Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus Odds
Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Chris Daukaus each look to end a two-fight skid when they meet on Saturday at UFC 282.
The heavyweight clash is part of the event's preliminary card.
Is there value to be found in this clash? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Rozenstruik | Daukaus | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 12-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:47 | 3:44 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 242 lbs. | 250 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/17/1988 | 9/25/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.80 | 6.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.24 | 4.02 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 75% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
I initially considered backing a heavyweight over or distance prop at plus money.
Still, it's difficult to know where Daukaus is mentally following a pair of violent knockout losses to Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes within the past year. And Rozenstruik is one of the most powerful fighters on the planet.
When Rozenstruik's opponents refuse to engage, his fights turn into staring contests. Perhaps Daukaus will be hesitant to enter the pocket early after those recent losses, particularly with a two-inch reach discrepancy.
Daukaus likely has a speed advantage and possesses all of the grappling upside. Still, he hasn't completed a takedown in the UFC, and Rozenstruik's takedown defense (75%) has improved over the years.
Suppose he can't get this fight to the mat. In that case, Daukaus will be at a significant power disadvantage, and one massive strike from Rozenstruik – in any round – could be enough to undo whatever volume advantage Daukaus might be able to accumulate with his speed.
Rozenstruik possesses more finishing upside in this fight, and it's hard to say that Daukaus is the likelier minute-winner, with one career victory beyond the eight-minute mark.
Rozenstruik vs. Daukaus Pick
I lean to Rozenstruik as the pick, but I don't see betting value in any market – except for the goes-to decision prop (projected +388, listed +420 at FanDuel) at one book, which would mostly rely upon a 15-minute staring contest.
Typically, I'd want something closer to +441 (18.5% implied) to place that bet at a 2% edge compared to my number.
And I'm waiting for -160 or better on Rozenstruik.
I'm tempted to toss Rozenztruik and Shahbazyan into a small degen parlay; otherwise, these two fights are a solid window for refreshments before the main card.
The Pick: Pass
