UFC 283 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for All 15 Fights

Ahead of the UFC's first pay-per-view event of 2023, we look at the UFC 283 odds and betting angles for all 15 fights.

The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass before simulcasting on ABC and ESPN beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET via ESPN+ pay-per-view.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 283 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 15 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

UFC 283 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 283 Odds

Saimon Oliveira vs. Daniel Marcos

Crowdsourced Projections: Saimon Oliveira (57.8%)

While I don't see value on either side of the moneyline for Saturday's prelim opener, I do see slight value both on a total and on a wager in the winning method market (both of which correlate to one another).

Oliveira is a dynamic striker who possesses all of the grappling upside – and the majority of finishing upside in this matchup.

Marcos is the superior technician, and I view him as the likelier minute winner in an extended kickboxing affair; however, Oliveira's grappling – particularly his choke game – justifies his favoritism.

I project the bout to go the distance 54% of the time (-118 implied), so you can bet the Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) or play the fight to go to a decision (+110 at DraftKings).

Additionally, I see value in Marcos's decision prop (projected +295, listed +450 at DraftKings). However, that's more a piece for round robins; I'm not inclined to bet against Brazilians getting the nod at home in what likely amounts to and what I expect to be a competitive affair.

Bets

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.5 units at WynnBET)

Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn

Crowdsourced Projections: Josiane Nunes (81%)

Fairn has appeared rather unimpressive through two UFC bouts – a pair of first-round finishes to top-caliber competition in Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer – and she's returning from a nearly three-year layoff at age 36 against a young and dangerous power puncher in Josaine Nunes.

When there is at least a 10-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 71.3% of the time (264-106) at average odds closer to -149, or 59.8%. And that age difference – and speed advantage – is considerably more noticeable in the lighter weight classes.

Nunes, who has struggled to make 135 pounds and will compete at 145 on Saturday, is at a severe size disadvantage in most of her fights and will cede five inches of reach and six inches of height to Fairn.

After getting dominated on the mat in her first two UFC bouts, Fairn would prefer to strike on Saturday, and both the length and potentially the volume may be in her favor.

Still, Nunes carries extreme power, and her overhand is seemingly one of the most potent weapons, pound for pound, in the UFC.

Given her weight class, Nunes needs only a couple of significant connections in each round to swing the optics in her favor, so even though Fairn may land more volume over 15 minutes, she has a massive power discrepancy to overcome.

This has all the makings of a fight in which – if Zairn survives – she looks like value over 15 minutes and then loses a close or questionable decision to the hometown fighter.

As a result, I'm not rushing to the window to take Fairn, even at four to one. Nunes may not deserve this much respect, given her limited skillset with one superlative attribute.

There are too many red flags, given her age, layoff and lack of real success at the UFC level, despite the level of competition.

While I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total, I should mention Fairn by decision (projected +711, listed +850 at BetRivers) as a potential value play relative to her moneyline price.

Still, as I said in the opening fight, I'm not inclined to bet against Brazilian fighters getting decisions in Brazil.

Bets

• Pass

Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby

Crowdsourced Projections: Warlley Alves (58.8%)

Alves is the first side that my projections like from a moneyline perspective for Saturday, and he's the reasonably obvious betting side from a pre-fight perspective based on his fighting style.

Despite a 4-2 career record in decisions, Alves always starts hot and fades late, and Dalby has a clear cardio advantage in this matchup.

Still, stamina may be Dalby's only advantage since Alves likely has him covered skill for skill. If you're looking to take Dalby, wait to bet him live after Round 1, when you will almost certainly get a better price if he has survived the early onslaught.

No matter the level of opponent, Dalby has kept his UFC bouts competitive, and I expect him to have success later in the fight, but if I'm laying anything pre-fight, it would have to be on Alves.

My projections view the fight as a coinflip if it goes to the scorecards while Alves possesses the vast majority of the finishing upside.

Depending upon the book, there is value on Dalby by decision (projected +273. listed +300 at DraftKings).

Still, that's another spot on the prelims where you'd be betting against the crowd favorite in – at best – a close and competitive affair.

