.

Bets

• Derrick Lewis (+125, 0.5u) at Draftkings
• Fight goes to Decision (+510, 0.1u) at Fanduel

Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France

Crowdsourced Projections: Brandon Moreno (66.2%)

Both fighters have made tremendous improvements since their first encounter in 2019, when Moreno closed as a +140 underdog.

Kara-France won the first round before Moreno continued to increase the pace, taking the second and third rounds in a clear 29-28 (or 30-27) decision. He never attempted to grapple.

I would certainly expect Moreno to mix in takedowns (6.5 attempts per 25 minutes, 47% accuracy) alongside his striking in this matchup. Kara-France should be the faster and more powerful striker, particularly early. And he's the more technical kickboxer with far better head movement (65% striking defense).

Moreno tends to eat big shots and often relies on his elite durability to a fault. Kara-France should have a ton of success early when this fight stays standing, and his takedown defense and wrestling looked improved in his win over Askar Askarov (denied 12 of 14 attempts, spent 5:14 in control positions), to the point where I expect to see a striking matchup at range – at least early on.

The longer the fight, the more success Moreno may have, particularly with his takedown attempts. He needs to exploit his most significant advantage – a recent familiarity with the championship rounds – and work to tire his opponent by maintaining pressure while avoiding explosive counters.

From a pre-fight betting perspective, Kara-France seems like the side. I expect this live line to tighten after rounds 1 or 2, where the Kiwi likely has his best moments. I would expect Moreno to take over down the stretch and would look for a superior price on Moreno during the early rounds.

Kara-France has the skillset to keep this fight competitive. I'm uncertain that he can overcome Moreno's more diverse skillset and potential cardio advantage.

Bets

• Brandon Moreno Live after Rounds 1, 2 and 3

Juliana Pena vs. Amanda Nunes

Crowdsourced Projections: Amanda Nunes (62.5%)

Check out my full fight preview for additional information on Saturday's main event.

I typically look to bet Nunes the same way: play her inside the distance and win in Round 1 props. And I look to live bet her opponent after the first or second rounds. Relative to the first fight, those pre-fight props have moved substantially.

In December, Nunes closed anywhere from -278 (73.5% implied) to -350 (77.8% implied) to win inside the distance against Pena. Her average line to win in Round 1 closed at +150 (40% implied).

For the rematch, those odds are nearer to -120 (54.5% implied) and +250 (28.5% implied), respectively.

My initial reaction was to buy the dip and to play the Nunes props at far superior (and more reasonable) odds relative to the first fight.

And if you are backing Nunes, that's how I would play this fight; her violence props are far better options than laying the juice on her moneyline.

That said, Pena still isn't getting enough respect in the betting market. While Nunes may look like the more dominant fighter for the first five to seven minutes, Pena should eventually take over in a 25-minute matchup, provided she survives the early onslaught.

While you could wait to live bet Pena after the first round – when she's likely out of the most severe danger – I doubt the books will move the number substantially; even if she loses the round, they are wise to Nunes' poor cardio too.

I projected Julianna Pena as a 37.5% underdog (+167 implied) in this fight, and I would bet her moneyline down to +186 at a 2.5% edge compared to my projection.

Moreover, I project betting value on Pena to win by Decision (projected +567, listed +600 at DraftKings), by KO/TKO (projected +1234, listed +1300 at BetRivers), or by submission (projected +567, listed +700 at BetRivers), depending upon the book.

Consequently, I see value in the Pena to win inside the distance prop (projected +344, listed +450 at BetMGM).

I played Pena on the moneyline, in addition to her finish prop. And I wouldn't hate a stab on her late-round props (win in Round 3, in Round 4, in Round 5) either. However, I'd prefer my pre-fight allocation and live entry points after the first, second, and possibly third rounds, as I expect Pena to take over the fight down the stretch.

If you're playing the Nunes side, make sure to play her inside the distance prop (-125 at DraftKings) and her win in Round 1 prop (+250 at FanDuel) at far superior prices relative to the first fight. Either of those outcomes should be correlated more closely to her moneyline price.

Bets

• Julianna Pena (+225, 0.5u) at Draftkings
• Julianna Pena Wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.2u) at BetMGM
• Julianna Pena Live after Rounds 1, 2, and 3

Zerillo's UFC 277 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

• Garcia/Klose, Fight goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5 units) at FanDuel
• Rafa Garcia wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Ankalaev/Smith, Fight Goes to Decision (-128, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Lewis/Pavlovich, Fight goes to Decision (+510, 0.1u) at Fanduel
• Alex Perez wins by Decision (+380, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

• Don'Tale Mayes Wins Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Julianna Pena Wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.2u) at BetMGM

Moneylines

• Orion Cosce (-190, Risk 0.5u) at PointsBet
• Ji Yeon Kim (+110, 0.5u at BetMGM)
• Don'Tale Mayes (-180, 0.75u) at Caesars
• Alex Perez (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Derrick Lewis (+125, 0.5u) at Draftkings
• Julianna Pena (+225, 0.5u) at Draftkings

Parlays

• Parlay (+354, 0.1u): Morales/Fugitt Over 1.5 Rounds (-108) & Lewis/Pavlovich Over 1.5 Rounds (+136) at Fanduel

Live Betting Notes

• Nicolae Negumereanu Live after Round 1
• Drew Dober Live after Round 1
• Alex Perez Live after Round 1
• Brandon Moreno Live after Rounds 1, 2 and 3
• Julianna Pena Live after Rounds 1, 2, and 3