The UFC is back on pay-per-view on Saturday night with UFC 278. Just one title fight this time around: long-time welterweight champion Kamaru Usman vs. former foe Leon Edwards. Down the card, you can get action down on 12 other fights, which kick off at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT).
In case you aren't in a legal betting state, one way to get some of that action down is on PrizePicks. Even if you do have legal betting, the "player prop" style format offers a unique way to attack Saturday's contests.
Below, you'll find my favorite parlay for UFC 278, as well as some other options to add on for increased payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Kamaru Usman – Under 100.5 Significant Strikes
Kamaru Usman has topped this number in two of his five title defenses. However, both of those came against Colby Covington. Covington is an excellent wrestler whereas Usman clearly had the edge on the feet. That naturally led to a higher striking output than Usman's baseline.
This time around, his defense comes against Leon Edwards. Edwards is known for his striking, and Usman is somewhat likely to take a grappling-heavy approach against him.
Even if that's not Usman's plan of attack, there are a lot of ways for this one to go under. Usman's 4.66 strikes landed per minute would require more than 20 minutes of action for him to clear the century mark.
Additionally, Edwards has excellent striking defense, absorbing only 2.15 per minute with a 55% defense rate. If Edwards defense is able to bring down Usman's output even slightly, even a full 25 minutes wouldn't be enough for Usman to land more than 100 strikes.
Of course, it's no guarantee this one goes a full 25 minutes. While it's -150 (60% implied) to do so, the other 40% almost guarantees the under. That gives us a few paths to success here: Usman taking a wrestling-heavy approach, the fight ending early, or Edwards' defense holding up. Those are the props I like to target.
Tyson Pedro Fight Time – Over 3.5 Minutes
Tyson Pedro is the card's biggest favorite at a whopping -730 or longer across the industry. That line reflects the expectation that he makes short work of his opponent, Harry Hunsucker, on Saturday.
It's not hard to see how oddsmakers came to that conclusion. Hunsucker is 0-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming via knockout in under two minutes. However, both of those were heavyweight fights. The first came against knockout artist Tai Tuivasa, and the second against Justin Tafa.
Hunsucker was an undersized heavyweight, with Tafa actually missing the heavyweight limit of 265 lbs. Hunsucker was likely giving up roughly 50 lbs in the cage for that fight.
This fight is being contested at light heavyweight, where I expect Hunsucker's chin to hold up much better. Pedro has very solid power, but it's likely a significant step down from Tuivasa or the massive Tafa.
Additionally, all of Pedro's seven UFC fights have gone past the 210-second mark. While I'm not suggesting Hunsucker has much of a shot of winning here, it's less of a stretch to ask him to survive a bit deeper into this one than in his past bouts.
Quick Picks
- Victor Altamirano Over 62.5 Significant Strikes: Altamirano has landed nearly six significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, and his opponent, Daniel Lacerda, has absorbed more than seven. As long as this one doesn't turn into an extended grappling match, there's a clear path to the over.
- AJ Fletcher Under 2.5 Takedowns: Fletcher's opponent, Ange Loosa, successfully defended a pair of takedown attempts in his debut, a decision loss to Mounir Lazzez. Loosa also has a massive seven-inch reach edge, which he should be able to use to keep his distance in the larger cage on Saturday. Additionally, Fletcher may only need one or two takedowns to finish Lazzez on the ground.