I'll flat-risk Alves pre-fight (at -131 or better) and look to take a piece off live if he's slowing at the end of Round 1.

Bets

• Warlley Alves (-125, 0.5u at DraftKings)

Terrance McKinney vs. Ismael Bonfim

Crowdsourced Projections: Terrance McKinney (51%)

McKinney has generated a ton of hype early in his UFC career with a record-setting knockout and a high-paced fighting style; his four UFC bouts have lasted 7 minutes and 52 seconds combined (longest 3:17). Fifteen of McKinney's 17 career bouts have ended in the first round.

McKinney is a strong wrestler with incredible power for the division, and he should be the more prominent man in the cage against Bonfim (a two-inch advantage in both height and reach).

Still, he's also a frontrunner who tends to wilt when facing adversity. And his wrestling drains his suspect gas tank.

McKinney is a problem for any lightweight on the planet in the first few minutes. But Bonfim has proven himself durable – and if he survives the first round, he should take over down the stretch.

As a result, Bonfim – and his cardio advantage – is the apparent side from a live-betting perspective. Still, I could also see him scoring a Round 1 finish by countering in an exchange or battering a tiring McKinney at the end of the round – so it's OK to invest pre-fight.

The longer the fight goes, the clearer Bonfim should pull away on skill and technique. Still, McKinney should have openings early in the fight to land and close the show.

While I'm not banking on a decision or Bonfim winning by decision (projected +716, listed +900 at DraftKings), my projections trend in that direction. It's almost impossible for me to get near this type of extreme pricing on a fight to finish at -900 or 90% implied.

Still, you can use those factors to boost a payout with a likelier chance of winning, such as an SGP at DraftKings with Bonfim and Over 0.5 Rounds at +160.

So, instead of betting a straight moneyline for Bonfim to win 49% of the time to break even at +105, you're taking him to clear a 38.5% bar at +160 to survive 2.5 minutes and flip the script.

Surely, Bonfim can win within the opening 2.5 minutes; however, I expect him to be on the defensive essentially and likely find himself on his back defending from the bottom.

Either Bonfim's moneyline – or that SGP with the Over 0.5 Rounds – is worthy of a small bet pre-fight. Then I would look to add live to his side after Round 1.

Bets

• SGP (+160, 0.25u): Ismael Bonfim and Over 1.5 Rounds
• Live bet Ismael Bonfim after Round 1

Luan Lacerda vs. Cody Stamann

Crowdsourced Projections: Cody Stamann (77.2%)

After fighting top contenders such as Aljamin Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, Merab Dvalishvili and the rising Said Nurmagomedov in the past four years, Stamann will see significant class relief against a debutant in Luan Lacerda.

Stamann should be the superior striker, and while he doesn't carry a ton of power, Lacerda's defense and durability seem well below average for the UFC level.

The Brazilian wants to get this fight to the mat, but Stamann should be able to counter-wrestle and keep the fight standing despite a seven-inch reach discrepancy.

Still, MMA is a wild sport, and most fights – as they extend – tend to hit the ground at some point.

Moreover, Stamann tends to wrestle offensively (2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, 42% accuracy) to win fights. And while proactively grappling may not be in his best interest here, fighters tend to fall back on what they know in the heat of the moment rather than optimizing their path to victory for the duration of their matchups.

In other words, Stamann has the tools to justify his steep pricetag in this matchup if he counter-wrestles and strikes, but he also tends to wrestle and give up his neck as he shoots – which could play right into Lacerda's hands.

While I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, I do like the fight to end inside the distance (projected 40%, +149 implied) slightly more often than the odds (+160 at Caesars) suggest. I'll allocate a small wager since Stamann isn't a power puncher.

As for round robins, I'll use Lacerda by submission (projected +576), with some books sitting as high as +700.

Bets

• Fight ends Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u at Caesars)

Mounir Lazzez vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Crowdsourced Projections: Gabriel Bonfim (61.1%)

The younger Bonfim – Gabriel – seemingly has the higher ceiling between the two debutant brothers and enters Saturday with an undefeated record and a 100% finish rate.

