Sean Woodson vs. Luis Saldana Odds
Rising featherweights Sean Woodson and Luis Saldana will go head-to-head on the prelim card at UFC 278.
Woodson enters the bout on a two-fight winning streak, and Saldana is also coming off a win in his most recent bout. Woodson has some significant physical advantages, specifically his 6-foot-2 height and 78-inch reach.
Which of these two Dana White's Contender Series alums has value in this matchup?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Woodson | Saldana | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 16-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:49 | 13:56 |
| Height | 6'2" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/7/92 | 1/27/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.75 | 4.92 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.79 | 3.32 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.54 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 20% |
| TD Def | 82% | 44% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Woodson is a sharp boxer who will have significant advantages in height (3 inches taller), reach (five inches), and cardio against Saldana.
While he struggles against grapplers, Woodson shouldn't have too much issue picking apart a much smaller boxer on the feet.
And Saldana's success – and output – should diminish substantially after the opening five minutes. Saldana slows in low-paced affairs and could crumble under Woodson's pressure and pace (12.9 significant strike attempts per minute).
I'd imagine Saldana will look to grapple Woodson after landing a pair of takedowns in his most recent win. Still, wrestling will only serve to tire him out for the late stages of this fight, where Woodson will step on the gas and pour on the volume.
Woodson vs. Saldana Pick
I'd imagine Saldana will look to grapple Woodson after landing a pair of takedowns in his most recent win. Still, wrestling will only serve to tire him out for the late stages of this fight, where Woodson will step on the gas and pour on the volume.
You can look to bet Woodson live after a relatively competitive Round 1. And you can consider using his moneyline as a parlay piece (projected -370)
Pre-fight, you should bet Woodson to win inside the distance (projected +155, listed +155 at Pointsbet) or by KO/TKO (projected +154, listed +170 at BetRivers) and take a stab at his Round 2 (+650 at BetMGM) and Round 3 (+1000 at BetMGM) props since he is more of an attritional-based finisher as opposed to a one-punch knockout artist.
The Picks:
- Sean Woodson wins Inside the Distance (+155, 0.33u at Pointsbet)
- Woodson wins in Round 2 (+650, 0.1u at MGM)
- Woodson wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u at MGM)
- Woodson Live after Round 1
