UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for All 12 Fights

The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday with a 12-fight card for UFC 282, highlighted by a light-heavyweight title bout between Magomed Ankalaev and Jan Blachowicz.

The preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass before simulcasting on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET via ESPN+ pay-per-view.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 282 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

UFC 282 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 282 Odds

Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow

Crowdsourced Projections: Cameron Saaiman (72.2%)

Youthful-looking Cameron Saaiman scored an impressive victory as a +220 underdog on Contender Series in August and will make his UFC debut as a significant favorite against the undefeated Steven Koslow, a regional debutant with six first-round finishes.

Koslow is replacing Ronnie Lawrence (who was -250 against Saaiman) on a week's notice.

Admittedly, I don't know much about Steven Koslow, but I have seen holes in Saaiman's defensive grappling and suspect that the sizable underdog may be able to win the fight with top control or a submission.

It's challenging to lay a significant price on a bantamweight fight (48.4% finish rate) to end inside the distance, and I don't see value in the total (projected -210, listed -250 to end inside the distance).

I project slight value on Koslow's moneyline (projected +260) and would play that number small to about +285. Alternatively – or additionally – you could poke his submission prop (projected +499, listed +700 at DraftKings).

Bets

• Steven Koslow (+295, 0.25 units at DraftKings)
• Steven Koslow wins by Submission (+700, 0.1u at DraftKings)

Vinicius Salvador vs. Daniel da Silva

Crowdsourced Projections: Vinicius Salvador (69%)

(Editor's note: This fight was canceled after Daniel da Silva weighed in heavy and was pulled from this matchup with Vinicius Salvador.)

The average flyweight finish rate (43.8%) doesn't apply to da Silva, who has never seen the third round and has been past the six-minute mark only once in his 15-fight professional career.

FanDuel lined this flyweight bout as high as -1000 (90.9% implied) to end inside the distance. I couldn't quite get there with my projection (81.9%, -453 implied) and show value on the goes-to decision prop (+570 at FanDuel; +450 best price elsewhere) or Overs, if anything.

Similarly, I see slight value on Salvador by decision (projected +866, listed +1000), but I would instead pass than place those longshot bets requiring 15 minutes of action; da Silva's sustainability is both an outlier and challenging to quantify.

Look to take Salvador at a better live price after Round 1. Otherwise, you can pass on betting on this fight.

Bets

• Vinicius Salvador live after Round 1

T.J. Brown vs. Erik Silva

Crowdsourced Projections: Erik Silva (55.3%)

After securing a contract via first-round submission on Contender Series in August, Erik Silva will make his UFC debut against T.J. Brown, a Glory MMA product who had to scramble to replace his corner following James Krause's suspension.

Silva opened around -165 for this matchup, but the line has moved closer to a pick'em price. Brown has faced a more proven slate of competition, and he may have the wrestling advantage in the matchup.

Still, Silva is a far more dangerous man on the feet. If he can deny takedowns or survive until Brown eventually tires out, Silva should find opportunities to close the show or steal the scorecards late. 

Bet Silva's moneyline to -115 and consider playing either his submission prop (projected +262, listed +320 at BetRivers) or his finish prop (projected +158, listed +175 at BetMGM) for a boosted payout.

Bets

• Erik Silva (-110, 0.5u at DraftKings)

Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Crowdsourced Projections: Billy Quarantillo (60.9%)

Alexander Hernandez, who struggled with cardio as a lightweight, has moved down to featherweight, where he should be the much more physically imposing fighter against Billy Quarantillo, who offers excellent cardio and durability, but doesn't pack a ton of power for the division.

Hernandez could seemingly compete with any lightweight on the planet for five minutes, but he's a far better hammer than a nail, and he tends to wilt the moment he faces adversity.

While Quarantillo seems like the perfect type of opponent to withstand and overcome an early finisher archetype, I expect Hernandez to bully Quarantillo – if not finish him – when both men are fresh.

Quarantillo tends to block punches with his face (40% striking defense) or give up takedowns (57%), and I expect Hernandez to find the chin and get a takedown and get on top of Quarantillo within the opening frame. And perhaps the power/strength advantage is enough to finish those early opportunities at a lower weight class.

Still, if Hernandez struggled with stamina and sustainability at 155, cutting an additional 10 pounds won't help his cause. And I'd expect Quarantillo to take over the minute-winning as the fight drags on.

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total. And Quarantillo by decision (projected +174, listed +225 at DraftKings) is the only route I'd go in the winning method market.

However, I expect to find a better live price on Quarantillo after Round 1. And that seems like the ideal entry point to bet on this fight.