Bonfim's grappling upside is seemingly baked into the line, and I don't recommend a bet on either side of this fight. His hands are underrated, and I think the striking will be competitive, but I expect Lazzez to land more volume at kickboxing range. His four-inch reach advantage should prove the difference.

Lazzez has shown solid first-level takedown defense too, but one successful takedown may be enough for Bonfim to finish the fight. And while Bonfim has shown questionable cardio, I'm not sold on Lazzez's stamina either.

Bonfim by submission (projected +198, listed +220 at BetRivers) is a decent round-robin piece; otherwise, I'm happy to simply watch this one.

Bets

• Pass

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida

Crowdsourced Projections: Jailton Almeida (92%)

Almeida continues to take on heavyweights despite lingering as one of the more exciting prospects for the 205-pound division. Limiting his weight-cutting will help him stay active as he searches for his fourth consecutive win within a calendar year since making his UFC debut.

In three UFC wins – all in the first round – Almeida has out-landed his opponents 65-1 on significant strikes while securing six of his seven takedown attempts,

Most astoundingly, Almeida has spent 96.2% of his octagon time controlling his opponents.

That doesn't include his Contenders Series appearance, which was his most competitive bout with the promotion:

While Almeida ascends toward title contention, Abdurakhimov has lost three consecutive bouts by knockout and has looked older and slower than his 41 years of age in his past two fights following a two-year layoff during the pandemic.

He doesn't have the takedown defense (47%) to keep the fight standing and may not have the defensive grappling to survive on the mat.

Aside from injury, Almeida seems like a free square in parlays (for however much it increase the payout) or as an anchor in DFS lineups.

Otherwise, I can't recommend betting on this fight.

Bets

• Parlay (-141, 0.5u at DraftKings): Jailton Almeida (-975), Thiago Moises (-365) and Gilbert Burns (-460)

Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa

Crowdsourced Projections: Thiago Moises (80.1%)

After fighting the likes of Islam Makhachev and a promising young contender in Joel Alvarez, Moises has had the chance to get back on track with some class relief after his recent win over Christos Giagos and with this upcoming booking against a debutant in Costa.

Moises is typically a fighter I look to bet against – he's a low-volume striker who has failed to grapple in the past proactively, and I wouldn't go laying a large sum on his side as a straight bet, regardless of my projection.

That said, while the striking exchanges should be competitive – if not favor Costa at points – Moises has a clear path to victory on the mat, and his submission prop (projected +177, listed +240 at BetRivers) seems worth a poke as a straight bet, on top of its inclusion in a round robin.

Bets

• Thiago Moises wins by Submission (+240, 0.1u at BetRivers)

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira

Crowdsourced Projections: Gregory Rodrigues (75.4%)

Rodrigues, aka "Robocop," has become one of the best action fighters in the middleweight division. And he's also one of the most resilient fighters on the roster, fighting through an injury in his last bout in which you could see inside his skull.

While he'll be the much bigger fighter in the cage (four inches taller, three-inch reach advantage) and offers substantial grappling upside, Rodrigues tends to engage in high-variance brawls, making his moneyline unplayable in its current price range.

If Rodrigues decides to grapple proactively, he could justify that pricetag. Still, he tends to start his fights swinging with opponents – which is exactly what Ferreira, a dangerous power puncher, wants from his opponents.

I don't trust the cardio or durability of either fighter; as a result, I expect to see a finish on either side.

I don't project value on this fight from any betting perspective – moneyline, total, or prop – so we'll move on.

Bets

• Pass

Mauricio Rua vs. Ihor Potieria

Crowdsourced Projections: Ihor Potieria (64.8%)

For a further breakdown of Saturday's featured prelim – and Shogun Rua's retirement fight – check out the fight preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I'll keep my analysis relatively brief since I largely agree with Billy's assessment.

Shogun looks painfully washed, but Potieria is not UFC caliber, and prime Shogun would be -1000 against this very same version of his opponent.

Potieria will likely win the first round – if not finish in the first round – at a high clip. His speed, footwork, and power should all pose problems for his older opponent. Still, Potieria's cardio is minimal, and Shogun may have a path to work his way back into the fight in the second and third rounds.

