Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler Odds
One of the year's most anticipated fights is part of the UFC 281 main card with Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler.
The lightweight bout features two of the division's top contenders – and two of its most exciting showmen.
Who emerges victorious in this can't-miss attraction? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Poirier | Chandler | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-7 | 23-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:02 | 7:16 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/19/1989 | 4/24/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.61 | 5.17 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.28 | 4.87 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.44 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 36% |
| TD Def | 64% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Chandler is as dangerous as any fighter on the roster in the first round. He could be competitive with Cthulhu in a five-minute scrap.
Chandler offers excellent wrestling and carries substantial power for the 155-pound division. His weaknesses are physical attributes: cardio and durability.
Chandler's chin is slipping in the latter part of his career. He's always been hittable, but getting dropped twice by Tony Ferguson was a bad look, despite his eventual highlight-reel finish.
Moreover, Chandler's output tends to fall off in the second half of his fights. He's likely due to move up to 170 pounds soon – which may help his gas tank – but Chandler has competed around 155 his entire life (wrestled at 157 in college), and those repeated weight cuts have taken a toll on his body.
He potentially sustained a career-altering beating against Justin Gaethje at MSG last November, when he walked forward with his hands down – while eating shots – in the second half of their fight of the year nominee.
Chandler loves to brawl and put on a show for the fans, but his best path to victory against Poirier lies in his wrestling. Chandler doesn't use his wrestling as proactively as he should; he relies on shooting takedowns when he's wobbled or in her to break pressure.
Still, he has a significant wrestling advantage over Poirier, whose takedown defense (64%) was exposed by Dan Hooker (4 of 7, 6:02 control time) following his loss to Khabib.
Poirier vs. Chandler Pick
Poirier hasn't faced many grapplers, but when he has (Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira), he's found much less success – and tired out far more quickly.
I still feel that Poirier has severe advantages in cardio and durability against Chandler, though his opponent can crack any chin on the planet.
Still, Poirier is a bit of a slow starter – while Chandler typically starts hot – so I expect "The Diamond" to be trying to stage a comeback after the opening minutes.
If Chandler does decide to wrestle, he may be able to bank two rounds against Poirier before trying to survive the final frame. Or perhaps the threat of the takedown creates an opening for his booming overhand.
As a result, I expect to find a superior price on Poirier live after Round 1. And I'll keep a close eye on the live markets.
From a pre-fight perspective, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total. And I only show slight value on Poirier to win by KO/TKO (projected +152, listed +163 at BetRivers).
In terms of my read, Poirier wins inside the distance (projected +117, listed +100 at DraftKings) was how I expected to play the fight, but there's no value in the number.
Instead, I'll bet on the cardio advantage – and back Poirier to win in Round 2 (+600 at BetRivers) or Round 3 (+1200 at BetWynn) while waiting for a live entry.
The Picks: Dustin Poirier wins in Round 2 (+600, 0.1u at BetRivers) | Poirier wins in Round 3 (+1200, 0.1u at BetRivers) | Poirier Live after Round 1