Bets

• Billy Quarantillo Live after Round 1

Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

Crowdsourced Projections: Joaquin Buckley (56.9%)

I'm surprised to see both the under and inside-the-distance props so heavily juiced for this middleweight scrap; both Joaquin Buckley and Chris Curtis are more welterweight in statute, and neither cuts a ton of weight to make 185.

Curtis is an excellent pocket boxer who is generally conscious of minute-winning and where he stands in his fight. He doesn't load up for power on any individual shot but mixes strikes to the head and body and wears down opponents with attritional damage.

Buckley is the more powerful but less accurate striker (32%). He should land the more impactful shots – and create more damage with each successful strike relative to Curtis. Still, I expect "Action Man" to move forward, applying more pressure and landing more volume with a more measured game plan.

While Buckley is flashy – and he still owns one of the coolest knockouts in the history of combat sports – I would rate his power closer to average than elite for the middleweight division.

And while Buckley may be the more well-rounded fighter, I doubt he'll be able to change levels and take Curtis (100% takedown defense) down to the mat.

Of the two fighters, I view Curtis as the more durable man, so I'm not sure that Buckley should be favored because of his perceived finishing upside.

I'll back Curtis on the moneyline at a small edge at +140 or better but see a significantly larger edge on the fight to go to a decision (projected +115, listed +178 at FanDuel) or Curtis to win by decision (projected +322, listed +480 at Rivers).

The distance or decision prop should be much closer to the welterweight decision average (47.2%) than the middleweight average (40.4%).

Bets

• Fight goes to Decision (+178, 0.75u at FanDuel)
• Chris Curtis (+145, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• Chris Curtis wins by Decision (+475, 0.1u at Rivers)

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

Crowdsourced Projections: Edmen Shahbazyan (74.3%)

"The Golden Boy" Edmen Shahbazyan will return to the octagon on Saturday after more than a one-year layoff.

Shahbazyan had lost three consecutive bouts from August 2020 to November 2021, derailing a hype train that gained steam after an 11-0 start to his professional career.

Shahbazyan changed camps since his last fight, now working out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, and retains massive potential at 25 years old, with a wealth of fighting experience already under his belt.

He will be the taller fighter in the cage (6-inch height advantage), and he may be the more prominent athlete, but Dalcha Lungiambula will carry a two-inch reach advantage and likely more power.

Both fighters have shown significant cardio concerns after about seven or eight minutes in previous bouts. I don't trust either fighter in general, but I would give more benefit of the doubt to the Shahbazyan side; perhaps the camp change helped to improve his cardio base and broad skill set, and he's in his physical prime (age 25) with massive potential, whereas Lungiambula (35) is nearing the end of his career and has limited upside.

Technically, Shahbazyan is the better fighter everywhere and likely has Lungiambula covered in this matchup skill for skill (aside from raw power). Still, I don't project value on this bout from any perspective, and I'll pass on betting on this fight.

Shahbazyan currently sits at a break-even price compared to projections, but you can play him in a straight bet at -255 or better.

Bets

• Pass

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus

Crowdsourced Projections: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (63.5%)

I initially considered backing a heavyweight over or distance prop at plus money.

Still, it's difficult to know where Chris Daukaus is mentally following a pair of violent knockout losses to Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes within the past year. And Jairzinho Rozenstruik is one of the most powerful fighters on the planet.

When Rozenstruik's opponents refuse to engage, his fights turn into staring contests. Perhaps Daukaus will be hesitant to enter the pocket early after those recent losses, particularly with a two-inch reach discrepancy.

Daukaus likely has a speed advantage and possesses all of the grappling upside. Still, he hasn't completed a takedown in the UFC, and Rozenstruik's takedown defense (75%) has improved over the years.

Suppose he can't get this fight to the mat. In that case, Daukaus will be at a significant power disadvantage, and one massive strike from Rozenstruik – in any round – could be enough to undo whatever volume advantage Daukaus might be able to accumulate with his speed.

Prop Squad: Fade Big UFC 282 Favorite With This +2100 BetRead now

Rozenstruik possesses more finishing upside in this fight, and it's hard to say that Daukaus is the likelier minute-winner, with one career victory beyond the eight-minute mark.

Like with Shahbazyan in the last fight, I lean to Rozenstruik as the pick, but I don't see betting value in any market – except for the goes-to decision prop (projected +388, listed +420 at FanDuel) at one book, which would mostly rely upon a 15-minute staring contest.

Typically, I'd want something closer to +441 (18.5% implied) to place that bet at a 2% edge compared to my number.

