Li Jingliang vs. Daniel Rodriguez Odds
After Friday's UFC 279 main-card shakeup, Li Jingliang and Daniel Rodriguez have new opponents and are now scheduled to fight each other in a 180-pound catchweight affair.
Jingliang originally was slated to fight Tony Ferguson in a welterweight co-headliner. Rodriguez, meanwhile, said goodbye to his bout with Kevin Holland at 180.
Now, the odd-men out tangle in an intriguing clash of styles of sizes.
Let's preview the matchup and look for betting angles.
Tale of the Tape
| Jingliang | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7 | 16-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:20 | 11:14 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/20/1988 | 12/31/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.39 | 8.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.66 | 5.38 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 55% |
| TD Def | 60% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.2 |
"The Leech" got a raw deal out of Saturday's rebookings, moving from a significant -300 favorite (75% implied) against Tony Ferguson to a 43.5% underdog against Rodriguez – a drop of more than 30% in implied win probability.
Moreover, he'll have to face a man who weighed 8.5 pounds heavier than he did on Friday. Rodriguez is the naturally larger man (1 inch taller with a three-inch reach advantage), and that size differential could be more pronounced after their differing weight cuts.
Moreover, Jingliang will have to face a southpaw for the second time in his UFC career (lost to Keita Nakamura in 2015), but without the benefit of an entire training camp against southpaw sparring partners.
Rodriguez puts volume on all his opponents (16.12 strike attempts per minute), while Li is far more calculated in his approach (10.45 attempts per minute). Still, the Leech likely has a power advantage and may possess a wrestling advantage, too (3.18 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 40% accuracy).
If Jingliang mixes his grappling alongside his striking and turns this matchup into a proper MMA fight, he could outperform his underdog pricetag.
And given his power advantage, I'd say he has more finishing equity, with the upside to swing rounds in his favor by landing the most impactful strike, despite a likely deficit in overall output.
Jingliang vs. Rodriguez Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total. However, I would bet Li at odds of +150 (40% implied) or better, at a 2% edge compared to my projection.
Rodriguez by decision (projected +165, listed +170 at FanDuel), stood out in the winning method market. However, there's not enough value for me to place a bet.
Instead, I'll look to bet Jingliang live after Round 1. He tends to start slow and build his way into his fights. And I expect Rodriguez to win Round 1 at a relatively high clip, mainly as Jingliang adjusts to his southpaw stance.
As a result, you may get a live price nearer to +250 or +300 on Jingliang after the opening frame. And I'm happy to wait for the peak.
The Pick: Li Jingliang Live after Round 1
