Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon Odds
Lightweights Leonardo Santos and Jared Gordon will match up at UFC 278 with both fighters looking to bounce back from recent losses.
Gordon suffered a submission loss to Grant Dawson earlier this year, which snapped his three-fight winning streak. Santos suffered back-to-back losses to Dawson and Clay Guida in 2021 after starting his UFC career unbeaten (7-0-1).
Which of these fighters will get back in the win column first?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Santos | Gordon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6-1 | 18-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:26 | 11:28 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/5/80 | 9/6/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.88 | 5.24 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.77 | 3.20 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.01 | 2.22 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 39% |
| TD Def | 86% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
As a 42-year-old lightweight, Santos doesn't have much win equity outside of Round 1, and his odds to win in the opening frame (+900 at FanDuel) or inside the distance (projected +346, listed +400 at DraftKings) are appealing.
The Brazilian is a powerful striker and a dangerous submission grappler, and it seems likely that he'll put Gordon in dangerous spots early in this bout.
Gordon relies on his grappling, and Santos has strong takedown defense (86%), mainly when he's fresh. He could find openings on the feet and win by early knockout or club-and-sub.
Santos is the much bigger man (3 inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage), and he could big-brother Gordon in the first round.
Santos vs. Gordon Pick
Gordon will need to weather the early storm and drag Santos to deep waters, where he should eventually take over minute-winning significantly.
Gordon makes for a solid live bet after Round 1 when Santos' gas tank should be running on empty.
You could roll those Santos finish props into a Gordon live bet or wait to fire at the live line after the opening round.
The Picks:
- Leonardo Santos wins in Round 1 (+850, 0.1u at Caesars)
- Jared Gordon Live after Round 1
