UFC 284 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for All 13 Fights

On Saturday at UFC 284, the UFC returns to Perth, Australia, for a 13-fight card, headlined by a lightweight title bout between the No. 1 and No. 2 fighters in the men's pound-for-pound rankings:

Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski will clash for the former's 155-pound title.

The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass before simulcasting on ESPN beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET via ESPN+ pay-per-view.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 284 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by Decision, knockout, or Submission.

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

UFC 284 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by Decision, knockout, or Submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 284 Odds

Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Elves Brenner

Crowdsourced Projections: Zubaira Tukhugov (81.8%)

Tukhugov is the biggest favorite on Saturday's card, but he's a bit flakey, and I would rarely trust him at such a significant moneyline price.

He's perhaps most famous for landing a right hand on Conor McGregor after the Irishman's fight with Tukhugov's friend and teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Tukhugov doesn't have nearly the same level of top control as Nurmagomedov. And both his striking output and durability are underwhelming. As a result, he has a fairly balanced but middle-of-the-road skillset, with which he cannot emphasize or lean on one particular attribute.

Moreover, Tukhugov has struggled to make weight in the past and has moved up to lightweight for this bout with Brenner, the taller and longer fighter (four-inch reach advantage).

Moving up in weight should help Tukhugov's gas tank; he previously struggled with cardio at 145. Still, he may struggle to control larger opponents, negating the potential cardio benefit.

While I would love to bet against Tukhugov with an actual UFC lightweight, Brenner is a debutant who tends to get stuck on bottom for long periods of his fights, playing into the type of blanketing gameplan that Tukhugov can use to coast to a decision.

I'll take some exposure to Brenner in DFS lineups; otherwise, I'll pass on betting on this fight.

I don't project any value from a moneyline, total, or prop perspective, aside from a slight edge on Brenner by submission (projected +1000, listed +1100 at DraftKings).

Bets

• Pass

Shane Young vs. Blake Bilder

Crowdsourced Projections: Shane Young (56.6%)

Young is more of a point fighter while Bilder has an aggressive kill-or-be-killed style. That leads to an interesting assessment from a total perspective. The under and any inside-the-distance props likely favor the underdog, Bilder, whereas the goes-to-decision and late-round props likely favor Young.

Bilder likely has the power advantage in this matchup and may sway optics on the judges' scorecards with any close rounds.

Young is the more well-rounded fighter, possesses most of the grappling upside, and likely has superior cardio.

As a result, I'm going to target Young as a live bet after Round 1. From a prefight perspective, I'll look to take Young by Decision (projected +253, listed +260 at FanDuel) or play an SGP with Young and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+150 at DraftKings).

As you'll see throughout this piece, I'll emphasize a similar betting approach in bouts with these cardio dynamics.

Bets

• SGP: Shane Young & Over 1.5 Rounds (+150, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• Shane Young Live after Round 1

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Elise Reed

Crowdsourced Projections: Loma Lookboonmee (78.2%)

The UFC's first Thai fighter, Lookboonmee, is the only favorite I show value in backing from a straight moneyline perspective on Saturday.

I projected her price at -317 (76% implied), and you can find her as long as -280 (73.7% implied) on FanDuel. However, I probably wouldn't play her past -285 (74% implied) in a straight bet.

Lookboonmee is small for the strawweight division, and she would be better served at atomweight. However, the UFC doesn't have a 105-pound division, so Lookboonmee is forced to get inside on her opponents and dominate clinch positions.

She may be able to land takedowns against Reed too. Lookboonmee has shown surprising grappling chops (3.9 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy), and her ability to mix trips and takedowns alongside her clinch striking has proven beneficial to the overall flow of her game.

Reed has her best success at range, fighting on the outside of the octagon and using her length to point fight against opponents. While she'll be the taller and longer fighter against Lookboonmee (two inches in both categories), I doubt Lookboonmee will give Reed much room to operate and fight at her desired distance or tempo.

Lookboonmee should cruise here with a skill and output advantage. I could see an attritional-based stoppage later in the fight; however, I don't see value in the total or any winning method props.

Instead, we'll play Lookboonmee in a parlay (up to about -315).

Bets

• Parlay (-122, Risk 0.5u at BetRivers): Loma Lookboonmee (-295) & Jamie Mullarkey (-275)

Jack Jenkins vs. Don Shainis

Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Jenkins (76.3%)

Jenkins will make his official UFC debut after winning a contract on Contender Series while Shainis will look to bounce back from a quick short-notice debut loss against Sodiq Yusuff.

