Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker Odds
The UFC 278 main card opens with light heavyweights Tyson Pedro and Harry Hunsucker.
Pedro is coming off a first-round TKO win over Ike Villanueva, and Hunsucker hasn't made it out of the first round in any of his three fights in the UFC.
With the odds tilted heavily in Pedro's favor, is there value to be found elsewhere in this fight?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Pedro | Hunsucker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 7-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:32 | 2:05 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/17/91 | 1/3/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.89 | 3.83 |
| SS Accuracy | 64% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.36 | 6.70 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.66 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 0% |
| TD Def | 52% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 2.4 |
Pedro is the most significant favorite on Saturday's card. And this fight is incredibly likely to end inside the distance (listed -1200 at Caesars); I can't recall seeing a three-round fight juiced more heavily to the Under 1.5 Rounds (-350).
In 12 professional bouts, Hunsucker has never been to the second round. He offers poor durability and cardio but is willing to lose on his shield; he goes down swinging in each fight.
A former heavyweight, Hunsucker is making a move down to 205 for this matchup. And perhaps his durability improves against a lower level of power.
Still, Pedro is the bigger man (four-inch reach advantage), and he should be able to hammer Hunsucker with low kicks from the outside or grapple him with relative ease.
Pedro vs. Hunsucker Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total for this fight.
Regarding winning method props, Hunsucker's win in Round 1 prop (+1400 at FanDuel) should likely be closer to his moneyline price. And Hunsucker by KO/TKO (projected +892, listed +1100 at FanDuel) technically qualifies as a value too. Still, I'm unwilling to throw the darts on Hunsucker, even for small stakes.
And I feel similarly about Pedro by decision (projected +1068, listed +1200 at Caesars); I'm not banking on Hunsucker to survive 15 minutes for the first time in his career after finally cutting weight.
The Pick: Pass