And I'm waiting for -160 or better on Rozenstruik.

I'm tempted to toss Rozenztruik and Shahbazyan into a small degen parlay; otherwise, these two fights are a solid window for refreshments before the main card.

Bets

• Pass

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin

Crowdsourced Projections: Raul Rosas Jr. (63.8%)

Young 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. will make his official UFC debut on Saturday after earning a contract with a dominant effort on the Contender Series in September.

Rosas has shown excellent grappling and pressure, especially for a prospect his age. Still, he is a long way away from either his physical or technical prime, and Jay Perrin is far from a pushover.

Despite an 0-2 record in the UFC (and a loss on Contender Series), Perrin was competitive in each bout and had an argument for winning two of those fights. Perrin is willing to wrestle (more than two takedown attempts per round) and has fun scrambling ability.

Moreover, I view him as a better striker than Rosas and expect him to win extended striking exchanges.

Ironically, I bet Perrin in his last fight due to an anticipated grappling advantage; he didn't wrestle until late in the second round. For the Rosas fight, I'd prefer Perrin try to deny takedowns or use scrambles to return to his feet, where he can win the striking. Yet I'm expecting him to play into Rosas' hands and grapple as often as possible.

Perrin is a more significant underdog than Rosas' Contender Series opponent, yet he's a far stiffer test for this debutant teenager.

I projected Perrin's moneyline at +176 (36.2% implied) and would bet him down to around +192 (34.2% implied) at a 2% edge.

Moreover, you can poke his decision prop (projected +360, listed +420 at FanDuel).

Bets

• Jay Perrin (+200, 0.5u at DraftKings)
• Jay Perrin wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u at FanDuel)

Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

Crowdsourced Projections: Ilia Topuria (61%)

Saturday's main-card opener is my most anticipated fight at UFC 282 – both from a betting and a viewing perspective.

Either or both Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria could be future title challengers or champions, and Saturday's contest should go a long way toward determining their respective ceilings within the featherweight division.

Mitchell is officially 5-0 under the UFC banner, though he did lose to Brad Katona (via submission) on The Ultimate Fighter. He has a highly effective style, smothering opponents with pressure and top control, where he can kill the clock (6.5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 52% accuracy) and stay out of danger.

Mitchell's three most recent wins – against Edson Barboza (four takedowns, 11:28 control time), Andre Fili (seven takedowns, 10:12 control time) and Charles Rosa (five takedowns, 12:51 control time) – are a trio of masterclasses in imposing your will on your opponent. "Thug Nasty" is extremely difficult to break away from.

Mitchell even scored a knockdown against Barboza – the takedown threat is so overwhelming – but his striking is still underwhelming as a whole, and some older fights point to potential trouble when he eventually goes up against another elite grappler.

Enter Topuria, an undefeated Spanish-Georgian prospect with potentially world-class striking and grappling. Mitchell has faced strikers of Topuria's caliber – but never a grappler at his level nor an opponent with such a developed blend of both skillsets.

And when Mitchell has faced competent grapplers, he's lost grappling exchanges.

Mitchell may be the superior wrestler in the matchup with Topuria, and if he can get on top of Topuria, perhaps he can consolidate position and maintain pressure, as he's been able to do against lesser opponents. Still, I view that as his only path to victory. And it requires multiple takedowns.

Even if Mitchell is the superior wrestler, I view Topuria as the better grappler overall. I would expect him to be able to either deny takedowns or scramble and return to his feet if he's put on his back.

And if Mitchell is forced to strike at a distance for extended stretches of this fight, he will get dominated or finished.

It's challenging to envision Mitchell finishing the fight unless Topuria gasses out completely. Conversely, Topuria should be the more dangerous fighter for the duration. Even if Mitchell can control positions, he may not land substantial damage; an out-wrestled Topuria can still swing rounds with minimal striking exchanges.

Topuria has more ways to win the fight. Mitchell essentially needs a clean 15-minute grappling-based decision in which Topuria's defensive wrestling doesn't pass the test, and that seems like a reasonably improbable result.

I projected Topuria as a -156 favorite, and I would bet his moneyline to a break-even price.

I also show slight value on his submission prop (projected +556, listed +650 at BetRivers) or inside the distance prop (projected +153, listed +180 at DraftKings).

Moreover, I see slight value in the fight to end inside the distance (projected -123, listed -115 at BetRivers), but most of that edge is tied to Topuria's finish prop.