As a result, either a tiny sprinkle on Rua by decision pre-fight (projected +417, listed +460 at FanDuel) or a live entry on Rua after Round 1 would be my approach here.

And I'll certainly include that decision prop in the round-robin.

Bets

• Live bet Shogun Rua after Round 1

Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker

Crowdsourced Projections: Johnny Walker (62.7%)

This light heavyweight clash between a pair of meme machines is my favorite fight on Saturday's undercard.

No fighter consistently pulls victory from the jaws of defeat like Craig, while Walker's dynamic power and wonky chin have led to some wild, high-variance exchanges in his matchups.

Walker should get the best of the striking and make the most of his six-inch reach advantage, but Craig could be a touch busier with his kicks, leading to some problematic scoring for the judges.

This fight is highly likely to end inside the distance, however. Still, I view Walker as the superior minute winner and generally find Craig's finish props misaligned relative to his moneyline.

I had difficulty finding an actionable bet on Saturday's main card opener.

FanDuel has a submission line on Craig (+340) that is misaligned with the market, but they have left his finish odds (+210) shorter than other books; essentially, they're betting on a Craig knockout, which isn't impossible given Walker's questionable chin.

This is a high-variance matchup in which either man can score a knockout or secure a submission, and I see no reason to force a bet on either side if the value isn't there.

That being said, Craig's moneyline has continually climbed throughout the week, and I'd be more interested in playing him around +180 than the current pricing.

Bets

• Pass

Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy

Crowdsourced Projections: Jessica Andrade (82.9%)

Unlike Andrade's recent opponents, Murphy is a big flyweight who will own a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage in this matchup.

The line presumed that Andrade should have a significant power and physicality advantage in this matchup and a big speed advantage.

However, Murphy's size could pose problems for the Brazilian, and I suspect she can stay safe and keep the fight more competitive than the moneyline price suggests.

The betting markets consistently underrate Murphy. She has a well-rounded skillset, shows good cardio, and has proven challenging to finish. There's a chance she can take Andrade down, consolidate the top position, and kill some clock.

While I'm not betting on Murphy to win the fight, we are banking on her ability to keep the proceedings competitive. And Andrade possesses the vast majority of the finishing upside.

Murphy by decision (projected +682, listed +750 at BetRivers) and Andrade by decision (projected +141, listed +165 at DraftKings) both align with my projection on the fight reaching a decision (projected -119, listed +105 at BetRivers).

However, we're going to stick with that bet on the Over 2.5

Bets

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-113, 0.5u at BetRivers)

Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny

Crowdsourced Projections: Gilbert Burns (84.6%)

Despite standing four inches shorter, Burns has all the tools to completely dismantle Magny, despite a nine-inch reach discrepancy between the pair.

Magny struggles against offensive grapplers and leg kickers – and Burns does both of those things exceptionally well.

Burns should have a clear power advantage in the matchup too. Magny can likely jab him up from range on the feet, but if Burns enters the pocket and continually hammers that lead leg, he could turn Magny into a sitting duck for some left hooks and overhands rights.

Still, Burns – a world champion grappler – should look to wrestle proactively. Magny wins fights by jabbing up opponents and mixing in takedowns, but he'll only be able to do one of those things against Burns, an extremely dangerous submission grappler.

And Magny's long limbs often prove a detriment on the ground since opponents have more surface area to control him – or hunt for submissions.

Burns should land significantly more damage throughout the fight, given the power discrepancy, and it's difficult to envision a path to victory for Magny unless Burns' cardio ultimately falls off a cliff since Magny's cardio is potentially his greatest attribute.

If you're looking to bet on Magny, wait until after Round 1 to bet him live; Burns should win the first round at a very high percentage.

I see value in Burns' moneyline (projected -550) and on both his KO/TKO (projected +294) and submission (projected +238) props. Furthermore, I see value in his odds of winning inside the distance (projected -121, listed +100 at BetMGM).

I'll play the finish prop and use Burns as a key parlay piece.

