Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds
Two lightweight contenders clash on Saturday's UFC 280 main card with Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot.
Dariush, the UFC's No. 6 contender and the owner of a seven-fight winning streak, meets Gamrot, who's ranked No. 9 and a winner of four straight.
Which title hopeful has the edge at UFC 280? Let's dig in.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-4-1 | 21-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:14 | 11:11 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/6/1989 | 12/11/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.80 | 3.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.58 | 3.19 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.11 | 4.83 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 35% |
| TD Def | 81% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.3 |
This may be my favorite fight on Saturday's card, with the winner potentially set up as the No. 1 contender to face the winner of Makhachev and Oliveira.
Dariush was supposed to fight Makhacev in February but pulled out with an ankle injury and now enters the octagon eight months later as a decent underdog to Gamrot, who scraped by with a close decision – as a similarly priced underdog – over Arman Tsarukyan in June.
Still, Gamrot's run, including his two-division champion status in KSW, is as impressive to me as Dariush's body of work. And Gamrot is slightly younger, significantly faster, and the superior athlete.
I also view him as the far more durable fighter. Dariush has always been a bit chinny, and that issue seems likely to crop up again before the end of his career.
Additionally, Gamrot has as good of cardio as any fighter on the roster. Unfortunately, that ability and his style are better suited for five-round fights, which makes it difficult to bet his moneyline pre-fight when you may find a better live price after Round 1.
Dariush vs. Gamrot Pick
I do like Gamrot's violence props here. And I show value in his knockout, submission, and inside-the-distance (projected +203) props across the market. Bet Gamrot's ITD props down to +223.
And I would consider betting his moneyline straight up at -178 or better.
You can include that in a parlay up to -200 alongside a fighter from the next matchup.
The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot wins Inside the Distance (+250, 0.5u at BetMGM), bet to +223 | Parlay (+110, 0.5u at Draftkings): Mateusz Gamrot (-190) and Petr Yan (-265) | Mateusz Gamrot Live after Round 1