Bets

• Ilia Topuria (-140, Risk 1u at DraftKings)
• Ilia Topuria wins Inside the Distance (+180, 0.2u)

Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis

Crowdsourced Projections: Dricus Du Plessis (65.8%)

Dricus du Plessis opened closer to a -125 favorite (55.6% implied) in this matchup but has moved as much as 10% in implied probability in the past few weeks.

While I still project slight value on the du Plessis side, most of the edge has been sucked out of the line. And I wouldn't necessarily look to play him (for a full bet) past -175.

Till seems to have the hands to catch du Plessis rushing in recklessly. The South African native does his best work blitzing at opponents, and if Till can successfully step back and counter those rushes, he could find an opening for his big left hand.

He'll need to mind the takedown attempts from du Plessis too. Dricus hasn't had a ton of success with his shots (2 for 4 against Trevin Giles, 0 for 7 against Brad Tavares) or grappling opponents in the UFC (2:54 of control time across three fights), but he does well to let his hands go on the way in before switching to a takedown, mixing his striking together well with his grappling.

Du Plessis has an unorthodox style, and his opponents seem to have difficulty timing him early in the fight. He also carries substantial power for the division and should be the more prominent man in the cage (1-inch taller, two-inch reach advantage).

Till's power is likely overrated too. It never carried to middleweight. His last knockout came in 2017 (at welterweight against Cowboy Cerrone); aside from that, he has one other finish at the UFC level (in his 2015 debut).

Moreover, Till is a low-volume striker who will likely lose the bout on volume alone (12.8 to 4.9 strike attempts per minute, in favor of du Plessis) unless he finds a finish or pushes a pace that we haven't seen before.

Du Plessis carries just as much – if not more power – chucks substantially more volume and possesses all the grappling upside. Aside from name recognition, it's difficult to see where Till has an advantage in this fight.

And unless he catches du Plessis rushing in, I have difficulty envisioning Till's path to victory.

I hate to bet into a moneyline after such substantial movement, but I still see enough of an edge to justify a small wager on du Plessis up to -185.

Depending upon the book, I would recommend a wager on du Plessis by decision at around +352 or better (projected +333). That minute-winning edge via grappling and striking output is substantial enough to make Du Plessis a big favorite assuming the fight hits the scorecards.

Because it's the last PPV card of the year, I'll toss du Plessis into a small parlay with Edmen Shahbazyan and Jairzinho Rozenstruik – two other favorites I show around break-even prices and which I want a bit of action tied to for Saturday.

If either of the earlier favorites loses – and kills our parlay before the main card – I may consider firing on du Plessis straight; otherwise, we'll ride the plus money ticket.

Bets

• Dricus Du Plessis wins by Decision (+380, 0.2u at BetRivers)
• Parlay (+230, 0.25u at DraftKings): Edmen Shahbazyan (-295), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-175), Dricus du Plessis (-175)

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono

Crowdsourced Projections: Santiago Ponzinibbio (63.2%)

Alex Morono claimed Robbie Lawler's main-card spot on short notice and will see the toughest test of his career against the recently ranked Santiago Ponzinibbio.

"The Great White" enters on a four-fight winning streak against the aging Argentine, who has dropped three of his past four fights, albeit to top-level competition.

Prime for prime, Ponzinibbio is the clear side in this matchup, especially at this price point. Still, Ponzinibbio is a long way off from his physical peak, squeaking out one close decision win (in comeback fashion) since returning from a two-year layoff.

The grappling seems like a wash; either man can mix in takedowns against the right opponent, though Ponzinibbio is slightly more proactively about mixing in shots.

I expect to see a striker vs. striker battle in which Ponzinibbio carries more power and lands the more immediately impactful strikes. In contrast, Morono should land more volume and spend most of the fight on his bike, circling Ponzinibbio.

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. Still, I do see value in the Overs or the fight to reach a decision prop (projected -163, listed -135) or on either fighter to win by decision (projected +288 Morono, +188 Ponzinibbio; listed +300 and +195, respectively).

Given the power discrepancy, I'd instead tie anything decision related to the Morono side; Ponznibbio tends to stand in the center of the octagon and invite wars, which doesn't correlate as well with either the Over or his decision prop. Still, there is a distinct possibility that Morono squeaks by another (seemingly better opponent) by taking a competitive bout on the scorecards.

I'll take a slight poke at Morono's decision prop. Still, the edge is minuscule, and I can't justify anything more than a minimal investment.

