Marcin Tybura vs. Alexander Romanov Odds
The featured prelim bout at UFC 278 brings us a matchup between heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Alexandr Romanov.
Tybura had won five straight fights prior to his recent loss Alexander Volkov. Romanov is undefeated in his career, including 5-0 in the UFC with four finishes.
Which of these two heavyweights will move up the division rankings?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Tybura | Romanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-7 | 16-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:21 | 7:26 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 249 lbs. | 262 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/9/85 | 12/11/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.65 | 4.23 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 1.35 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.54 | 6.46 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 69% |
| TD Def | 82% | 20% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.6 |
Tybura is my favorite underdog play on Saturday's card.
The Polish heavyweight is the taller, longer, and heavier fighter with apparent advantages in striking and cardio. Moreover, he's faced a far more difficult slate of opponents than Romanov to this point in their respective careers.
Romanov relies on his grappling – and top game. Still, I'm uncertain that he's the better grappler than Tybura. While Romanov may get takedowns early in this fight, Tybura is skilled at staying safe and working up off his back.
To justify his steep price tag, one would assume that Romanov needs to run through Tybura on the mat; I don't see that happening in this fight.
And if Tybura can extend the fight and get Romanov to deep waters, he should take over the second and third rounds at a high clip.
Romanov has essentially faced low-level grapplers in the UFC's heavyweight division, while Tybura presents a far stiffer test. And the only time Romanov went deep into a fight – seeing the third round against Juan Espino – he quit after a cup check.
Tybura vs. Romanov Pick
I expect a close and competitive affair – in a high variance division – in which Tybura has more success increasingly down the stretch.
As a result, you can live bet Tybura after Round 1, but I also love his moneyline pre-fight down to +225, in addition to his decision prop (projected +424, listed +650 at MGM).
Moreover, I show value in the fight to go to a decision (projected +133, listed +155 at Caesars). Still, I prefer to lay the juice on the Over 1.5 rounds (listed -175 at MGM), considering the potential that one or both of these heavyweights gas out completely – at high altitude – late in the fight.
The Picks:
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-175, Risk 1u at BetMGM)
- Marcin Tybura (+300, 0.5u at Caesars)
- Marcin Tybura wins by Decision (+650, 0.1u at BetMGM)
- Marcin Tybura Live after Round 1
