Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez Odds
Featherweights close out the UFC 282 early prelims on Saturday when Billy Quarantillo takes on Alexander Hernandez.
Quarantillo has alternated wins and losses over his past four fights as he enters a matchup with Hernandez, whose done the same win-one-lose-one dance over his last eight fights.
Can Quarantillo get back on track as he welcomes former lightweight Hernandez to the 145-pound division?
Let's dive in below.
Tale of the Tape
| Quarantillo | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:30 | 8:09 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/8/1988 | 10/1/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.74 | 3.97 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.80 | 3.94 |
| SS Defense | 40% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| TD Acc | 21% | 33% |
| TD Def | 57% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Hernandez, who struggled with cardio as a lightweight, has moved down to featherweight, where he should be the much more physically imposing fighter against Quarantillo, who offers excellent cardio and durability, but doesn't pack a ton of power for the division.
Hernandez could seemingly compete with any lightweight on the planet for five minutes, but he's a far better hammer than a nail, and he tends to wilt the moment he faces adversity.
While Quarantillo seems like the perfect type of opponent to withstand and overcome an early finisher archetype, I expect Hernandez to bully Quarantillo – if not finish him – when both men are fresh.
Quarantillo tends to block punches with his face (40% striking defense) or give up takedowns (57%), and I expect Hernandez to find the chin and get a takedown and get on top of Quarantillo within the opening frame.
And perhaps the power/strength advantage is enough to finish those early opportunities at a lower weight class.
Still, if Hernandez struggled with stamina and sustainability at 155, cutting an additional 10 pounds won't help his cause. And I'd expect Quarantillo to take over the minute-winning as the fight drags on.
Quarantillo vs. Hernandez Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total.
Quarantillo by decision (projected +174, listed +225 at DraftKings) is the only route I'd go in the winning method market.
However, I expect to find a better live price on Quarantillo after Round 1. And that seems like the ideal entry point to bet on this fight.
The Pick: Billy Quarantillo Live after Round 1