Bets

• Alex Morono wins by Decision (+300, 0.1u at DraftKings)

Jared Gordon vs. Paddy Pimblett

Crowdsourced Projections: Paddy Pimblett (64.5%)

Paddy Pimblett is the better athlete in this matchup with Jared Gordon, who seems better suited for featherweight than lightweight. Pimblett is an inch taller and owns a five-inch reach advantage. He's also more explosive and brings far more tenacity to the octagon.

Still, I view Gordon as the better overall fighter. He's faced and defeated a higher level of competition, has shown himself to be the superior striker, and is a highly proven grappler – both offensively and defensively – who may give Pimblett a taste of his own medicine.

In a limited UFC sample, Pimblett has been wobbled twice on the feet and gotten out scrambled by Kazula Vargas, a boxer.

Still, he's rallied to finish each fight and earned an appropriate step up in competition. But when Pimblett has faced capable grapplers, he's faltered. And I'm not confident that he's the better wrestler than Gordon, even when both men are fresh.

As the fight wears on, the athleticism gap should close. I favor Gordon's cardio and determination in the late stages of a fight. And I'm not confident that Pimblett is any more durable than Gordon; both fighters have taken their lumps in the past, but neither carries significant power, and I'd be surprised to see a striking-based knockout materialize.

Gordon seems like the first opponent in a while who can truly stand up to Pimblett's physicality in the grappling realm, and I expect "Flash" to get the better positions by the end of the fight. Jordan Leavitt didn't have the physical strength to compete, but Gordon should, and you're getting a very similar price here.

I projected Gordon as a +182 underdog, and I'll bet on skill over athleticism and hype at a juicy number, down to about +190.

Moreover, I'll sprinkle his decision prop (projected +334, listed +460 at FanDuel)

Bets

• Jared Gordon (+200, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Jared Gordon wins by Decision (+460, 0.1u at FanDuel)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Crowdsourced Projections: Magomed Ankalaev (71.6%)

Make sure to check out my full fight preview for additional analysis of Saturday's main event, including a statistical comparison.

In short, Magomed Ankalev is the more skilled fighter – and likely the better athlete, too – but he's typically underwhelmed as a large favorite, showing a lack of enthusiasm or urgency toward winning minutes or banking rounds in his favor.

I would have to bet Blachowicz at this price in a pure standup fight. But if Ankalaev decides to proactively wrestle – for once – he may look like a dominant favorite.

Blachowicz is on one of the best underdogs runs in the history of the sport, with nine of his past 10 wins coming at plus money; the betting markets consistently underrate the former champion.

Conversely, Ankalaev has never closed below a -200 favorite in the UFC. Yet his performances have consistently underwhelmed, despite his obvious skill set.

In this matchup, I projected Ankalaev as a 71.6% favorite (-252 implied odds), and I see slight value on the underdog moneyline (+265 at DraftKings). However, I need something closer to +280 to back Blachowicz in this matchup.

Instead, I'd prefer to bet the Over or the Goes to the Distance prop (projected 44%, +129 implied) compared to market odds as high as +154 (FanDuel).

You can find the Over 3.5 rounds at plus money – and avoid any late fight shenanigans as we have seen in recent title bouts with a desperate fighter trailing.

And in the winning method market, consider betting Ankalaev by decision (projected +210, listed +240 at FanDuel) or Blachowicz by KO/TKO (projected +604, listed +600 at BetRivers).

Bets

• Over 3.5 Rounds (+100, 0.5u at Caesars) 

Zerillo's UFC 282 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

• Buckley/Curtis, Fight goes to Decision (+178, 0.75 units at FanDuel)
• Chris Curtis wins by Decision (+475, 0.1u at BetRivers)
• Jay Perrin wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Dricus du Plessis wins by Decision (+380, 0.2u at Rivers)
• Alex Morono wins by Decision (+300, 0.1u at DraftKings)
• Jared Gordon wins by Decision (+460, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Ankalaev/Blachowicz, Over 3.5 Rounds (+100, 0.5u at Caesars)

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

• Steven Koslow wins by Submission (+700, 0.1u at DraftKings)
• Ilia Topuria wins Inside the Distance (+180, 0.2u)

Moneylines

• Steven Koslow (+295, 0.25 units at DraftKings)
• Erik Silva (-110, 0.5u at DraftKings)
• Chris Curtis (+145, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• Jay Perrin (+200, 0.5u at DraftKings)
• Ilia Topuria (-140, Risk 1u at DraftKings)
• Jared Gordon (+200, 0.5u at Caesars)

Parlays

• Parlay (+230, 0.25u at DraftKings): Edmen Shahbazyan (-295), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-175), Dricus Du Plessis (-175)

Live Betting Notes

• Billy Quarantillo Live after Round 1