The final pay-per-view event of the year takes place Saturday with UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN2/ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET), the PPV main card (10 p.m. ET) concludes with Jan Błachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant light-heavyweight title.
However, the title fight is just one of 12 bouts on a deep fight card that also includes lightweights Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon in the co-headliner.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks from Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Billy Ward: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Normally, I’m very hesitant to lay more than two-to-one odds in MMA fights. The variance is high, and weird things can happen to heavy favorites. On the other hand, hot prospects such as Raul Rosas Jr. normally see odds a lot longer than this.
Rosas is making history on Saturday as the youngest fighter in UFC history, shortly removed from his win on the Contender Series while still just 17. The UFC clearly wants to promote Rosas here, as his age (now 18) has garnered a fair amount of publicity.
Prospects such as Rosas are usually given winnable matchups for their first few UFC fights, and this one is no different. He’s fighting Jay Perrin, who’s 0-2 in the UFC and previously lost a Contender Series bout.
More importantly, Perrin is a grappler, which plays well to the strength of Rosas.
This line would also be a lot longer if the betting public knew how good Rosas’ opponent in his Contender Series bout is. He dominated Mando Gutierrez, who’s himself a high-level grappler. Shortly after that fight, I watched Mando submit significantly larger black belts in a grappling tournament – and Rosas made him look like a white belt.
Rosas’ striking is fairly undeveloped, and he’s got a ton of growing to do physically, so there will be times to fade him. UFC 282 isn’t it, though, and this line should be at least -300.
The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. (-240 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
Staff Writer at The Action Network
UFC 282's main-card opener is my most anticipated fight on Saturday – both from a betting and a viewing perspective.
Either or both Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria could be future title challengers or champions, and Saturday's contest should go a long way toward determining their respective ceilings within the featherweight division.
Mitchell's three most recent wins – against Edson Barboza, Andre Fili and Charles Rosa – are a trio of masterclasses in imposing your will on your opponent. Mitchell even scored a knockdown against Barboza. However, his striking is still underwhelming as a whole, and some older fights point to potential trouble when he eventually goes up against another elite grappler.
Enter Topuria, an undefeated Spanish-Georgian prospect with potentially world-class striking and grappling.
Mitchell may be the superior wrestler in the matchup, and if he can get on top of Topuria, perhaps he can consolidate position and maintain pressure, as he's been able to do against lesser opponents. Still, I view that as his only path to victory. And it requires multiple takedowns.
Even if Mitchell is the superior wrestler, I view Topuria as the better grappler overall.
It's challenging to envision Mitchell finishing the fight unless Topuria gasses out completely. Conversely, Topuria should be the more dangerous fighter for the duration. Even if Mitchell can control positions, he may not land substantial damage; an out-wrestled Topuria can still swing rounds with minimal striking exchanges.
Topuria has more ways to win the fight. Mitchell essentially needs a clean 15-minute grappling-based decision in which Topuria's defensive wrestling doesn't pass the test, and that seems like a reasonably improbable result.
I projected Topuria as a -156 favorite, and I would bet it to that price.
The Pick: Ilia Topuria (-140, Risk 1u at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez
Senior Editor at The Action Network
I could see either guy winning this fight, and either victory would likely be the result of a stoppage.
So, betting on Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez to end inside the distance is about as straightforward of a play as I can imagine.
And getting close to even money on this wager? Love it, love it.
Although Hernandez looked absolutely phenomenal on the scale as he weighed in for UFC 282, I'm not sure this move down to 145 pounds is a wise one. The 30-year-old has shown a suspect chin in the past, and cutting 10 pounds of weight is unlikely to provide any additional cushioning for his noggin.
Additionally, Hernandez doesn't always react well to pressure. And against a foot-on-his-gas type of fighter such as Quarantillo, he's going to get it nonstop. That's one reason I'm also betting Quarantillo straight up (-165) and to win in Round 3 (+1100).
But my favorite bet of the bunch is this fight to end inside the distance. Either Hernandez comes out strong and puts a stamp on his new weight class with a vintage performance – or Quarantillo likely takes over and forces Hernandez to wilt with relentless pressure within 15 minutes.
And sure, there's a chance that Hernandez, who was already a large 155-pounder, could use his super-sized 145-pound frame to ground and hold down Quarantillo. But Billy Q is no slouch on the mat, and I think he's got the craftiness to escape if needed to get back to work on his feet.
No matter which way this fight plays out, I think we've got at least a 65% chance of getting a stoppage. So I'm happy betting this to -140 (58.3%), a threshold that still provides plenty of value.
Pick: Quarantillo-Hernandez doesn't go to decision (-108) |
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