Jenkins applies a ton of forward pressure to his opponents and uses his cardio and leg kicks to wear them down. He's an adept wrestler with good top pressure and fights at an exhausting pace.

I expect to see many grappling exchanges in the fight with the two featherweights constantly trying to beat one another to the next position.

As a result, I'm not particularly interested in the under – though that is seemingly a popular play this week; there could be a lot of 50/50 positions and a ticking clock without much action.

Although I don't see value in either side of the moneyline, I expect this fight to see the scorecards more often than the odds suggest (projected +168, listed +190 at FanDuel), and I would bet that prop down to around +180.

Alternatively – or in addition – you can bet Jenkins to win by Decision (projected +275, listed +320 at BetRivers) or play an SGP with Jenkins and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+135 at DraftKings).

Lastly, Jenkins is a perfect live betting target if his price improves at all after Round 1.

Bets

• Fight goes to Decision (+190, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• SGP: Jack Jenkins & Over 1.5 Rounds (+130, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• Jack Jenkins Live after Round 1

Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado

Crowdsourced Projections: Jamie Mullarkey (72.7%)

Prado is a raw UFC debutant with a 100% finish rate – an archetype that typically falters and fades when extended against better-caliber opponents at the UFC level.

Conversely, Mullarkey is a slow starter whose pace and momentum build the longer his fights go. Mullarkey puts opponents through the grinder, wears them down, and increases his chances of winning the later rounds of his fights.

If Prado cannot land an early knockout in this matchup, Mullarkey should be able to drown him with cardio and grappling and eventually find a finish in the latter stages of the fight – or win a wide decision with a potential 10-8 round.

While I considered betting Mullarkey and the Over 1.5 Rounds in an SGP (+130 at DraftKings), I find the odds far more appealing on Mullarkey to win in Round 2 (+550 at FanDuel) or Round 3 (+1000 at FanDuel).

Moreover, you can look to live bet Mullarkey after Round 1 as Prado's effectiveness starts to wane. And I would consider adding Mullarkey to a moneyline parlay at a break-even price (-265) or better. '

I expect the Aussie to proactively grapple and take advantage of Prado's subpar takedown defense. He's the bigger man (two inches taller, five-inch reach advantage), and I expect him to impose his will.

Bets

• Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 2 (+550, 0.15u at FanDuel)
• Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Jamie Mullarkey Live after Round 1

Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

Crowdsourced Projections: Kleydson Rodrigues (76.3%)

I'm surprised the market isn't more optimistic about this flyweight tilt ending inside the distance.

I set the line at 58% (-136), and the market is between -140 and -150. Still, Ross has extremely questionable durability, getting knocked down five times in his past three fights alone, but he's also willing to die on his sword, biting down on the mouthpiece and forcing exchanges in the pocket.

Rodrigues is an imposing physical force who dropped his UFC debut as a -400 favorite but is getting similar respect for his sophomore effort.

I'm still uncertain where I fall on Rodrigues' ceiling as a fighter. He's relatively inexperienced, but 27 isn't necessarily young for flyweight.

And these dramatic moneyline prices may not be justifiable in the long run.

While I don't necessarily project actionable value on this fight from any perspective, the pace should be incredibly hot. I'm willing to bet on Rodrigues inside the distance (projected +118, listed +125 at BetMGM) at a small edge for small stakes.

And I would consider betting the fight to end inside the distance (projected -136, listed -135 at BetMGM) as an alternative.

Bets

• Kleydson Rodrigues wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u at BetMGM)

Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Crowdsourced Projections: Joshua Culibao (51.2%)

The Culibao-Baghsaryan matchup is the most closely lined fight on Saturday's card; depending upon the book, you can get a 10-cent differential between -115 and -105 on the same fighter.

I'm curious to see where the line closes by fight time, but I lean toward Culibao as the slight favorite; he owns a three-inch reach advantage and likely has the edges in cardio and wrestling.

I don't expect to see much grappling between these two strikers. Still, if the fight hits the mat, I expect Culibao to have the advantage; MMA fights tend to hit the ground more often than not.

Moreover, Culibao is the better puncher while Baghdasaryan has the superior kicking game. I generally side with the better puncher because head strikes play better for judges than leg and body strikes.

However, the skill level and optics in this fight should be reasonably balanced, and I expect a close and competitive affair where the winner may be difficult to determine.

I don't see either fighter as particularly powerful for the weight class, and I don't necessarily see durability concerns on either side. Both are extremely careful – and patient – when deciding to throw too.