Bets

• • Gilbert Burns wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100 at BetMGM, 0.5u)

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Crowdsourced Projections: Deiveson Figueiredo (53.7%)

For a further breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and flyweight title bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

I bet on Figueiredo – in some fashion or another – in each of the first three legs of this rivalry.

My analysis has been essentially unchanged since that last fight. Given Figueiredo's particularly complicated weight cut and depleted performance, you can draw a line through the result of the second fight; however, you still have to factor his age – and the potential for another bad weight cut – into the overall handicap.

Assuming both men are at 100% – which is never the case, but how we have to handicap fights – we should be in store for a third competitive, extended affair with razor-close striking numbers (137-132 Figueiredo in the first fight, 105-86 Moreno in the second fight) and tough rounds to score for judging purposes.

While Moreno is the more active striker (9.1 to 5.9 significant strike attempts per minute), Figueiredo is far more accurate (56% to 39%) and hits way harder. He has wobbled Moreno multiple times throughout the trilogy and inflicted more damage in most rounds, even while Moreno landed more volume.

And in Brazil, one would have to imagine the likelihood a close round is scored in favor of the hometown champion is undoubtedly higher than it would be for either of their last two encounters – with Moreno partisan crowds just north of Mexico, in Arizona and Southern California.

Moreno is the better wrestler with superior cardio. And after a one-year hiatus since their last fight, 35-year-old Figueiredo may have lost just a fraction of his abilities – enough to flip the tides in this fourth matchup.

I would expect to see Moreno mix in more takedown attempts this time (he landed four of eight in the first fight, both in the second fight, and one of two attempts in the third fight).

Still, I view Figueiredo as the favorite and would consider adding more to my position, depending on line movement. You can bet his moneyline to -110, at just under a 2% edge compared to my number.

I don't see value in the total or any winning method props for this fight.

Bets

• Deiveson Figueiredo (+105, 0.5u at DraftKings)

Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill

Crowdsourced Projections: Jamahal Hill (51.5%)

Check out my full fight preview for additional analysis of Saturday's main event, including a statistical comparison.

In short, I projected Teixeira as a slight underdog (48.5%, +106 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline down to +115 (46.5%).

In the winning method market, I see a little value in Teixeira's submission prop (projected +243, listed +275 at BetRivers) and his inside-the-distance or finish prop (projected +158, listed +175 at DraftKings). However, I would prefer to bet his moneyline at a similar edge.

Teixeira can keep things competitive on the feet; his boxing is highly underrated for someone with exemplary grappling skills. And he should be more competitive in the striking than Hill is in the grappling.

If Teixeira can get Hill to the mat, he will look like a dominant favorite. Teixeira may finish the fight with one takedown; he is as good at passing and finishing from the top position as anyone in MMA.

Teixeira is the best grappler Hill has ever faced – but Hill is far from the best striker whom Teixeira has seen. For that reason alone, it isn't easy to put Teixeira below 50% in this matchup, regardless of his age and physical attributes.

Bets

• Glover Teixeira (+120, 0.5u at DraftKings)

Zerillo's UFC 283 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

• Oliveira / Marcos, Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.5 units at WynnBET)
• Murphy/Andrade, Over 2.5 Rounds (-113, 0.5u at BetRivers)

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

• Lacerda/Stamann, Fight ends Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u at Caesars)
• Thiago Moises wins by Submission (+240, 0.1u at BetRivers)
• Gilbert Burns wins by KO/TKO/DQ, or Submission (+100 at BetMGM, 0.5u)

Moneylines

• Warrley Alves (-125, 0.5u at DraftKings)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (+105, 0.5u at DraftKings)
• Glover Teixeira (+120, 0.5u at DraftKings)

Parlays

• SGP (+160, 0.25u): Ismael Bonfim and Over 1.5 Rounds
• Parlay (-141, 0.5u at DraftKings): Jailton Almeida (-975), Thiago Moises (-365), and Gilbert Burns (-460)

Live Betting Notes

• Live bet Ismael Bonfim after Round 1
• Live bet Shogun Rua after Round 1