Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis Odds
Dricus du Plessis goes for his sixth straight victory when he meets Darren Till on Saturday at UFC 282.
The pay-per-view main-card bout is Till's first since September 2021, when he fell to 1-4 over a five-fight span with a submission loss to Derek Brunson.
Will Till get back on track after a long layoff, or will du Plessis continue his ascent up the 185-pound ladder?
Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Till | du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4-1 | 17-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:41 | 8:21 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/24/1992 | 1/14/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.26 | 6.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.02 | 4.23 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 18% |
| TD Def | 78% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Du Plessis opened closer to a -125 favorite (55.6% implied) in this matchup but has moved as much as 10% in implied probability in the past few weeks.
While I still project slight value on the du Plessis side, most of the edge has been sucked out of the line. And I wouldn't necessarily look to play him (for a full bet) past -175.
Till seems to have the hands to catch du Plessis rushing in recklessly. The South African native does his best work blitzing at opponents, and if Till can successfully step back and counter those rushes, he could find an opening for his big left hand.
He'll need to mind the takedown attempts from du Plessis too. Dricus hasn't had a ton of success with his shots (2 for 4 against Trevin Giles, 0 for 7 against Brad Tavares) or grappling opponents in the UFC (2:54 of control time across three fights), but he does well to let his hands go on the way in before switching to a takedown, mixing his striking together well with his grappling.
Du Plessis has an unorthodox style, and his opponents seem to have difficulty timing him early in the fight. He also carries substantial power for the division and should be the more prominent man in the cage (1-inch taller, two-inch reach advantage).
Till's power is likely overrated too. It never carried to middleweight. His last knockout came in 2017 (at welterweight against Cowboy Cerrone); aside from that, he has one other finish at the UFC level (in his 2015 debut).
Moreover, Till is a low-volume striker who will likely lose the bout on volume alone (12.8 to 4.9 strike attempts per minute, in favor of du Plessis) unless he finds a finish or pushes a pace that we haven't seen before.
Du Plessis carries just as much – if not more power – chucks substantially more volume and possesses all the grappling upside. Aside from name recognition, it's difficult to see where Till has an advantage in this fight.
And unless he catches du Plessis rushing in, I have difficulty envisioning Till's path to victory.
I hate to bet into a moneyline after such substantial movement, but I still see enough of an edge to justify a small wager on du Plessis up to -185.
Till vs. du Plessis Pick
Depending upon the book, I would recommend a wager on du Plessis by decision at around +352 or better (projected +333). That minute-winning edge via grappling and striking output is substantial enough to make Du Plessis a big favorite assuming the fight hits the scorecards.
Because it's the last PPV card of the year, I'll toss du Plessis into a small parlay with Edmen Shahbazyan and Jairzinho Rozenstruik – two other favorites I show around break-even prices and which I want a bit of action tied to for Saturday.
If either of the earlier favorites loses – and kills our parlay before the main card – I may consider firing on du Plessis straight; otherwise, we'll ride the plus money ticket.
The Pick: Du Plessis wins by Decision (+380, 0.2u at BetRivers) | Parlay (+230, 0.25u at DraftKings) of Edmen Shahbazyan (-295), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-175), Dricus du Plessis (-175)
