Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady Odds
The UFC 280 preliminary card concludes with a can't-miss welterweight bout between Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady.
Brady, who's undefeated overall and 4-0 in the UFC, is a small favorite over the battle-tested Muhammad, who hasn't lost in nearly four years while fighting one notable 170-pounder after another.
So which top-10 welterweight has the edge this weekend? I break it down below.
Tale of the Tape
| Muhammad | Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-3 | 15-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:56 | 13:03 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/9/1988 | 11/23/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.31 | 3.91 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.58 | 3.22 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.29 | 3.22 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 60% |
| TD Def | 91% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Saturday's featured prelim could be a sneaky contender for fight of the night honors.
The betting markets consistently underrate Belal Muhammad. He offers excellent pace, pressure and durability, and he has shown improved striking to complement his blanketing wrestling.
Muhammad is much more of a point fighter than a finisher – as evidenced by a 16-2 career record on the scorecards. Still, he's good at swaying the judges with activity.
Brady should have the more significant moments in the fight, but he also has holes in his game. I didn't like his striking defense or reactions in his closely contested win against Michael Chiesa.
I expect Muhammad to have the striking and cardio advantages, but I do have to give Brady the edge in both wrestling and grappling. I'm just not sure how consistently Brady will be able to take his opponent to the mat – likely the deciding point for the entire fight.
I'm also not sure Muhammad will have as much success in the larger cage as he recently had at the UFC Apex – with career-best performances against "Wonderboy Thompson" and Vicente Luque.
Muhammad will have to cover more lateral distance to cut off the cage, which could leave him chasing the explosive Brady around the octagon.
Muhammad vs. Brady Pick
You could take a piece of Muhammad's moneyline at +125 or better. I initially opted for his decision prop (+185 at BetRivers), which I would bet to +170.
I may add on some moneyline, too, depending on where the price goes.
The Pick: Belal Muhammad wins by Decision (+185, 0.25u at BetRivers), bet to +170