As a result, I expect a moderate-tempo kickboxing match – in a big cage – in which the likelihood of a finish is well below average.

I projected this bout to go to a decision 62.5% of the time (-163 implied) – more than 8% over the division average, and I would bet the fight to go to a decision up to -153 (60.5% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my number.

For round-robin purposes, Culibao by Decision (projected +201, listed +220 at FanDuel) also caught my attention.

Bets

• Fight goes to Decision (-134, 0.5u at FanDuel)

Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Crowdsourced Projections: Tyson Pedro (67%)

After blowing out his leg on an oblique kick from Khalil Rountree in September 2021, Bukauskaus returned to the MMA scene in November and scored a pair of wins in Cage Warriors, including one for the light-heavyweight title, to earn his way back to the UFC.

He'll face the hyped but relatively unchallenged Pedro on short notice to begin his second UFC stint. And will hope to fare better than Pedro's last two opponents, who lost via first-round finish after Pedro returned from a lengthy layoff of his own.

Still, those were layup victories (as a -900 and -1000 favorite, respectively) against bottom-of-the-barrel talent. Bukauskaus, at least, represents a step up in competition and someone who can push Pedro in an extended fight.

Pedro likely has a grappling advantage here, but if he cannot consolidate an early finish or generate takedowns in multiple rounds, Bukauskas may be able to turn the momentum and generate a finishing sequence in the second or third round.

Pedro has fallen apart in extended fights in the past – and never won a bout outside of Round 1. In contrast, Bukauskas has proven championship-level cardio (two wins in the fourth round of title fights in Cage Warriors), which may be his best attribute.

I don't see value in the moneyline, total, or any winning method props for this matchup. However, I would lean toward the over 1.5 rounds prefight and look to live bet Bukauskas after Round 1.

Bets

• Modestas Bukauskas Live after Round 1

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Crowdsourced Projections: Jimmy Crute (61.6%)

Crute returns after consecutive losses and a long layoff following surgery to repair an ACL tear that he had carried for several years.

Still just 26, he'll look to get back on track and impose his grappling against the light heavyweight division. Crute shoots takedowns at a high clip (6.5 attempts per 15 minutes, 75% accuracy) but often takes damage trying to slug it out with opponents first.

That wouldn't be a wise strategy with Menifield, who has a clear power advantage and a history of dispatching opponents early, scoring 12 of 13 wins in the first six minutes of his bouts.

Menifield has good judo and has proven difficult to grapple early in fights (85% takedown defense) when he's fully fresh. Still, opponents who can survive Menifield's early onslaught typically outlast him. And Crute makes a solid live bet after Round 1 since he should take over down the stretch as Menifield tires.

Waiting to place a live wager will also give us time to assess how Crute looks after his knee surgery, and whether he's moving gingerly or reacting poorly to leg kicks from Menifield, for example.

Although I expect Crute to win the majority of striking exchanges in the second and third rounds, he could be in danger on the feet in the first five or six minutes. And it's in his best interest to grapple from the opening bell.

Although I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total, Menfield to win in Round 1 (+500 by FanDuel) or by KO/TKO (projected +225, listed +255 at BetRivers) is a worthy consideration in any of his fights.

Alternatively, you could look to bet an SGP at DraftKings with Menifield and the under 1.5 Rounds (+370), which seemingly covers the vast majority of his win condition – likely far more than the percentage compared to his moneyline price.

At +370, you're betting on a 21.3% break-even price. At +160 to back Menifield straight, you're betting a 38.5% break-even price.

I would say, fairly confidently, that Menifield's win condition in the first 7.5 minutes is higher than 55.3% of his potential victory outcomes, the number implied by the SGP pricing, as compared to his moneyline (21.3% out of 38.5%)

As a result, I'll look to take a small prefight position with the Menifield SGP and roll that into a live bet on Crute after Round 1.

From a prefight perspective, Crute by Decision (projected +441, listed +575) or an SGP with Crute and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+235) would be the best way to bet the favorite.

Bets

• SGP: Alonso Menifield & Under 1.5 Rounds (+370, 0.1u at DraftKings)
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1

Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter

Crowdsourced Projections: Parker Porter (54.3%)

I discussed Porter as my best bet on our UFC 284 episode of Action Network Podcast.

I project Porter as a slight favorite in what amounts to a coin-flip type of heavyweight matchup, and getting plus-money prefight is an easy investment.

