Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy Odds
It's former champ vs. former title challenger when Jessica Andrade meets flyweight Lauren Murphy on Saturday's UFC 283 main card.
Andrade is on a 3-1 run, which included a recent strawweight win over Amanda Lemos. Murphy, meanwhile, is riding high after her recent win over former titleholder Miesha Tate.
Is heavy favorite Andrade the right play? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Murphy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 23-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:33 | 9:31 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 62" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/27/1983 | 9/25/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.84 | 6.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.45 | 5.16 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.11 | 2.85 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 55% |
| TD Def | 71% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.5 |
Unlike Andrade's recent opponents, Murphy is a big flyweight who will own a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage in this matchup.
The line presumed that Andrade should have a significant power and physicality advantage in this matchup and a big speed advantage.
However, Murphy's size could pose problems for the Brazilian, and I suspect she can stay safe and keep the fight more competitive than the moneyline price suggests.
The betting markets consistently underrate Murphy. She has a well-rounded skillset, shows good cardio, and has proven challenging to finish.
There's a chance she can take Andrade down, consolidate the top position, and kill some clock.
Andrade vs. Murphy Pick
While I'm not betting on Murphy to win the fight, we are banking on her ability to keep the proceedings competitive. And Andrade possesses the vast majority of the finishing upside.
Murphy by decision (projected +682, listed +750 at BetRivers) and Andrade by decision (projected +141, listed +165 at DraftKings) both align with my projection on the fight reaching a decision (projected -119, listed +105 at BetRivers).
However, we're going to stick with that bet on the Over 2.5.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-113, 0.5u at BetRivers)