Aside from pure power and early finishing upside, he possesses almost all the advantages in the fight. Most importantly, Porter has more striking volume – thus and more minute-winning ability, better cardio, and all of the grappling upside.

While Tafa has shown decent first-level takedown defense, he showed himself to be an absolute fish on his back regionally. And he may be one of the worst grapplers on the UFC roster.

Moreover, once you tire out Tafa, his power tends to drop dramatically, unlike some heavyweights who carry their power through fatigue. As a result, Porter may be out of danger here if he can survive the first few minutes and try to tire out Tafa as quickly as possible.

Porter should look to pursue takedowns early or at least press Tafa on the cage, hold him there, and wear down his energy.

Even if he gets knocked down but recovers and loses the first round, the more attritional work Porter can put in, the better. He should win this matchup's second and third rounds at drastically increasing percentages.

Unless Tafa scores multiple knockdowns, it's difficult to envision Porter losing a decision; the volume discrepancy should be massive over the final 10 minutes.

And if Porter gets a takedown in any round, that could be enough to secure the round in his favor – if not finish the fight.

I projected Porter as a -120 favorite and would bet his moneyline up to -111 prefight. Additionally, add more on his side live after Round 1.

Although I show substantial value on Porter's decision prop (projected +268, listed +360 at FanDuel), I will pass on that bet.

There's a distinct possibility that Tafa can't recover after a takedown at any point – and gets finished – or that he is overwhelmed for an attritional-based stoppage in the third round.

Rather than the decision prop, I'd prefer to bet Porter in an SGP at DraftKings with the Over 0.5 Rounds (+130 SGP) or Over 1.5 Rounds (+220 SGP) if you're looking for a boosted payout.

However, his moneyline is still very actionable at current levels – and certainly my preferred bet on the card.

Bets

• Parker Porter (+110, 0.75u at DraftKings)
• Parker Porter Live after Round 1

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown

Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Della Maddalena (67.1%)

Local product Jack Della Maddalena hopes to delight fans and deliver a fourth consecutive first-round knockout on Saturday. The Contender Series alum has shown incredibly slick boxing and timing with underrated power at the UFC level.

Still, he'll receive a significant step up in competition on Saturday against Randy "Rudeboy" Brown, who will own significant advantages in height (four inches) and reach (five inches) and all of the grappling upside.

Moreover, while Brown represents the most difficult test of Maddalena's career, you can't say the same for "Rudeboy," who has faced top-15-caliber competition for the past six years.

Still, Brown has some poor defensive tendencies, which could get him in trouble here. He tends to back himself up to the fence and rely on head movement rather than blocking to avoid strikes. Maddalena throws extended combinations and could catch Brown toward the end of those longer combos, particularly on his long torso.

Although Maddalena's boxing is aesthetic, he's also fairly one-dimensional as an MMA fighter. He doesn't throw a ton of kicks or mix in any grappling, and his defensive technique and skill both up against the fence in the clinch and flat on his back on the canvas are relatively untested at this level.

While Brown doesn't always proactively grapple (two takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 33% accuracy) – since he's such a smooth and entertaining striker – his easiest path to victory in this fight may be to hold Maddalena up against the fence in the clinch or try to take him down and control him for multiple rounds.

Brown may look like a favorite if he grapples from the outset, and I certainly see value in his submission prop (listed +1300 at FanDuel, projected +912) or inside the distance prop (projected +506, listed +700 at FanDuel).

Furthermore, I'm not confident that Maddella is more durable than Brown. Maddella was knocked out regionally and wobbled on several occasions. And Brown hits much harder than his knockout odds (+1200 around the market) would indicate.

While I expect to see a finish in this matchup, I can't bet into that market (projected -201, listed -200 to end inside the distance).

However, you can bet Brown down to around +225 (30.7% implied) prefight, with smaller sprinkles on his inside the distance and submission props.

If Maddalena doesn't score an early knockout, Brown will be much more competitive – and live for a finish – than his odds suggest. He's tall, long,  versatile and awkward to win clean minutes against.

Bets

• Randy Brown (+265, 0.5u at WynnBet)
• Randy Brown wins Inside the Distance (+700, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Randy Brown wins by Submission (+1300, 0.1u at WynnBet)

Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett

Crowdsourced Projections: Yair Rodriguez (63.7%)

For a further breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and interim featherweight title bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

I largely agree with Dan's assessment – from his critique of the meritocracy of this fight being for a belt – to his betting analysis concerning the total.

I projected this fight to end inside the distance 53.7% of the time (-116 implied), and I'm happy to grab that prop plus money in what should be a barnburner.

Rodriguez's speed and outside kicking game against Emmett's power punching and wrestling presents an interesting stylistic clash, especially throughout five rounds.

By using his wrestling, Emmett has more upside to look like a big favorite – and pull away on the scorecards over 25 minutes. The Team Alpha Male product doesn't proactively grapple (2.6 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) for multiple reasons:

1. He carries as much power, pound for pound, as any fighter in the UFC.
2. It drains his gas tank.
3. Of late, he may be dealing with hidden injuries.

Concerning the injuries, rumors have swirled this week about a bum hip for Emmett. Rodriguez's odds have swelled around 3% from -160 to -180 recently. And the betting public is on guard after recent title fights (ex. Dillashaw vs. Sterling) in which one combatant was compromised before the fight.

And since Emmett doesn't typically have the confidence in his cardio to sustain a grappling-heavy gameplan over three rounds, I doubt he can pursue takedowns and control time for five rounds, despite Rodriguez's porous takedown defense (62%).

Still, Emmett can't stay on the outside and get chewed up by his opponent's kicks in a moderate-tempo kickboxing match. He loses that fight 99 times out of 100. Emmett must crash the pocket, swing overhands, look to land takedowns, and maybe try to finish the fight from top position.

Emmett is a far better defensive striker (63%) than Rodriguez (53%), and I expect him to land the more powerful and damaging blows with the hands. As a result, stealing a decision on the scorecards with power optics isn't out of the realm of possibility. But Emmett may need a knockdown or wobble or two.

Traditionally, Rodriguez isn't a good minute winner; he's often trailing on the scorecards until landing a killshot on his opponents.

Still, Emmett's best chances to win the fight are to force high-variance exchanges or look to dominate on the mat. I expect him to come forward and force a finish, eventually.

While I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, Rodriguez by KO/TKO (projected +293, listed +300 at FanDuel) and Emmett inside the distance (projected +361, listed +380 at DraftKings) are both solid options in the prop market.

Still, I prefer the inside-the-distance prop, up to about -107 (51.7% implied).

Bets

• Fight ends Inside the Distance (+110, 0.75u at WynnBet)

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Crowdsourced Projections: Islam Makhachev (74.1%)

Check out my full fight preview for additional analysis of Saturday's main event, including a statistical comparison.

In short, I projected Islam Makhachev as a 74.1% favorite (-281 implied).

As a result, I see Alexander Volkanovski as the value side of the moneyline. However, I would need around +318 (23.9% implied) or better to bet Volk with at least a 2% edge (projected 25.9%) compared to my number.

I would wait until closer to fight time for the best available number; the line should increase as parlay money comes in on Makhachev.

For now, bet the fight ends inside the distance (-165 at BetMGM). I projected that prop at -195 (66.1% implied) and would bet it up to around -180 (64.3% implied), just below a 2% edge.

Lastly, if you're looking to bet the favorite, I prefer Makhachev by Submission (projected +125, listed +165 at DraftKings) to his moneyline.

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-165, Risk 1u at BetMGM)

Zerillo's UFC 284 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

• Jenkins/Shainis, Fight goes to Decision (+190, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• Baghdasaryan/Culibao, Fight goes to Decision (-134, 0.5u at FanDuel)

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

• Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 2 (+550, 0.15u at FanDuel)
• Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Kleydson Rodrigues wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u at BetMGM)
• Randy Brown wins Inside the Distance (+700, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Randy Brown wins by Submission (+1300, 0.1u at WynnBet)
• Emmett/Rodriguez, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+110, 0.75u at WynnBet)
• Makhachev/Volkanovski, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-165, Risk 1u at BetMGM)

Moneylines

• Parker Porter (+110, 0.75u at DraftKings)
• Randy Brown (+265, 0.5u at WynnBet)

Parlays

• SGP: Shane Young & Over 1.5 Rounds (+150, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• Parlay (-122, Risk 0.5u at BetRivers): Loma Lookboonmee (-295) & Jamie Mullarkey (-275)
• SGP: Jack Jenkins & Over 1.5 Rounds (+130, 0.25u at DraftKings)
• SGP: Alonso Menifield & Under 1.5 Rounds (+370, 0.1u at DraftKings)

Live Betting Notes

• Shane Young Live after Round 1
• Jack Jenkins Live after Round 1
• Jamie Mullarkey Live after Round 1
• Modestas Bukauskas Live after Round 1
• Parker Porter Live after Round 1
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1